Models of the Southern Oscillation in the 300–100 mb layer and the basis of seasonal forecasting

Summary The geometry of the principal Upper High (near the Indian Occean) in the 300–100 mb layer appears to account for the Southern Oscillation (S.O.), and models of its behaviour are presented. Significant features of these models include the equatorial points of upper convergence (C) and divergence (D), a pressure discontinuity (CNDS) forming «arcs» and an «enclosure» around the high, and, lastly, encircling «crescents» both outside and inside the enclosure. The geography of the seasonal sucession can thus—in a qualitative manner—be interpreted in the light of known wind and contour patterns near the tropopause. With a few general principles, the established empirical rules of long-range forecasting then follow by deduction. The models and the terminology are useful likewise in the interpretation of solar-terrestrial relations and of climatic fluctuations.     

Sea-structure interaction for tripod-type steel gravity platform

The paper deals with a numerical integrated procedure to calculate the effects of the interaction between sea waves and a tripod-type steel gravity platform. The main aspects to be taken into account for a reliable wave loading analysis of such a new type of platform are emphasized. Among them, the field perturbation effect due to the large bodies presence is analysed. Finally, some principal results in terms of structure global loads obtained by the numerical integrated procedure are presented.     

On non-causal impulse response functions related to propagating water waves

Particular attention is drawn to the non-causality of two impulse response functions, one of which relates the excitation force on an immersed body to the incident wave elevation at the body's reference position, while the other relates the incident wave elevations at two different positions along the line of wave propagation. An explanation is proposed for the non-causality of the impulse response functions, in spite of the fact wave propagation is a causal process. An indication is given of how far ‘upstream’ the incident wave elevation should be measured in order to be able to know, with reasonable accuracy, the current heave excitation force on a floating truncated cylinder with vertical axis, given current and past wave-elevation measurements. This provides a method for wave prediction, which is required for optimum control of the oscillation of the immersed body.     

A residual analysis method for quantitative comparison of spatial data from the Iceland-Faeroes Front

A spatial statistical method has been developed from the well-known Kriging technique in geostatistics, as a way of providing quantitative comparison between a pair of spatial data sets, and a measure for such a comparison. This residual analysis method is applied to oceanographic data in order to compare Iceland-Faeroes Front (IFF) model predictions against appropriate field observations, with an aim to assess the IFF model performance and its prediction accuracy. The method is also used to evaluate the model-generated dynamical variability within the model predictions, as well as the natural variability within the frontal observations. From the results, it has been found that the IFF model is highly robust, and gives better predictions at depth 150–350 m than elsewhere. Within such a depth (i.e. 250–350 m), there is also evidence to suggest that the main frontal region is most active above the IF Ridge. The natural variability obtained from the observations appears to be comparable to the model-generated dynamical variability after 20 days of integration, indicating a certain degree of accuracy in the model predictions. The method reported in this paper could also be extended for further use in model data assimilation. Thus, the work not only demonstrates how spatial statistics can be applied to oceanographic data, but also opens up new statistical tools for data handling in ocean modelling.     

Harpacticoida taxocen diversity in the silty-sandy littoral zone of Kandalaksha Bay of the White Sea

The fauna composition, ecological groups, and life forms of Harpacticoids of soft littoral grounds from 15 sites off the Karelian coast in Kandalaksha Bay of the White Sea were studied. Six types of harpacticoid taxocens with different sets of dominating species are described. On silty sands with clear signs of desalination, the Stenchelia palustris taxocen is common; medium-grained sands are characterized by the Heterolaophonte minuta, Paraleptastacus kliei — Huntemannia jadensis, and Amphiascoides nanus — Scottopsyllus minor taxocens; while on coarse sands, the Ameira parvula and Ameira scotti — Mesochra lilljeborgi taxocens have developed. The diversity of the taxocens is partly explained by the differences in the grain-size composition and salinity at different sites. In addition, groups of various taxocens dwelling on the same type of the sediments were found in different minor bights of the coastline.