Uncertainties in field-line tracing in the magnetosphere. Part II: the complete internal geomagnetic field

The discussion in the preceding paper is restricted to the uncertainties in magnetic-field-iine tracing in the magnetosphere resulting from published standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients that define the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n⁰ ± g_n⁰). Numerical estimates of these uncertainties based on an analytic equation for axisymmetric field lines are in excellent agreement with independent computational estimates based on stepwise numerical integration along magnetic field lines. This comparison confirms the accuracy of the computer program used in the present paper to estimate the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing that arise from published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmonic coefficients, which define the complete (non-axisymmetric) internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n^m ± g_n^m and h_n^m ± h_n^m). An algorithm is formulated that greatly reduces the computing time required to estimate these uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing. The validity of this algorithm is checked numerically for both the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field in the general case (1 n 10) and the complete internal geomagnetic field in a restrictive case (0 m n, 1 n 3). On this basis it is assumed that the algorithm can be used with confidence in those cases for which the computing time would otherwise be prohibitively long. For the complete internal geomagnetic field, the maximum characteristic uncertainty in the geocentric distance of a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 2 R_E is typically 100 km. The corresponding characteristic uncertainty for a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 6 R_E is typically 500 km. Histograms and scatter plots showing the characteristic uncertainties associated with magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere are presented for a range of illustrative examples. Finally, estimates are given for the maximum uncertainties in the locations of the conjugate points of selected geophysical observatories. Numerical estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, including the associated uncertainties in thelocations of the conjugate points of geophysical observatories, should be regarded as first approximations in the sense that these estimates are only as accurate as the published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmomic coefficients. As in the preceding paper, howerver, all computational techniques developed in this paper can be used to derive more realistic estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, following further progress in the determination of more accurate standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients.Also Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

New paleomagnetic results from the Aegean extensional province

Various Oligocene formations from NE Greece (ignimbrites from the Medousa area, rhyolites from Zagradenia, granodiorites from Elatia) show discordant paleomagnetic signatures, in each case indicating small cw (clockwise) rotation and also inclination flattening. Marls from Pithion were partly remagnetized in a present-day field. Samples that contain ancient magnetization components also indicate small cw rotation and inclination flattening. However, the magnetization of andesites from Peplos reflects a considerably larger rotation, likely owing to local tectonics. In the context of previous work in the area, these results are used to propose a subdivision of NE Greece into four structural zones of distinctive rotational behaviour (from east to west): sites in zone 1, east of the Kavala-Xanthi-Komotini fault (KXK), show various cw and ccw (counterclockwise) rotation angles owing to complex kinematics resulting from the interaction of the KXK and the north-Anatolian fault zone. However, zone 2, between the KXK and the Strymon valley, is structurally homogeneous ( 10° cw rotation). The paleomagnetic signature of the Vertiskos massif (zone 3) implies a larger (> 30°) cw rotation, whereas sites in the Vardar basin (zone 4) contain a paleomagnetic signature similar to that of zone 2. This suggests a motion of the Vertiscos massif, a meta-ophiolitic nappe, relative to underlying strata. Indeed, zones 2 and 4 may be parts of the same structural unit which underlies this nappe.     

Internal migration patterns for U.S. foreign-born, 1985-1990

"Using 1990 census data, this paper calculates the flow [of the foreign-born population in the United States] between states and from abroad; also, a multinomial logistic regression model of destination choice is estimated for resettlers and for migrants from abroad. There are three major findings. Firstly, Florida and California are the largest recipients of foreign-born resettlers; New York is the biggest loser of secondary migrants. Secondly, the presence of large communities of Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida are very attractive to both resettlers and migrants from abroad. Thirdly, immigrants that are most in need of ethnic support networks (i.e. new arrivals or immigrants with low human capital resources) are most likely to choose one of the traditional immigration states as a destination."     

