Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Seasonal changes in submarine groundwater discharge to coastal salt ponds estimated using Ra and Ra as tracers

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) to coastal southern Rhode Island was estimated from measurements of the naturally-occurring radioisotopes ²²⁶Ra (t_1/2 = 1600 y) and ²²⁸Ra (t_1/2 = 5.75 y). Surface water and porewater samples were collected quarterly in Winnapaug, Quonochontaug, Ninigret, Green Hill, and Pt. Judith–Potter Ponds, as well as nearly monthly in the surface water of Rhode Island Sound, from January 2002 to August 2003; additional porewater samples were collected in August 2005. Surface water activities ranged from 12–83 dpm 100 L^− 1 (60 dpm = 1 Bq) and 21–256 dpm 100 L^− 1 for ²²⁶Ra and ²²⁸Ra, respectively. Porewater ²²⁶Ra activities ranged from 16–736 dpm 100 L^− 1 (2002–2003) and 95–815 dpm 100 L^− 1 (2005), while porewater ²²⁸Ra activities ranged from 23–1265 dpm 100 L^− 1. Combining these data with a simple box model provided average ²²⁶Ra-based submarine groundwater fluxes ranging from 11–159 L m^− 2 d^− 1 and average ²²⁸Ra-derived fluxes of 15–259 L m^− 2 d^− 1. Seasonal changes in Ra-derived SGD were apparent in all ponds as well as between ponds, with SGD values of 30–472 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Winnapaug Pond), 6–20 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Quonochontaug Pond), 36–273 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Ninigret Pond), 29–76 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Green Hill Pond), and 19–83 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Pt. Judith–Potter Pond). These Ra-derived fluxes are up to two orders of magnitude higher than results predicted by a numerical model of groundwater flow, estimates of aquifer recharge for the study period, and values published in previous Ra-based SGD studies in Rhode Island. This disparity may result from differences in the type of flow (recirculated seawater versus fresh groundwater) determined using each technique, as well as variability in porewater Ra activity.     

Uncertainties associated with Ra and Ra measurements in water via a Delayed Coincidence Counter (RaDeCC)

The short-lived radium isotopes, ²²³Ra (T_1/2 = 11.4 days) and ²²⁴Ra (T_1/2 = 3.66 days), have been successfully used as tracers of several environmental processes, e.g., submarine groundwater discharge, coastal mixing processes, and water residence times. In this paper, the uncertainties associated with ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra measurements using a Radium Delayed Coincidence Counter are determined on a detailed error propagation basis with a confidence interval of 1σ. From the data analyses of several groups of coastal water samples, the calculated relative uncertainties averaged 12% for the ²²³Ra and 7% for the ²²⁴Ra. These uncertainties can decrease for radium-enriched groundwater samples although asymptotic limits have been found at 7% relative uncertainty for ²²³Ra and 4% for ²²⁴Ra. In this paper, the influence of sampling and measurement parameters on the final radium uncertainties is evaluated in order to provide guidance to optimize these factors and obtain more reliable results.     

Trace elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) concentrations in deep Gulf of Mexico sediments

The concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and trace elements were determined for surface (top 2 cm) sediment samples collected during the deep Gulf of Mexico benthos (DGoMB) study .These elements and compounds are known to be toxic to organisms at high concentrations and may affect biological communities. There is no indication of major anthropogenic input of the elements Be, Co, Cr, Fe, Si, Tl, V, K, Mg, Ca, Sr and Zn, based on normalization to Al. The concentrations of these metals in the sediment are a function of the relative amounts of trace-metal-rich Mississippi River-derived silicate material and trace-metal-poor plankton-derived carbonate. This is not true for the elements Ba, Ni, Pb, Cd, As, Cu and Mn, whose concentrations show considerable scatter when normalized to Al and a general enrichment. On a normalized basis, Mn is enriched 5–10 fold, Cu and Ni 2–3 fold and Pb 2 fold over Mississippi River-derived material. These enrichments are likely the result of remobilization of metals from depths in the sediment column where reducing conditions exist. The Ba concentrations at selected sites are higher than those of average clay-rich sediments, but are typical of sediments from near oil well platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the case of Ba, it seems likely that the enrichments, as high as a factor of 10, are due to disposal of oil well drilling mud. The Ba-enriched samples are from the three shallowest water sites in the Mississippi Trough (sites MT1, 2 and 3) and from site C1 and WC5. All are in an area of intense petroleum exploration and development. PAH concentrations are also elevated at MT1, MT3 and C1. The total PAH concentration ranged from not detected (ND) to 1033 ng/g with a mean of 140 ng/g. Even at the sites most enriched in PAHs and trace elements, the concentrations are not at the levels expected to adversely affect the biota. However, these predicted non-effects are based on research using mostly near-shore estuarine species, not on the indigenous species at the sampling sites.     

