Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal

Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.     

Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

Long-term bed load transport rate based on aerial-photo and ground penetrating radar surveys of fan-delta growth, Coast Mountains, British Columbia

Sequential aerial photography, sonar bathymetry, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and sediment sampling and analysis provide the basis for calculating the volumetric and mass rate of progradation of the delta of Fitzsimmons Creek, a steep, high-energy, debris-flow-dominated channel draining about 100 km² of the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Fitzsimmons Creek is typical of small mountain rivers in the region. GPR imaging is used to define the pre-depositional morphology of the receiving basin, a technique that improves the accuracy of the volumetric survey. The 52-year record (1947–1999) of progradation yielded an average annual volumetric transport rate of 1.00±0.16×10⁴ m³ year⁻¹ for bed load, corresponding to a mass transport rate of 1.60±0.28×10⁴ Mg year⁻¹. Bed load yields are consistent with those obtained in hydrogeomorphically similar basins in the region and elsewhere. Decade-based annual rates, which vary from 0.64±0.11×10⁴ to 2.85±0.38×10⁴ Mg year⁻¹, provide poor estimates of the 52-year average. Indeed, the 52-year record may also not be long enough to fully integrate the significant fluctuations in the sediment efflux from Fitzsimmons Creek. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other comparable mountain environments worldwide.     

A constrained 2D gravity model of the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin, Baja California Sur, Mexico

The subsurface geometry of the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin is obtained from the 2D inversion of gravity data, constrained by a density-versus-depth relationship derived from an oil exploration deep hole. The basin accumulated a thick pile of marine sediments that evolved in the fore-arc region of the compressive margin prevalent along western North America during Mesozoic and Tertiary times. Our interpretation indicates that the sedimentary infill in the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin reaches a maximum thickness of about 4 km at the centre of a relatively symmetric basin. At the location of the Suaro-1 hole, the depth to the basement derived from this work agrees with the drilled interface between calcareous and volcaniclastic members of the Alisitos Formation. A sensitivity analysis strongly suggests that the assumed density function leads to a nearly unique solution of the inverse problem.