The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Summary Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and to possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective of when lagged correlations are commenced, correlations decrease rapidly through the boreal spring, indicating an inherent predictability limitation for large scale coupled oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Niño. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that the models are excellent facsimiles of the real system. They, too, encounter the predictability barrier and exhibit a substantial decrease in observation-prediction correlation across the boreal spring. Thus, a predictive system based solely on the interactive physics of the Pacific Basin appears limited to a maximum of less than one year and a minimum of only one or two months.Two hypotheses are made to explain the existence of the predictability barrier. First, it is argued that the tropical coupled system is at its frailest state during the boreal spring and that the signal-to-noise ratio is weakest. In such a system, maximum random error growth may occur as the atmosphere and the ocean become temporally detached and wander onto different climate trajectories. A series of 144 preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were conducted with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to test the hypothesis. Irrespective of when the experiments were commenced, error growth was maximized at the same time of the year. The second hypothesis suggests that the near-equatorial circulation is perturbed at the time of its weakest state by external influences such as the monsoon and that the climate wanderings are nudged deterministically. There is observational and theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis. Observations suggest that anomalous monsoons impart basin-wide coherent alterations of the wind stress field in the Pacific Ocean. Experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model show that the period of an ENSO event is altered substantially by an anomalous monsoon. Given that there appear to be precursors to anomalous monsoons, it is suggested that there may be ways to avoid the predictability barrier and thus extend prediction of the entire system.Finally, noting that the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they are combined to form a unified theory. As the asymmetric monsoonal and the symmetric near-equatorial heating are in approximate quadrature, it is argued that the monsoons influence the Walker circulation during the boreal spring. However, during the boreal fall and early winter the near-equatorial heating variability dominates the winter monsoon.With 18 Figures     

Biomass burning in the tropical savannas of Ivory Coast: An overview of the field experiment Fire of Savannas (FOS/DECAFE 91)

FOS/DECAFE 91 (Fire of Savannas/Dynamique et Chimie Atmosphérique en Forêt Equatoriale) was the first multidisciplinary experiment organized in Africa to determine gas and aerosol emissions by prescribed savanna fires. The humid savanna of Lamto in Ivory Coast was chosen for its ecological characteristics representative of savannas with a high biomass density (900 g m^–2 dry matter). Moreover the vegetation and the climate of Lamto have been studied for more than twenty years. The emission ratios (X/CO₂) of the carbon compounds (CO₂, CO, NMHC, CH₄, PAH, organic acids and aerosols), nitrogen compounds (NO_x, N₂O, NH₃ and soluble aerosols) and sulfur compounds (SO₂, COS and aerosols) were experimentally determined by ground and aircraft measurements. To perform this experiment, 4 small plots (100×100 m) and 2 large areas (10×10 km) were prepared and burnt in January 1991 during the period of maximum occurrence of fires in this type of savanna. The detailed ecological study shows that the carbon content of the vegetation is constant within 1% (42 g C for 100 g of vegetal dry matter), the nitrogen content (0.29 g N for 100 g of dry matter) may vary by 10% and the sulfur content (0.05 g S/100 d.m.) by 20%. These variations of the biomass chemical content do not constitute an important factor in the variation of the gas and particle emission levels. With the emission ratios characteristic of humid savanna and flaming conditions (CO/CO₂ of 6.1% at the ground and 8% for airborne measurements), we propose a set of new emission factors, taking into account the burning efficiency which is about 80%: 74.4% of the carbon content of the savanna biomass is released to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂, 4.6% as CO, 0.2% as CH₄, 0.5% as NMHC and 0.7% as aerosols. 17.2% of the nitrogen content of the biomass is released as NO_x, 3.5% as N₂O, 0.6% as NH₃ and 0.5% as soluble aerosols.     

On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles

Summary At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a bogussing scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.In this study, four commonly used bogus vortices are examined by comparing resultant forecast tracks in an environment at rest, and in a background flow that simulates a typical monsoon trough-subtropical ridge structure. There are three main findings, each of which has significance for operational tropical cyclone track prediction. First, great care is needed in the choice of the characteristics of the bogus vortex, such as the radius and magnitude of the maximum wind. Second, the tropical cyclone trajectories can be very sensitive to their initial position in the idealised environment. Third, the bogus vortex can substantially influence the environment, especially over longer time periods and for vortices of larger size.With 9 Figures     

