Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Faunas from the upper silurian (upper ludlovian) in the ludlow-much wenlock district,England

Faunal lists for 17 sections in the Overton Formation are presented. Faunal diversity appears to increase towards the formations base while faunal dominance appears to increase towards its top.     

Brachiopods from China seas

A collection of brachiopods by the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica (Qingdao), contains eight species from seven genera. Six of the species have been recorded previously from China seas—Lingula adamsi, L. anatina, Discinisca stella, Pelagodiscus atlanticus, Campages mariae, Terebratalia coreanica. Two species (Terebratulina hataiana andFrenulina sanguinolenta) have been described from other parts of the Pacific area. The apparent absence of any endemic species is a noteworthy feature of Chinese in comparison with Japanese faunas.     

Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking

An assessment of six coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is undertaken in order to evaluate their ability in simulating winter atmospheric blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. The poor representation of atmospheric blocking in climate models is a long-standing problem (e.g. D’Andrea et?al. in Clim Dyn 4:385–407, 1998), and despite considerable effort in model development, there is only a moderate improvement in blocking simulation. A modified version of the Tibaldi and Molteni (in Tellus A 42:343–365, 1990) blocking index is applied to daily averaged 500?hPa geopotential fields, from the ERA-40 reanalysis and as simulated by the climate models, during the winter periods from 1957 to 1999. The two preferred regions of blocking development, in the Euro-Atlantic and North Pacific, are relatively well captured by most of the models. However, the prominent error in blocking simulations consists of an underestimation of the total frequency of blocking episodes over both regions. A more detailed analysis revealed that this error was due to an insufficient number of medium spells and long-lasting episodes, and a shift in blocking lifetime distributions towards shorter blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector. In the Pacific, results are more diverse; the models are equally likely to overestimate or underestimate the frequency at different spell lengths. Blocking spatial signatures are relatively well simulated in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while errors in the intensity and geographical location of the blocks emerge in the Pacific. The impact of models’ systematic errors on blocking simulation has also been analysed. The time-mean atmospheric circulation biases affect the frequency of blocking episodes, and the maximum event duration in the Euro-Atlantic region, while they sometimes cause geographical mislocations in the Pacific sector. The analysis of the systematic error in time-variability has revealed a negative relationship between the high-frequency variability of the transient eddies in the areas affected by blocking and blocking frequency. The blocking responses to errors in the low-frequency variability are different according to the region considered; the amplitude of the low-frequency variability is positively related to the blocking frequency and persistence in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while no such consistency is observed in the Pacific.     

Simulation of the full two rigid body problem using polyhedral mutual potential and potential derivatives approach

Herein we investigate the coupled orbital and rotational dynamics of two rigid bodies modelled as polyhedra, under the influence of their mutual gravitational potential. The bodies may possess any arbitrary shape and mass distribution. A method of calculating the mutual potential’s derivatives with respect to relative position and attitude is derived. Relative equations of motion for the two body system are presented and an implementation of the equations of motion with the potential gradients approach is described. Results obtained with this dynamic simulation software package are presented for multiple cases to validate the approach and illustrate its utility. This simulation capability is useful both for addressing questions in dynamical astronomy and for enabling spacecraft missions to binary asteroid systems.     

Similarity measures of conditional intensity functions to test separability in multidimensional point processes

Separability in the context of multidimensional point processes assumes a multiplicative form for the conditional intensity function. This hypothesis is especially convenient since each component of a separable process may be modeled and estimated individually, and this greatly facilitates model building, fitting, and assessment. This is also related to the problem of reduction in the number of dimensions. Following previous approximations to this problem, we focus on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. Our approach calculates thinning probabilities under the conditions of separability and nonseparability and compares them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on modeling the spatio-temporal first-order intensity of forest fires is also developed.     

Dunes on Titan observed by Cassini Radar

Thousands of longitudinal dunes have recently been discovered by the Titan Radar Mapper on the surface of Titan. These are found mainly within ±30° of the equator in optically-, near-infrared-, and radar-dark regions, indicating a strong proportion of organics, and cover well over 5% of Titan's surface. Their longitudinal duneform, interactions with topography, and correlation with other aeolian forms indicate a single, dominant wind direction aligned with the dune axis plus lesser, off-axis or seasonally alternating winds. Global compilations of dune orientations reveal the mean wind direction is dominantly eastwards, with regional and local variations where winds are diverted around topographically high features, such as mountain blocks or broad landforms. Global winds may carry sediments from high latitude regions to equatorial regions, where relatively drier conditions prevail, and the particles are reworked into dunes, perhaps on timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years. On Titan, adequate sediment supply, sufficient wind, and the absence of sediment carriage and trapping by fluids are the dominant factors in the presence of dunes.     

Heavy rare gases from Rabbit Lake (Canada) and the Oklo mine (Gabon): natural spontaneous chain reactions in old uranium deposits

Xenon isotopic studies confirm natural spontaneous chain reactions at the Oklo mine site (Republic of Gabon) with an integrated neutron flux of approximately 4 × 10²⁰n/cm² and a duration between 14,000 and 70,000 years. Similar studies for the Rabbit Lake deposit (Saskatchewan), a slightly younger site with some evidence of continued geologic activity, shows no evidence of self-supporting reactions.     

Stable isotope study of base metal deposits from the Eastern High Atlas,Morocco

Tertiary epigenetic lead ± zinc and copper mineralizations occur in the Mesozoic carbonate cover and stibnite, barite and copper mineralization in the Precambrian to Palaezoic basement in the Eastern High Atlas, Morocco. The carbon isotope data from host carbonates range from +3 to -1‰ PDB. The data are typical for marine carbon. There is no difference between surrounding dolomites and younger vein dolomites. The oxygen isotopic composition of the samples is enriched in ¹⁶O; the range is from -3 to -11‰ PDB with respect to that of carbonates in equilibrium with marine water. It is postulated that the isotopic composition was changed during dolomitization being caused by transition of connate formation waters diluted to some degree by meteoritic water. The bacteriogenically reduced sulphur from syngenetic sulphides and Mesozoic marine sulphate mobilized during Tertiary orogenesis are thought to be the source of H₂S and SO₄. Cambro-Ordovicien sulphate is also supposed to be the source of sulphur in the Jebel Zelmou barite deposit in the basement. Isotopic composition of lead from galenas in the Tertiary deposits from the Mesozoic cover are strikingly homogenous. Model ages vary between 230–180 Ma. It is suggested that important mobilization processes are responsible for Tertiary metallogeny in Morocco.