SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

WR 7a: a V Sagittae or a qWR star?

The star WR 7a, also known as SPH 2, has a spectrum that resembles that of V Sagittae stars although no O  vi emission has been reported. The Temporal Variance Spectrum – TVS – analysis of our data shows weak but strongly variable emission of O  vi lines which is below the noise level in the intensity spectrum.
Contrary to what is seen in V Sagittae stars, optical photometric monitoring shows very little, if any, flickering. We found evidence of periodic variability. The most likely photometric period is   P _phot= 0.227(±14) d  , while radial velocities suggest a period of   P _spec= 0.204(±13) d  . One-day aliases of these periods can not be ruled out. We call attention to similarities with HD 45166 and DI Cru (= WR 46), where multiple periods are present. They may be associated to the binary motion or to non-radial oscillations.
In contrast to a previous conclusion by Pereira et al., we show that WR 7a contains hydrogen. The spectrum of the primary star seems to be detectable as the N  v 4604 Å  absorption line is visible. If so, it means that the wind is optically thin in the continuum and that it is likely to be a helium main sequence star.
Given the similarity to HD 45166, we suggests that WR 7a may be a qWR – quasi Wolf–Rayet – star. Its classification is WN4h/CE in the Smith, Shara & Moffat three-dimensional classification system.     

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.     

A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

2D/3D Dust Continuum Radiative Transfer Codes to Analyze and Predict VLTI Observations

Radiative Transfer (RT) codes with image capability are a fundamental tool for preparing interferometric observations and for interpreting visibility data. In view of the upcoming VLTI facilities, we present the first comparison of images/visibilities coming from two 3D codes that use completely different techniques to solve the problem of self-consistent continuum RT. In addition, we focus on the astrophysical case of a disk distorted by tidal interaction with by-passing stars or internal planets and investigate for which parameters the distortion can be best detected in the mid-infrared using the mid-infrared interferometric device MIDI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.