Daily rainfall domains in Mallorca

Summary A Pearson Product Moment Correlation matrix for four years of daily rainfall from 96 sites on the island of Mallorca has been used to derive and map correlation fields and construct composite correlation fields for different parts of the island based on previously defined daily rainfall affinity areas. Significant variations in rainfall organisation over the island are revealed. These reflect the dominance of uplift and exposure by upland areas in the generation of rainfall, evidenced in strongly anisotropic correlation fields. Further anisotropy along lowland coasts normal to the relief trend indicate the role of local rainfall generation along sea-breeze fronts. Near isotropic fields for central island locations highlight the importance of local convection and local convergence between opposing sea breeze systems and inland convection. Linear correlation distance-decay trends are determined for the island and for the predetermined rainfall affinity areas, including estimates of distance-decay rates along field axes. A suite of exponential cone functions is derived to model the empirically observed fields, representing their typical bidimensional structure. Use of the fitted cones to model a typical rainfall day, where the rainfall distribution mimics quite closely the longer term average, yields quite good results and suggests that their use may be more appropriate than applying more conventional general interpolation techniques in the mapping of spatial rainfall distributions.With 14 Figures     

Textures exhibited by feldspars in the Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) of the bastard unit in the Upper Critical Zone,Western Bushveld Complex

Summary The Bastard Unit, overlying the Merensky Unit, is the uppermost and most complete of the cyclic units in the Upper Critical Zone and its upper contact is taken as the boundary between the Critical and Main Zones (as recommended by SACS, 1980). The Unit is different from underlying units for three reasons: it does not have a well-defined top contact (with an overlying unit); it is much thicker than the Merensky and Footwall Units; and it has an unusually thick sequence of mottled anorthosite at its top. This distinctive composite anorthositic sequence is termed the Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) which is predominantly made up of poikilitic anorthosite. The GMA can broadly be subdivided into three distinct parts; the Lower Giant Mottled Anorthosite (LGMA), Giant Mottled Middling (GMM) and the Upper Giant Mottled Anorthosite (UGMA).Petrographic examination of 82 samples taken in the GMA from 11 borehole profiles around the western limb of the Complex revealed that the LGMA and GMM are essentially adcumulates while the UGMA is orthocumulate in character. By its very nature the dominant phase throughout the GMA is cumulus plagioclase feldspar ( 85%) with the balance being made up of intercumulus orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene and minor biofite — all of which constitute the darker mottles. Intercumulus inverted pigeonite occurs in the upper part of the GMM, throughout the UGMA and for c. 30 m into the Main Zone. K-feldspar also joins the paragenesis within the UGMA and occurs both as intercumulus orthoclase and antiperthite. Cumulus plagioclase grains, showing varying degrees of complex oscillatory-zonal growth are common in the upper part of the GMA. These grains are interpreted as records of growth episodes during earlier influxes of magma which were responsible for the development of the underlying cyclic units, but escaped incorporation into the cumulate pile.

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Feldspat-Texturen im Giant Mottled Anorthosite der Bastard-Einheit in der oberen kritischen Zone des westlichen Bushveld-Komplexes

Zusammenfassung Die Bastard-Einheit, die die Merensky-Einheit überlagert, ist die oberste und am besten entwickelte der zyklischen Einheiten in der oberen kritischen Zone; ihr oberer Kontakt gilt als die Grenze zwischen der Kritischen und der Main-Zone (entsprechend den Empfehlungen von SACS, 1980). Die Einheit unterscheidet sich aus drei Gründen von den Einheiten im liegenden: sie hat keinen gut definierten oberen Kontakt (mit einer darüberliegenden Einheit), sie ist wesentlich mächtiger als die Merensky und die Footwall-Einheiten, und sie hat eine ungewöhnliche mächtige Abfolge von Mottled Anorthosite als obersten Teil der Abfolge. Diese wohldefinierte anorthositische Abfolge wird als Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) bezeichnet, und besteht hauptsächlich aus poikilitischem Anorthosit. Die GMA kann in 3 Teile, den unteren (LGMA), den mittleren (GMM) un den oberen (UGMA) unterteilt werden.Die petrographische Untersuchung von 82 Proben in der GMA aus 11 Bohrlöchern im Westteil des Bushveld-Komplexes zeigt, daß LGMA und GMM im wesentlichen Adkumulate sind, während die UGMA ein Orthokumulat darstellt. Die Hauptphase in der gesamten GMA ist Kumulus-Plagioklas ( 85 %); der Rest besteht aus Intercumulus-Orthopyroxen, Klinopyroxen, und geringen Mengen von Biotit. Diese sind die Komponenten der dunkleren mottles. Intercumulus invertierter Pigeonit kommt im oberen Teil der GMM, in der gesamten UGMA und in den unteren 30 Metern der Main-Zone vor. Innerhalb der UGMA tritt K-Feldspat hinzu, dieser kommt als Intercumulus Orthoklas und Antiperthit vor. Körner von Cumulusplagioklas mit verschiedenen Intensitäten komplexer Zonierung sind im oberen Teil der GMA verbreitet. Diese Körner werden als Hinweise auf Wachstumsepisoden während früherer Magmenzufuhr-Phasen interpretiert, die für die Entwicklung der zyklischen Einheiten im Liegenden verantwortlich waren, aber selbst nicht Teil der Cumulatabfolge wurden.

