Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

Church-based social capital, networks and geographical scale: Katrina evacuation, relocation, and recovery in a New Orleans Vietnamese American community

This research examines the role of social capital and networks to explain the evacuation, relocation, and recovery experiences of a Vietnamese American community in New Orleans, Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. As the single largest community institution, the parish church’s complex bonding and bridging social capital and networks proved particularly critical in part because of its historically based ontological security. The process of evacuation, but especially relocation and recovery, was dependent on deploying co-ethnic social capital and networks at a variety of geographical scales. Beyond the local or community scale, extra-local, regional, and national scales of social capital and networks reproduced a spatially redefined Vietnamese American community. Part of the recovery process included constructing discursive place-based collective-action frames to successfully contest a nearby landfill that in turn engendered social capital and networks crossing ethnic boundaries to include the extra-local African American community. Engaging social capital and networks beyond the local geographical scale cultivated a Vietnamese American community with an emergent post-Katrina cultural and political identity.     

Magma Ascent and Crustal Accretion at Ultraslow-Spreading Ridges: Constraints from Plagioclase Ultraphyric Basalts from the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge

Plagioclase ultraphyric basalts (PUBs) with up to 54% plagioclasephenocrysts were dredged in the rift valley and adjacent flanksof the ultraslow-spreading Mohns and Knipovich ridges. The PUBsshow large variations in crystal morphologies and zoning. Thelarge variations suggest that single basalt samples containa mixture of plagioclase crystals that aggregated at differentlevels in the magma conduits. Resorbed crystals and repeatedreverse zones suggest that the magma reservoirs were replenishedand heated several times. Thin concentric zones with melt inclusions,and sharp reductions in the anorthite content of 3–7%,are common between the reverse zones. These zones, and skeletalcrystals with distinctly lower anorthite contents than massivecrystals, are interpreted to be the result of rapid crystalliztionduring strong undercooling. The changes between short periodsof cooling and longer periods with reheating are explained bymultiple advances of crystal-rich magma into cool regions followedby longer periods of gradual magma inflow and temperature increase.The porphyritic basalts are characterizd by more depleted andmore fractionated compositions than the aphyric basalts, withlower (La/Sm)_N, K₂O and Mg-numbers. This relationship, and theobservation that PUBs are sampled only close to segment centresalong these ridges, suggests that the PUBs formed by higherdegrees of melting and evolved in more long-lived magma reservoirs.We propose that the zoning patterns of plagioclase crystalsand crystal morphologies of these PUBs reflect the developmentand flow of magma through a stacked sill complex-like conduitsystem, whereas the aphyric equivalents represent later flowof magma through the conduit. The formation of voluminous higher-degreemelts may trigger the development of the magma conduits andexplain the generally depleted compositions of PUB magmas. KEY WORDS: basalt; mineral chemistry; MORB; magma mixing; magma chamber; major element     

Lateral structural variability in zone of eocene island-arc-continent collision,Kamchatka

The lateral variability of structural elements in the collision zone of the Cretaceous-Paleocene Achaivayam-Valagin island arc with the northeastern Asian margin is considered. The similarity and difference of Eocene collision structural elements in the north and the south of Kamchatka are shown. In northern Kamchatka, the continent-arc boundary is traced along the Lesnaya-Vatyn Thrust Fault, which completed its evolution about 45 Ma ago. The thin, near-horizontal allochthon of this thrust, composed of island-arc rocks, overlies the deformed but unmetamorphosed terrigeneous sequences of the Asian margin. The general structure of this suture in the Kamchatka Isthmus and southern Koryakia is comparable with the uppermost subduction zone, where a thin lithospheric wedge overlaps intensely deformed sediments detached from the plunging plate. In southern Kamchatka (Malka Uplift of the Sredinny Range), the arc-continent collision started 55–53 Ma ago with thrusting of island-arc complexes over terrigenous rocks of continental margin. However, the thickness of the allochthon was much greater than in the north. Immediately after this event, both the autochthon and lower part of allochthon were deformed and subsided to a significant depth. This subsidence gave rise to metamorphism of both the autochthon (Kolpakov and Kamchatka groups, Kheivan Formation) and lower allochthon (Andrianovka and Khimka formations). The anomalously fast heating of the crust was most likely related to the ascent of asthenospheric masses due to slab breakoff, when the Eurasian Plate was plunging beneath the Achaivayam-Valagin arc.     