Organic matter in deepwater sediments of the Northern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to the distribution of benthic organisms

Sediment samples were selected from 28 sites across the deep (212–3527 m) northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) as part of the Deep Gulf of Mexico Benthos (DGoMB) program, and analyzed for geochemical parameters related to organic carbon (OC) distribution and characteristics. The results of this study indicate that the OC content of sediments in the deep northern GOM is controlled by several factors; including water depth, overlying water productivity, sediment carbonate content, sediment oxygen exposure time, OC sources, and regional influences. The best correlation between sediment OC content, on a CaCO₃-free basis, and other parameters examined was an inverse correlation of OC with water depth. The OC/SA ratio had a wide range of values and, along with variable sources of sedimentary OC, indicated that the organism-available concentration of metabolizable organic matter may not be simply related to sedimentary OC content. This was perhaps reflected in the observation that benthic macrofaunal and meiofaunal biomass abundances were well correlated with sedimentary OC, but the abundance of bacteria in sediments was not.     

Conspicuous sediment structures in fossil beach deposits (southern Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain): paleoliquefaction features versus biogenic origin

Tubular-shaped concretions and concretionary dykes occur in Holocene fossil beach deposits between the township of El Médano and Punta Roja in southern Tenerife, Canary Islands. These sediment structures have been interpreted either as the result of (a) the interaction between hot ignimbrites that overflowed wet beaches; (b) fast accumulation of beach sands on hot and degassing ignimbrites; (c) paleoliquefaction caused by an earthquake (seismites). Based on the interpretation as seismites, an intense paleoearthquake with a moment magnitude of M = 6.8 was proposed to be responsible for the generation of the paleoliquefaction structures. However, we here reinterpret the sedimentary structures in question using the general criteria diagnostic for rhizocretions and root tubules with respect to their orientation, size, branching system, and style of cementation and, thus, consider them, to be of biogenic origin.     

Wave diffraction and near-trapping by a multi-column gravity-based structure

This paper is concerned with the diffraction of water waves by offshore structures, with the ultimate aim of proposing tools for guiding airgap design. The diffraction of monochromatic waves by an array of four bottom mounted cylinders and a gravity-based structure is studied in detail using linear and second order theory. The phenomenon of near-trapping is investigated, allowing guidelines for airgap design to be established. When contemplating airgap design, however, it is crucially important that consideration is given to the largest waves in a sea state. Therefore, in this study a design wave, called NewWave, is proposed as a realistic model for large ocean waves and is used as the incident wave field in the wave-structure diffraction analysis.     

Onshore sandbar migration at Tairua Beach (New Zealand): Numerical simulations and field measurements

We observed the onshore migration (3.5 m/day) of a nearshore sandbar at Tairua Beach, New Zealand during 4 days of low-energy wave conditions. The morphological observations, together with concurrent measurements of waves and suspended sediment concentrations, were used to test a coupled, wave-averaged, cross-shore model. Because of the coarse bed material and the relatively low-energy conditions, the contribution of the suspended transport to the total transport was predicted and observed to be negligible. The model predicted the bar to move onshore because of the feedback between near-bed wave skewness, bedload, and the sandbar under weakly to non-breaking conditions at high tide. The predicted bathymetric evolution contrasts, however, with the observations that the bar migrated onshore predominantly at low tide. Also, the model flattened the bar, while in the observations the sandbar retained its steep landward-facing flank. A comparison between available observations and numerical simulations suggests that onshore propagating surf zone bores in very shallow water (< 0.25 m) may have been responsible for most of the observed bar behaviour. These processes are missing from the applied model and, given that the observed conditions can be considered typical of very shallow sandbars, highlight a priority for further field study and model development. The possibility that the excess water transported by the bores across the bar was channelled alongshore to near-by rip-channels further implies that traditional cross-shore measures to judge the applicability of a cross-shore morphodynamic model may be misleading.     

The seasonal cycle of surface chlorophyll in the Peruvian upwelling system: A modelling study

The seasonal variability of surface chlorophyll in the northern Humboldt Current System is studied using satellite data, in situ observations and model simulations. The data show that surface chlorophyll concentration is highest in austral summer and decreases during austral winter, in phase opposition with coastal upwelling intensity. A regional model coupling ocean dynamics and biogeochemical cycles is used to investigate the processes which control this apparently paradoxical seasonal cycle. Model results suggest that the seasonal variability of the mixed layer depth is the main controlling factor of the seasonality. In winter, the mixed layer deepening reduces the surface chlorophyll accumulation because of a dilution effect and light limitation. In summer, biomass concentrates near the surface in the shallow mixed layer and nitrate limitation occurs, resulting in a biomass decrease in the middle of summer. Intense blooms occur during the spring restratification period, when winter light limitation relaxes, and during the fall destratification period, when the surface layer is supplied with new nutrients. Model sensitivity experiments show that the seasonal variations in insolation and surface temperature have little impact on the surface chlorophyll variability.