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With 5 Figures     

Textures in a poikilitic olivine gabbro cumulate: Evidence for supercooling

Summary Supercooling of repeated influxes of high-MgO ( 13.5 wt% MgO) tholeiitic magma emplaced along the floor of the Kap Edvard Holm magma chamber led to the formation of fine grained, intraplutonic quench zones that define the bases of 12 macrorhythmic units. The quench zones grade upwards into poikilitic cumulates containing olivine dendrites, suggesting supercooling by 40°C. Supercooling led to early, precumulus crystallization of metastable, non-equilibrium plagioclase, followed by co-precipitation of cumulus plagioclase and olivine. Later nucleation of clinopyroxene followed by rapid growth led to crystallization of zoned oikocrysts during the cumulus stage, followed by postcumulus overgrowth and crystallization of discrete intercumulus grains. At least four generations of plagioclase crystals appear to be preserved.

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Gefüge in einem poikilitischen Olivingabbro-Kumulat: Hinweis auf Unterkühlung

Zusammenfassung Unterkühlung von mehrmals nachströmendem MgO-reichen (ca. 13,5 Gew.% MgO), tholeiitischen Magma, das sich am Boden der Magmenkammer vom Kap Edvard Holm sammelte, führte zur Bildung von feinkbrnigen Zonen mit Abschreckungsgefüge, die jeweils die Basis von 12 makrorhythmischen Einheiten bilden. Diese Zonen gehen im Hangenden in poikilitische Kumulate über, die Olivin-Dendriten enthalten, was auf eine Unterkühlung um ca. 40°C hindeutet. Die Unterkühlung führte zu einer frühen präkumulativen Kristallisation von metastabilem, nicht im Gleichgewicht befindlichem Plagioklas, gefolgt von gleichzeitiger Präzipitation von Kumulus-Plagioklas und -Olivin. Eine spätere Keimbildung von Klinopyroxen, die von raschem Wachstum abgelöst wurde, führte während der Akkumulation zur Kristallisation von zonierten Oikokrysten. Danach folgte eine postkumulative Überwachsung und die Kristallisation von Einzelkörnern in den Zwischenräumen. Zumindest vier Generationen von Plagioklaskristallen scheinen erhalten zu sein.

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With 5 Figures     

Potential cauchy-poisson waves generated by submarine eruptions of kick 'em Jenny volcano

Kick 'em Jenny is the only known currently active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles. The volcano has erupted at least 10 times since first being discovered in 1939 and the summit has shoaled from a depth of 232 m in 1962 to its present-day depth of 150 m. Kick 'em Jenny is located in a province of explosive volcanism, has a known history of explosive eruptions and erupts magma of an explosive type. Future eruptions are likely to become increasingly more violent as the effect of the overlying water pressure becomes less. A preliminary study (Smith and Shepherd, 1993) suggests that Kick 'em Jenny is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the eastern Caribbean region.The classic approach to problems of water waves generated by sudden disturbances of the free surface makes use of the Cauchy-Poisson-Lamb theory. A large number of theoretical developments to this theory have been made for specific forms of surface disturbance. A development by Unoki and Nakano (1953a, b) considers both two- and three-dimensional Cauchy-Poisson waves generated by finite initial elevations and impulses applied to a free surface of infinitely deep water. Unoki and Nakano's results compared well to the wave systems recorded following submarine eruptions of the Myojinsho Reef volcano in 1952–53.Given the similarity of the two situations, Unoki and Nakano's theory is applied to Kick 'em Jenny to provide estimates of potential Cauchy-Poisson wave heights throughout the eastern Caribbean for a range of eruption magnitudes. The results show that, although the waves generated are unlikely to pose much of a threat to the eastern Caribbean as a whole, they should be considered a hazard to the islands immediately adjacent to the volcano including Grenada, the Grenadines, and St Vincent.