Comparison of arsenic concentrations in simultaneously-collected groundwater and aquifer particles from Bangladesh,India, Vietnam,and Nepal

One of the reasons the processes resulting in As release to groundwater in southern Asia remain poorly understood is the high degree of spatial variability of physical and chemical properties in shallow aquifers. In an attempt to overcome this difficulty, a simple device that collects groundwater and sediment as a slurry from precisely the same interval was developed in Bangladesh. Recently published results from Bangladesh and India relying on the needle-sampler are augmented here with new data from 37 intervals of grey aquifer material of likely Holocene age in Vietnam and Nepal. A total of 145 samples of filtered groundwater ranging in depth from 3 to 36 m that were analyzed for As (1–1000 μg/L), Fe (0.01–40 mg/L), Mn (0.2–4 mg/L) and S (0.04–14 mg/L) are compared. The P-extractable (0.01–36 mg/kg) and HCl-extractable As (0.04–36 mg/kg) content of the particulate phase was determined in the same suite of samples, in addition to Fe(II)/Fe ratios (0.2–1.0) in the acid-leachable fraction of the particulate phase. Needle-sampler data from Bangladesh indicated a relationship between dissolved As in groundwater and P-extractable As in the particulate phase that was interpreted as an indication of adsorptive equilibrium, under sufficiently reducing conditions, across 3 orders of magnitude in concentrations according to a distribution coefficient of 4 mL/g. The more recent observations from India, Vietnam and Nepal show groundwater As concentrations that are often an order of magnitude lower at a given level of P-extractable As compared to Bangladesh, even if only the subset of particularly reducing intervals characterized by leachable Fe(II)/Fe >0.5 and dissolved Fe >0.2 mg/L are considered. Without attempting to explain why As appears to be particularly mobile in reducing aquifers of Bangladesh compared to the other regions, the consequences of increasing the distribution coefficient for As between the particulate and dissolved phase to 40 mL/g for the flushing of shallow aquifers of their initial As content are explored.     

Atmospheric mercury near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in southern Idaho

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured over 2-week seasonal field campaigns near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in south-central Idaho from the summer of 2005 through the fall of 2006 and over the entire summer of 2006 using automated Tekran Hg analyzers. GEM, RGM, and particulate Hg (HgP) were also measured at a secondary site 90 km to the west in southwestern Idaho during the summer of 2006. The study was performed to characterize Hg air concentrations in the southern Idaho area for the first time, estimate Hg dry deposition rates, and investigate the source of observed elevated concentrations. High seasonal variability was observed with the highest GEM (1.91 ± 0.9 ng m⁻³) and RGM (8.1 ± 5.6 pg m⁻³) concentrations occurring in the summer and lower values in the winter (1.32 ± 0.3 ng m⁻³, 3.2 ± 2.9 pg m⁻³ for GEM, RGM, respectively). The summer-average HgP concentrations were generally below detection limit (0.6 ± 1 pg m⁻³). Seasonally averaged deposition velocities calculated using a resistance model were 0.034 ± 0.032, 0.043 ± 0.040, 0.00084 ± 0.0017 and 0.00036 ± 0.0011 cm s⁻¹ for GEM (spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively) and 0.50 ± 0.39, 0.40 ± 0.31, 0.51 ± 0.43 and 0.76 ± 0.57 cm s⁻¹ for RGM. The total annual RGM + GEM dry deposition estimate was calculated to be 11.9 ± 3.3 μg m⁻², or about 2/3 of the total (wet + dry) deposition estimate for the area. Periodic elevated short-term GEM (2.2–12 ng m⁻³) and RGM (50–150 pg m⁻³) events were observed primarily during the warm seasons. Back-trajectory modeling and PSCF analysis indicate predominant source directions to the SE (western Utah, northeastern Nevada) and SW (north-central Nevada) with fewer inputs from the NW (southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho).     

Sedimentation settings of the Vendian Vanavara formation,the Siberian platform

A model of sedimentation settings is elaborated for siliciclastic deposits of the Vendian Vanavara Formation, the Katanga saddle, inner areas of the Siberian platform. Four lithologic complexes are distinguished in the formation. The lower complex is composed of proluvial continental deposits exemplifying a dejection cone of ephemeral streams. Its eroded surface is overlain by second complex largely represented by sandstones of coastal zone, which grade upward into siltstones and shales of deeper sedimentation settings (third complex). Sea transgression advanced in northeastern direction. The fourth complex resting with scouring on the third one was deposited in settings of a spacious shallow-water sea zone: in a tidal flat, sand shoals and islands. Sedimentological data are used to correlate more precisely the Vendian siliciclastic deposits of the Katanga saddle and northeastern Nepa-Botuoba anteclise, and to verify subdivision of the Vanavara Formation into subformations and character of its boundary with the overlying Oskoba Formation.     

