A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

Elimination of Carbamazepine,Diclofenac and Naproxen from Treated Wastewater by Nanofiltration

Most conventional wastewater treatment plants remove very small amounts of micropollutants, such as pharmaceuticals. Here, the ability of two different types of submerged nanofiltration flat sheet modules to remove pharmaceuticals from wastewater is analyzed. The two nanofiltration membranes were used at relatively low pressures of only 0.3 and 0.7 bar. At such low pressures, the membranes did not retain salts to a great extent. This is advantageous in wastewater treatment because no salt concentrate is produced. Carbamazepine was retained only slightly by the nanofiltration membranes, whereas approximately 60% of diclofenac and naproxen were retained by both membranes. This level of effectiveness might not be enough to justify the use of such a system as an additional treatment step in wastewater treatment plants.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

226Ra behavior in the Pee Dee River-Winyah Bay estuary

Concentrations of dissolved²²⁶Ra in Winyah Bay, South Carolina, and in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean are augmented by the desorption of radium from sediments in the low-salinity area of the estuary and diffusion from bottom sediments. Desorption of²²⁶Ra is reflected by lower concentrations in suspended sediments from higher-salinity regions of the estuary. Bottom sediments from the high-salinity region have lower²²⁶Ra/²³⁰Th activity ratios than those from the low-salinity end.The shape of the dissolved²²⁶Ra vs. salinity profile is influenced by the river discharge. During average-discharge conditions, desorption of²²⁶Ra from suspended and bottom sediments increases the dissolved²²⁶Ra concentrations by a factor of 3.5 as the water passes through Winyah Bay. High river discharge produces an initial increase of dissolved²²⁶Ra by a factor of 2 to 3 and apparently reflects only desorption from suspended sediments. By driving the salt wedge down the estuary and reducing the zone of contact of salt water with bottom sediments, the high-flow conditions sharply reduce the flux of²²⁶Ra from bottom sediments.     

Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

Southern margin of the Variscan belt: the north-western Gondwana mobile zone (eastern Morocco and Northern Algeria)

Stratigraphic and structural correlations between the Palaeozoic massifs of eastern Morocco and northern Algeria allow three tectonic domains to be distinguished: (1) The cratonic zone, i.e. the West African platform which remained outside the Variscan chain and its peripherical margin (Moroccan Anti-Atlas and Algerian Ougarta); (2) a WSW-ENE trending zone, over 1500 km from Marrakech to Kabylia and Calabria (in their assumed Palaeozoic location). — This zone was characterized during the Late Palaeozoic by a continuous instability indicated by the development of successive turbiditic basins and a major orogeny at the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary; and (3) central and western Morocco, which corresponds to the external zones of the European Hercynides.The Marrakech-Kabylia zone separates the Variscan domain from the stable and undeformed West African craton. During Early Palaeozoic times it began as an extensive or transtensive zone. It has been deformed by the Late Devonian orogeny and by Carboniferous and Permian reactivation. The zone represents the southern limit of the Hercynian chain and is distinguished by its transcurrent regime throughout the Late Palaeozoic. Correspondence to: A. Piqué     

A statistical analysis for pattern recognition of small cloud particles sampled with a PMS-2DC probe

Although small particles (size between 25 m and 200 m) are frequently observed within ice and water clouds, they are not generally used properly for the calculation of structural, optical and microphysical quantities. Actually neither the exact shape nor the phase (ice or water) of these particles is well denned since the existing pattern recognition algorithms are only efficient for larger particle sizes. The present study describes a statistical analysis concerning small hexagonal columns and spherical particles sampled with a PMS-2DC probe, and the corresponding images are classified according to the occurrence probability of various pixels arrangements. This approach was first applied to synthetic data generated with a numerical model, including the effects of diffraction at a short distance, and then validated against actual data sets obtained from in-cloud flights during the pre-ICE89 campaign. Our method allows us to differentiate small hexagonal columns from spherical particles, thus making possible the characterization of the three dimensional shape (and consequently evaluation of the volume) of the particles, and finally to compute e.g., the liquid or the ice water content.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of bimodal volcanism in the Sakoli Mobile Belt, Central Indian shield

The Sakoli Mobile Belt comprises bimodal volcanic rocks that include metabasalt, rhyolite, tuffs, and epiclastic rocks with metapelites, quartzite, arkose, conglomerate, and banded iron formation (BIF). Mafic volcanic rocks are tholeiitic to quartz‐tholeiitic with normative quartz and hypersthene. SiO₂ shows a large compositional gap between the basic and acidic volcanics, depicting their bimodal nature. Both the volcanics have distinct geochemical trends but display some similarity in terms of enriched light rare earth element–large ion lithophile element characteristics with positive anomalies for U, Pb, and Th and distinct negative anomalies for Nb, P, and Ti. These characteristics are typical of continental rift volcanism. Both the volcanic rocks show strong negative Sr and Eu anomalies indicating fractionation of plagioclases and K‐feldspars, respectively. The high Fe/Mg ratios for the basic rocks indicate their evolved nature. Whole rock Sm–Nd isochrons for the acidic volcanic rocks indicate an age of crystallization for these volcanic rocks at about 1675 ± 180 Ma (initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.51017 ± 0.00017, mean square weighted deviate [MSWD] = 1.6). The εNd_t (t = 2000 Ma) varies between ?0.19 and +2.22 for the basic volcanic rock and between ?2.85 and ?4.29 for the acidic volcanic rocks. Depleted mantle model ages vary from 2000 to 2275 Ma for the basic and from 2426 to 2777 Ma for the acidic volcanic rocks, respectively. These model ages indicate that protoliths for the acidic volcanic rocks probably had a much longer crustal residence time. Predominantly basaltic magma erupted during the deposition of the Dhabetekri Formation and part of it pooled at crustal or shallower subcrustal levels that probably triggered partial melting to generate the acidic magma. The influence of basic magma on the genesis of acidic magma is indicated by the higher Ni and Cr abundance at the observed silica levels of the acidic magma. A subsequent pulse of basic magma, which became crustally contaminated, erupted as minor component along with the dominantly acidic volcanics during the deposition of the Bhiwapur Formation.     

A search for posteclipse brightening of Io in 1973. I

Eight eclipse reappearances of the innermost Galilean satellite, Io, were observed during the fall of 1973. The measurements were made using photometers specially designed to cope with the problem of scattered light from Jupiter. Posteclipse brightening of Io was not detected and, if present, was less than our estimated detection threshold of about 0.02 mag.