A possible long-term solar impact on air temperature in relation to solar motion

Summary Using the long-term relations between solar motion and solar activity, long-term relations between solar activity and air temperature variations on the Earth's surface have been studied. A long-term periodicity in the period range from 25 to 250 years, corresponding to the periodicity of solar motion and solar activity, has been found in four very long European surface air temperature series. The positions of the spectral peaks approximately obey the relation p_i=178.7/i, i=1, 2, ... . Similar long-term patterns of solar and geomagnetic activity and of global surface air temperature have been found in the years 1861 to 1990. The results indicate that the solar activity impact on the climate could be significant, and that the prolonged minimum of solar activity, predicted from solar motion for the next 2 – 3 decades, could decreace global air temperatures.     

Modification of the Runcorn's equations on convection flows

Summary Runcorn's equations, which can be used to compute the stresses caused by convection flows from the outer gravity field, were transformed so that gravity anomalies or geoid heights can be employed as input data.

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au aa, m n¶rt;m u n u mmu u anu, a uu nmau, u maua ma, m unam u¶rt; ¶rt; ¶rt;a, aauu u mmu uu mu¶rt;a.

     

The planetary system and solar-terrestrial phenomena

Summary The Sun moves at different distances round the barycentre of the Solar System with different velocities depending on the distribution of the planets. The mean period of the Sun's motion round the barycentre of 11.8627 years and its time variability were observed. A relation between the basic period of 178.4 years and other periods p_i in the Sun's motion (p_i=178.4/i; i=1, 2, ...) was found. The consistency of the periods in the Sun's motion round the barycentre with the periods of different solar-terrestrial phenomena was studied. It seems that the planetary system governs these phenomena.

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n¶rt; ¶rt;u nu¶rt; au a ama um (11,8627 m) u auauu. a a¶rt;a nuua ¶rt; m¶rt;u nu¶rt;au ¶rt;uu a (p_i=178,4/i). mu nu¶rt;a u nma nu¶rt; n¶rt; a - u. na¶rt;u nu¶rt; am, m a uma nam mu u.

     

Long-term changes of the surface air temperature in relation to solar inertial motion

The inertial motion of the Sun around the barycentre, or centre of mass, of the Solar System has been employed as the base in searching for possible influence of the Solar System as a whole on climatic processes, especially on the changes in surface air temperature. A basic cycle of about 180–200 years and its higher harmonics up to 30 years have been found in surface air temperature of central Europe since 1753, established from 13 continuous instrumental time series. These periods correspond to the periods of solar inertial motion. In the first half of the 19th century, when the solar motion was chaotic, this temperature was about 0.75°C lower than that in the 20th (1940–50) and the 18th (1760–70) centuries. The mentioned decades of long-term temperature maxima coincide with the central decades of the ordered (trefoil) motion of the Sun. The temperatures in coastal Europe have been found to have slightly different properties, especially on a long-time scale. The periods of 35–45 years are significantly pronounced in the coastal Europe temperature spectrum. The chaotic motion of the Sun in the next decades could decrease both the solar forcing and global surface air temperature.This research was performed with support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, Grant No. 205/93/0417, I. Charvátová: Prognosis of climate development in central Europe.     

“Playing the game”, identity and perception-of-the-other in water cooperation in the Jordan River Basin

ABSTRACT

The concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has enjoyed immense popularity and thus has been the preferred approach for river basin management. IWRM generally has a strong focus on rational choice, based on a technocratic conceptual interpretation of the conventional hydrological cycle. However, uncritical acceptance of IWRM runs the risk of blinding policy makers and academics for the defining impact of context, socio-cultural, political, historical and cognitive dimensions in water cooperation. Human behaviour in water cooperation was tested and observed during eight experiments with the Jordan River Basin Boardgame Exercise (JRBBE) played with respondent groups from inside and outside the Jordan River Basin. The experiments consisted of one control group outside the basin and seven respondent groups both outside and inside the basin. This article argues that the role of identities, beliefs and perception-of-the-other, should be taken more into account in order to develop successful and socio-political sustainable river basin management.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned