Confirmation of radio absorption by the intergalactic medium

The conventional interpretation of the cosmic background radiation (CBR) as a relic of the Big Bang assumes that the intergalactic medium is highly transparent to radio frequency radiation. Previous work (Lerner, 1990) used the well-known correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral galaxies to test this assumption. That analysis, using 237 Shapley-Ames galaxies showed that radio luminosity (L _R ) for a given IR-luminosity, declines with distance, implying that the IGM strongly absorbs radio frequency radiation. That absorption has now been confirmed using a sample of 301 IR-bright galaxies. Using two independent methods of determining the correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral and interacting galaxies, the sample shows that for a givenL _IR ,L _R D ^{–0.32±0.04} over a range of distances from 0.7-300 Mpc. (H ₀ = 75 km s^–1 Mpc^–1). The correlation is significant at the 8 or 10^–14 level. Absorption by the IGM is the only reasonable explanation for this correlation. The existence of such absorption implies that neither the isotropy nor the spectrum of the CBR are primordial and that neither is evidence for a Big Bang.     

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.     

Geography in a restructuring world?

In those parts of their discipline which can be categorised as spatial analysis, geographers have focused attention on distance as a key variable, and have paid little attention to bounded spaces and territoriality strategies. In a rapidly restructuring world, in which distance is becoming increasingly irrelevant as an influence on many forms of behaviour, territoriality remains an important aspect of the manipulation of space for economic, social, political and cultural purposes: in the terminology of Hagerstrands classic model, while the coupling and capability constraints on interaction are weakening, the authority constraint remains strong.     

Uncertainties in field-line tracing in the magnetosphere. Part II: the complete internal geomagnetic field

The discussion in the preceding paper is restricted to the uncertainties in magnetic-field-iine tracing in the magnetosphere resulting from published standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients that define the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n⁰ ± g_n⁰). Numerical estimates of these uncertainties based on an analytic equation for axisymmetric field lines are in excellent agreement with independent computational estimates based on stepwise numerical integration along magnetic field lines. This comparison confirms the accuracy of the computer program used in the present paper to estimate the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing that arise from published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmonic coefficients, which define the complete (non-axisymmetric) internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n^m ± g_n^m and h_n^m ± h_n^m). An algorithm is formulated that greatly reduces the computing time required to estimate these uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing. The validity of this algorithm is checked numerically for both the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field in the general case (1 n 10) and the complete internal geomagnetic field in a restrictive case (0 m n, 1 n 3). On this basis it is assumed that the algorithm can be used with confidence in those cases for which the computing time would otherwise be prohibitively long. For the complete internal geomagnetic field, the maximum characteristic uncertainty in the geocentric distance of a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 2 R_E is typically 100 km. The corresponding characteristic uncertainty for a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 6 R_E is typically 500 km. Histograms and scatter plots showing the characteristic uncertainties associated with magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere are presented for a range of illustrative examples. Finally, estimates are given for the maximum uncertainties in the locations of the conjugate points of selected geophysical observatories. Numerical estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, including the associated uncertainties in thelocations of the conjugate points of geophysical observatories, should be regarded as first approximations in the sense that these estimates are only as accurate as the published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmomic coefficients. As in the preceding paper, howerver, all computational techniques developed in this paper can be used to derive more realistic estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, following further progress in the determination of more accurate standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients.Also Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

New paleomagnetic results from the Aegean extensional province

Various Oligocene formations from NE Greece (ignimbrites from the Medousa area, rhyolites from Zagradenia, granodiorites from Elatia) show discordant paleomagnetic signatures, in each case indicating small cw (clockwise) rotation and also inclination flattening. Marls from Pithion were partly remagnetized in a present-day field. Samples that contain ancient magnetization components also indicate small cw rotation and inclination flattening. However, the magnetization of andesites from Peplos reflects a considerably larger rotation, likely owing to local tectonics. In the context of previous work in the area, these results are used to propose a subdivision of NE Greece into four structural zones of distinctive rotational behaviour (from east to west): sites in zone 1, east of the Kavala-Xanthi-Komotini fault (KXK), show various cw and ccw (counterclockwise) rotation angles owing to complex kinematics resulting from the interaction of the KXK and the north-Anatolian fault zone. However, zone 2, between the KXK and the Strymon valley, is structurally homogeneous ( 10° cw rotation). The paleomagnetic signature of the Vertiskos massif (zone 3) implies a larger (> 30°) cw rotation, whereas sites in the Vardar basin (zone 4) contain a paleomagnetic signature similar to that of zone 2. This suggests a motion of the Vertiscos massif, a meta-ophiolitic nappe, relative to underlying strata. Indeed, zones 2 and 4 may be parts of the same structural unit which underlies this nappe.     

Internal migration patterns for U.S. foreign-born, 1985-1990

"Using 1990 census data, this paper calculates the flow [of the foreign-born population in the United States] between states and from abroad; also, a multinomial logistic regression model of destination choice is estimated for resettlers and for migrants from abroad. There are three major findings. Firstly, Florida and California are the largest recipients of foreign-born resettlers; New York is the biggest loser of secondary migrants. Secondly, the presence of large communities of Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida are very attractive to both resettlers and migrants from abroad. Thirdly, immigrants that are most in need of ethnic support networks (i.e. new arrivals or immigrants with low human capital resources) are most likely to choose one of the traditional immigration states as a destination."     