Weibull statistical analysis of granite bending strength

Summary  This paper describes and discusses the adequacy of Weibull statistical analysis to analyse the bending strength of granite. The experimental results show that strength variability is related with a specific origin of failure. This conclusion is based on analysing the influence of the surface condition (extrinsic defects) on the bending strength results treated by the Weibull statistics. The conclusions drawn from this study have been validated by analysing the results of the critical flaw dimension estimated by applying the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) formulae. Results obtained from fractographic examination also have been used to describe the location of the origin of the fracture and understand the distribution of defects; i.e., there is a unimodal distribution of defects (intrinsic defects), despite the fact that some outlier values are normally observed in the fractured surfaces. Correspndence: P. M. Amaral, Department of Materials Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal     

Chemical composition,volatile components,and trace elements in melts of the Karymskii volcanic center,Kamchatka, and Golovnina volcano,Kunashir Island: Evidence from inclusions in minerals

Melt inclusions were examined in phenocrysts in basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyodacite from the Karymskii volcanic center in Kamchatka and dacite form Golovnina volcano in Kunashir Island, Kuriles. The inclusions were examined by homogenization and by analyzing glasses in more than 80 inclusions on an electron microscope and ion microprobe. The SiO₂ concentrations in the melt inclusions in plagioclase phenocrysts from basalts from the Karymskii volcanic center vary from 47.4 to 57.1 wt %, these values for inclusions in plagioclase phenocrysts from andesites are 55.7–67.1 wt %, in plagioclase phenocrysts from the dacites and rhyodacites are 65.9–73.1 wt %, and those in quartz in the rhyodacites are 72.2–75.7 wt %. The SiO₂ concentrations in melt inclusions in quartz from dacites from Golovnina volcano range from 70.2 to 77.0 wt %. The basaltic melts are characterized by usual concentrations of major components (wt %): TiO₂ = 0.7–1.3, FeO = 6.8–11.4, MgO = 2.3–6.1, CaO = 6.7–10.8, and K₂O = 0.4–1.7; but these rocks are notably enriched in Na₂O (2.9–7.4 wt % at an average of 5.1 wt %, with the highest Na₂O concentration detected in the most basic melts: SiO₂ = 47.4–52.0 wt %. The concentrations of volatiles in the basic melts are 1.6 wt % for H₂O, 0.14 wt % for S, 0.09 wt % for Cl, and 50 ppm for F. The andesite melts are characterized by high concentrations (wt %) of FeO (6.5 on average), CaO (5.2), and Cl (0.26) at usual concentrations of Na₂O (4.5), K₂O (2.1), and S (0.07). High water concentrations were determined in the dacite and rhyodacite melts: from 0.9 to 7.3 wt % (average of 15 analyses equals 4.5 wt %). The Cl concentration in these melts is 0.15 wt %, and those of F and S are 0.06 and 0.01 wt %, respectively. Melt inclusions in quartz from the dacites of Golovnina volcano are also rich in water: they contain from 5.0 to 6.7 wt % (average 5.6 wt %). The comparison of melt compositions from the Karymskii volcanic center and previously studied melts from Bezymyannyi and Shiveluch volcanoes revealed their significant differences. The former are more basic, are enriched in Ti, Fe, Mg, Ca, Na, and P but significantly depleted in K. The melts of the Karymskii volcanic center are most probably less differentiated than the melts of Bezymyannyi and Shiveluch volcanoes. The concentrations of water and 20 trace elements were measured in the glasses of 22 melt inclusions in plagioclase and quartz from our samples. Unusually high values were obtained for Li concentrations (along with high Na concentrations) in the basaltic melts from the Karymskii volcanic center: from 118 to 1750 ppm, whereas the dacite and rhyolite melts contain 25 ppm Li on average. The rhyolite melts of Golovnina volcano are much poorer in Li: 1.4 ppm on average. The melts of the Karymskii volcanic center are characterized by relative minima at Nb and Ti and maxima at B and K, as is typical of arc magmas.