A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

全新世早期以色列北部海岸沉积物扩散:地质与考古证据

最近在地中海东南面，以色列北部的阿特利特（Atlit）半岛外海约300m的内陆架水深8－12m处发现了较大的前史村落——阿特利特·亚姆（Atlit·Yam）。这个由面积超过60000m‘各种保存较好建筑物和寓所残痕组成的村落，依据丰富的各种各样的制造物，被认为建于前PotteryNeolithic晚期．考古勘测表明，村落经济较为复杂，包括通过农业、畜牧、打猎和捕鱼等获得各种食物来源．在阿特利特·亚姆，最惊人的发现是一口水井，水井顶部目前淹没在水深10m处。Galili和Nir（1993曾详细描述过这口水井，其直径为15m，深度为52m，其中大约3．8m为更新…     

Microsomal estrogen metabolism in channel catfish

Our goal was to study the involvement of cytochrome P450 genes in estrogen metabolism and the extent to which the potentially carcinogenic 4-hydroxyestradiol metabolite is formed by channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus; CC). Estradiol metabolism and ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity were assessed in several tissues from fish collected from three variably contaminated sites in the Mississippi River Delta, from laboratory control fish, and from fish exposed to 20 mg/kg benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) i.p. for 4 days. Liver EROD activity was induced by BaP, but Delta fish EROD activities were not statistically higher than activities in control fish. Gill microsomal EROD activity was also induced by BaP, but activities were 8- to 77-fold lower than those from liver. The predominant estrogen metabolites formed by CC liver, gill and gonad microsomes were 2-hydroxyestradiol and estrone as detected by GC/MS. Liver and gill 2-hydroxyestradiol formation was induced in BaP-dosed fish. The trends in hydroxyestradiol formation in field collected fish were more variable. In all fish liver microsomes there was more 2- compared to 4-hydroxyestradiol formed. However, BaP-treatment increased the 4:2 hydroxyestradiol ratio from 0.04 in control fish to 0.2 in BaP-exposed fish, suggesting that BaP induces the formation of the potentially genotoxic estrogen metabolite. No detectable 4-hydroxyestradiol was produced by gill and gonad microsomes. These results will ultimately help in determining which fish P450 genes are susceptible to environmental contamination and may be involved in estrogen genotoxicity.     

重量稀释的和浓缩的标准海水的电导率同盐度和温度的函数关系

在-2℃至35℃的整个海洋温度范围和0至42‰S盐度范围内测量准确已知盐度的海水样品电导率和同温度下标准海水电导率的比值R_(s.t.o)。盐度S<35‰的海水样品是由蒸馏水准确重量稀释标准海水制备的,快速蒸发标准海水制备高盐度海水样品继而重量稀释到已经确定的<35‰S范围。推导出了非常准确地表示1～42‰S和全部温度范围内的S与R_(s.t.o)关系式,即 S=f_1(R_(s.t.o)) f_2(R_(s.o,t.)t)=sum from n=0 to 5 a_1R~(a/2) △t/(1 k△t)sum from n=0 to 5 b_nR~(n/2)式中△t=t-15℃,R=R_(s.t.o),只有第一项f_1要求15℃。也确定了温度对标准海水电导率的影响,用t的四次方程非常准确地表示温度t时的电导率的比值的r_(tt)(C_(35.t.o)/C_(35.15.o)),即:(?)_t=sum from n=0 to 4 C_nt~n 这两个方程足以满足常压下所有盐度测量。     

Minor constituents in the Martian atmosphere from the ISM/Phobos experiment

Global Martian atmospheric results derived from the infrared imaging spectrometer ISM flown aboard the Phobos 2 Soviet spacecraft are presented. Over low altitude regions the expected CO mixing ratio of (8 +/- 3) x 10(-4) is measured. Variations of the 2.35-micrometers feature are inconsistent with this value over the Great Martian Volcanoes. If the 2.35-micrometers band is entirely attributable to carbon monoxide, the CO mixing ratio is typically depleted by a factor of 3 over these high altitude areas. Orography should play a major role in the existence of this CO "hole." If, however, these spectral variations at 2.35 micrometers are due to the surface composition, the fraction of the surface covered by the responsible mineral must smoothly decrease as the surface elevation decreases. This phenomenon implies a strong interaction between the surface and the atmosphere for the Great Martian Volcanoes. Diurnal behavior and latitudinal variations of water vapor are globally consistent with Viking measurements. During the Phobos observations, the water vapor amounts over the bright equatorial regions range around 11 pr-micrometers during the day. These amounts are slightly larger than those inferred from 1976 to 1979. The lack of global dust storms during 1988-1989 could explain the enhancement of H2O in the atmosphere.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

Simultaneous multifrequency observations of Markarian 421

The highly variable BL Lacertae object Mrk 421 has been observed simultaneously in the radio, optical ultraviolet, and X-ray bands over a period of 4 days in early 1984 December and once again in early 1985 January. Using the EXOSAT observatory, we found that dramatic changes occurred in the X-ray flux on a time scale of less than a mouth. During this time the 2-10 keV flux dropped by a factor of 8, whereas the 0.1-1 keV flux decreased by a factor of only 2. These changes were not reproduced at longer wavelengths during the period of simultaneous observations. However, a drop in the ultraviolet flux occurred some months later, which is consistent with the longer characteristic loss times for the lower energy electrons. Since the ultraviolet through radio flux is stable when the X-ray flux is changing, it is extremely unlikely that a simple synchrotron model can account for the full spectrum; in this model the whole spectrum is expected to rise uniformly and in phase as a result of the injection of energetic particles. A simple synchroton self-Compton model that is self-absorbed in the radio also requires an X-ray flux which is many orders of magnitude greater than is observed. However, this discrepancy may be explained by relativistic beaming of electrons with delta > approximately 40 or by a model in which the self-absorption turnover occurs in the optical, and the synchrotron break occurs in the X-rays. Shorter time scale (approximately 10,000 s) variability was also apparent in the 2-10 keV X-ray light curves, and we suggest that it may be a direct measure of the injection time scale. Although reasonable fits resulted when the X-ray data were compared with a simple power-law model with some absorption, a substantial improvement in chi 2 was obtained by adding a high-energy exponential cutoff. Use of this model produced a spectral index close to that typically found in the optical for BL Lacertae objects, in contrast to the high values usually inferred from X-ray spectra.     

Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps

Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.     

The space-time and systematic concepts in regional planning: the population aspect

"The paper contends that it is possible to synthesise the various studies unilineally relating population processes to regional development into a comprehensive overview within which the process of differential regional development and planning and that of differential population levels can be universally assessed in a system framework. The paper presents a simple planning control system model of regional development based on its process and structure in space and the dynamics of population reactions over time."