The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Summary Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and to possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective of when lagged correlations are commenced, correlations decrease rapidly through the boreal spring, indicating an inherent predictability limitation for large scale coupled oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Niño. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that the models are excellent facsimiles of the real system. They, too, encounter the predictability barrier and exhibit a substantial decrease in observation-prediction correlation across the boreal spring. Thus, a predictive system based solely on the interactive physics of the Pacific Basin appears limited to a maximum of less than one year and a minimum of only one or two months.Two hypotheses are made to explain the existence of the predictability barrier. First, it is argued that the tropical coupled system is at its frailest state during the boreal spring and that the signal-to-noise ratio is weakest. In such a system, maximum random error growth may occur as the atmosphere and the ocean become temporally detached and wander onto different climate trajectories. A series of 144 preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were conducted with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to test the hypothesis. Irrespective of when the experiments were commenced, error growth was maximized at the same time of the year. The second hypothesis suggests that the near-equatorial circulation is perturbed at the time of its weakest state by external influences such as the monsoon and that the climate wanderings are nudged deterministically. There is observational and theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis. Observations suggest that anomalous monsoons impart basin-wide coherent alterations of the wind stress field in the Pacific Ocean. Experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model show that the period of an ENSO event is altered substantially by an anomalous monsoon. Given that there appear to be precursors to anomalous monsoons, it is suggested that there may be ways to avoid the predictability barrier and thus extend prediction of the entire system.Finally, noting that the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they are combined to form a unified theory. As the asymmetric monsoonal and the symmetric near-equatorial heating are in approximate quadrature, it is argued that the monsoons influence the Walker circulation during the boreal spring. However, during the boreal fall and early winter the near-equatorial heating variability dominates the winter monsoon.With 18 Figures     

Biomass burning in the tropical savannas of Ivory Coast: An overview of the field experiment Fire of Savannas (FOS/DECAFE 91)

FOS/DECAFE 91 (Fire of Savannas/Dynamique et Chimie Atmosphérique en Forêt Equatoriale) was the first multidisciplinary experiment organized in Africa to determine gas and aerosol emissions by prescribed savanna fires. The humid savanna of Lamto in Ivory Coast was chosen for its ecological characteristics representative of savannas with a high biomass density (900 g m^–2 dry matter). Moreover the vegetation and the climate of Lamto have been studied for more than twenty years. The emission ratios (X/CO₂) of the carbon compounds (CO₂, CO, NMHC, CH₄, PAH, organic acids and aerosols), nitrogen compounds (NO_x, N₂O, NH₃ and soluble aerosols) and sulfur compounds (SO₂, COS and aerosols) were experimentally determined by ground and aircraft measurements. To perform this experiment, 4 small plots (100×100 m) and 2 large areas (10×10 km) were prepared and burnt in January 1991 during the period of maximum occurrence of fires in this type of savanna. The detailed ecological study shows that the carbon content of the vegetation is constant within 1% (42 g C for 100 g of vegetal dry matter), the nitrogen content (0.29 g N for 100 g of dry matter) may vary by 10% and the sulfur content (0.05 g S/100 d.m.) by 20%. These variations of the biomass chemical content do not constitute an important factor in the variation of the gas and particle emission levels. With the emission ratios characteristic of humid savanna and flaming conditions (CO/CO₂ of 6.1% at the ground and 8% for airborne measurements), we propose a set of new emission factors, taking into account the burning efficiency which is about 80%: 74.4% of the carbon content of the savanna biomass is released to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂, 4.6% as CO, 0.2% as CH₄, 0.5% as NMHC and 0.7% as aerosols. 17.2% of the nitrogen content of the biomass is released as NO_x, 3.5% as N₂O, 0.6% as NH₃ and 0.5% as soluble aerosols.     

On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles

Summary At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a bogussing scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.In this study, four commonly used bogus vortices are examined by comparing resultant forecast tracks in an environment at rest, and in a background flow that simulates a typical monsoon trough-subtropical ridge structure. There are three main findings, each of which has significance for operational tropical cyclone track prediction. First, great care is needed in the choice of the characteristics of the bogus vortex, such as the radius and magnitude of the maximum wind. Second, the tropical cyclone trajectories can be very sensitive to their initial position in the idealised environment. Third, the bogus vortex can substantially influence the environment, especially over longer time periods and for vortices of larger size.With 9 Figures     

The use of rogation ceremony records in climatic reconstruction: a case study from Catalonia (Spain)

The use of rogation ceremonies due to environmental causes constitutes an important source of information in paleoclimatic reconstructions. Their specific characteristics and full documental records permit highly reliable series to be reconstructed with daily, monthly, seasonal or annual resolution over periods of several centuries (3–4 centuries in the case of Catalonia). The levels of intensity, reflected in the type of religious ceremony enacted, allows quantification. Comparative analysis is made possible by the similarity of the mechanisms developed in different localities. The use of these series in paleoclimatological studies is a promising line of research, particularly as regards the pro pluvia rogations celebrated in the Mediterranean countries and in South America.