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由观测复发间隔得到的经验地震概率 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
给定断层段在前面一次破裂后某一特定时间T发生破裂的概率P,可由观测到的该断层段上复发间隔的样本作经验性的评估。假设的全部条件是特定时间段内破裂的概率与该断层段上所有破裂轮回的概率相同。假定观测到的n个复发间隔中有m个与前面一次地震后段T内发生破裂的轮回相应。新的一次轮回中破裂也落在最近一次地震后时间段T内的概率密度由β分布P(p│m,n)={(n+1)!/[m!(n-m)!]}p^m(1-p)^n 相似文献
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Planetary nebulae (PNe) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) offer the unique opportunity to study both the population and evolution of low- and intermediate-mass stars, by means of the morphological type of the nebula. Using observations from our LMC PN morphological survey, and including images available in the Hubble Space Telescope Data Archive and published chemical abundances, we find that asymmetry in PNe is strongly correlated with a younger stellar population, as indicated by the abundance of elements that are unaltered by stellar evolution (Ne, Ar, and S). While similar results have been obtained for Galactic PNe, this is the first demonstration of the relationship for extragalactic PNe. We also examine the relation between morphology and abundance of the products of stellar evolution. We found that asymmetric PNe have higher nitrogen and lower carbon abundances than symmetric PNe. Our two main results are broadly consistent with the predictions of stellar evolution if the progenitors of asymmetric PNe have on average larger masses than the progenitors of symmetric PNe. The results bear on the question of formation mechanisms for asymmetric PNe-specifically, that the genesis of PNe structure should relate strongly to the population type, and by inference the mass, of the progenitor star and less strongly on whether the central star is a member of a close binary system. 相似文献
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Dauvin JC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(1-6):271-281
The European Water Framework Directive will have instituted the concept of Ecological Quality Status (EQS) as a way to assess the biological quality of water masses. The EQS will be based mainly upon the composition of the different biological compartments in the ecosystem specially the benthos as compared to certain reference sites. Such management tools are already well established for freshwater (i.e. biotic indices), but not for coastal and estuarine (i.e. transitional) waters. In the framework of the Seine-Aval programme a workshop on benthic indicators was organized at Wimereux (France) in June 2005. The aim of this workshop and this paper is (1) to present the experiences of the Seine Aval researchers, and the French scientific approaches to benthic indicators, with those international experiences and approaches that have been published or are under development; and (2) to examine the existing benthic tools and their possible use in the characterization of the state of estuarine ecosystems. The debate during the workshop and the numerous recently published on the WFD are discussed in term of the implementation of the WFD in transitional water bodies using benthic indicators and indices. Some proposals for the future underline the needs to re-examine and adapt the different index thresholds, to take into account physical disturbances, to inventory the existing conditions vs reference conditions and to be as pragmatic as possible in using the WFD in transitional waters. 相似文献
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