A. International Symposium on Applications of Geodesy to Engineering May 13–17, Stuttgart, Germany

InformationsIAG Scientific Meetings in 1991

A. International Symposium on Applications of Geodesy to Engineering May 13–17, Stuttgart, Germany     

Perspectives of Cross-Correlation in Seismic Monitoring at the International Data Centre

We demonstrate that several techniques based on waveform cross-correlation are able to significantly reduce the detection threshold of seismic sources worldwide and to improve the reliability of arrivals by a more accurate estimation of their defining parameters. A master event and the events it can find using waveform cross-correlation at array stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) have to be close. For the purposes of the International Data Centre (IDC), one can use the spatial closeness of the master and slave events in order to construct a new automatic processing pipeline: all qualified arrivals detected using cross-correlation are associated with events matching the current IDC event definition criteria (EDC) in a local association procedure. Considering the repeating character of global seismicity, more than 90 % of events in the reviewed event bulletin (REB) can be built in this automatic processing. Due to the reduced detection threshold, waveform cross-correlation may increase the number of valid REB events by a factor of 1.5–2.0. Therefore, the new pipeline may produce a more comprehensive bulletin than the current pipeline—the goal of seismic monitoring. The analysts’ experience with the cross correlation event list (XSEL) shows that the workload of interactive processing might be reduced by a factor of two or even more. Since cross-correlation produces a comprehensive list of detections for a given master event, no additional arrivals from primary stations are expected to be associated with the XSEL events. The number of false alarms, relative to the number of events rejected from the standard event list 3 (SEL3) in the current interactive processing—can also be reduced by the use of several powerful filters. The principal filter is the difference between the arrival times of the master and newly built events at three or more primary stations, which should lie in a narrow range of a few seconds. In this study, one event at a distance of about 2,000 km from the main shock was formed by three stations, with the stations and both events on the same great circle. Such spurious events are rejected by checking consistency between detections at stations at different back azimuths from the source region. Two additional effective pre-filters are f–k analysis and F _prob based on correlation traces instead of original waveforms. Overall, waveform cross-correlation is able to improve the REB completeness, to reduce the workload related to IDC interactive analysis, and to provide a precise tool for quality check for both arrivals and events. Some major improvements in automatic and interactive processing achieved by cross-correlation are illustrated using an aftershock sequence from a large continental earthquake. Exploring this sequence, we describe schematically the next steps for the development of a processing pipeline parallel to the existing IDC one in order to improve the quality of the REB together with the reduction of the magnitude threshold.     

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.     

Local and remote response of the North Sea dynamics to morphodynamic changes in the Wadden Sea

The response of the tidal system in the southern North Sea to morphodynamic changes was investigated in a modelling study using fine resolution bathymetric observations available for 1982–2011. The Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) was set up for the different sets of bathymetries. One set of bathymetry was compiled from a large number of bathymetric measurements over many years, while the other two reflected bathymetry state in the area of Wadden Sea during 2000 and 2011, respectively. The temporal and spatial evolution of bathymetry was dominated by migration of tidal channels. The M4 tide showed larger sensitivity to bathymetric change in the Wadden Sea than the M2 tide, whereas the structure of the latter remained rather robust. The largest change of the tidal wave due to the differences in bathymetries was located off the North Frisian Wadden Sea. Traces of changes were also found far away from the regions of their origin because the tidal waves in the North Sea propagate the local disturbances basin-wide. This illustrated an efficient physical mechanism of teleconnectivity, i.e. effecting the local responses to the larger-scale or remote change of ocean bottom caused by erosion and deposition. The tidal distortion resulting from the relatively small bathymetric changes was substantial, particularly in the coastal zone. This is a manifestation of the nonlinear tidal transformation in shallow oceans and is crucial for the sediment transport and the morphodynamic feedback, because of the altered tidal asymmetry.     

Weak-anisotropy approximations of P-wave phase and ray velocities for anisotropy of arbitrary symmetry

We test the accuracy of the previously derived weak-anisotropy approximations of the P-wave phase and ray (group) velocities. The formulae are of varying accuracy, and are applicable to weak or moderate anisotropy of arbitrary symmetry and orientation. They have a form of expressions for squares of phase velocity depending on the phase-velocity direction and of ray velocity depending on the ray-velocity direction. Both velocities are expressed in terms of three elements of the rotated Christoffel matrix, which depend linearly on the parameters specifying the medium, the weak-anisotropy parameters. The least accurate formulae are fully independent of the choice of a reference isotropic medium and depend linearly on weak-anisotropy parameters. The most accurate formulae depend only slightly on the ratio of S- and P-wave velocities of a reference medium, their dependence on weak-anisotropy parameters being quadratic. We show that the accuracy of the formulae is quite high, in fact, in some cases, it is close to the accuracy of the socalled anelliptic approximations, very accurate approximations based on a perturbation of the elliptical anisotropy.     

Petrology and geochemistry of lava and ash erupted from Volcán Colima, Mexico, during 1998–2005

Lava (n = 8) and bulk ash samples (n = 6) erupted between July 1999 and June 2005 were investigated to extend time-series compositional and textural studies of the products erupted from Volcán Colima since 1869. In particular, we seek to evaluate the possibility that the current activity will culminate in major explosive Plinian-style event similar to that in 1913. Lava samples continue to show relatively heterogeneous whole-rock compositions with some significant mafic spikes (1999, 2001) as have prevailed since 1976. Groundmass SiO₂ contents continue trends to lower levels that have prevailed since 1961, in the direction of the still lower groundmass SiO₂ contents found in 1913 scoriae. Importantly, ash samples from investigated Vulcanian-style explosive eruptions in 2005 are devoid of particles with micro-vesiculated groundmass textures; such textures characterized the 1913 scoriae, signifying expansion of in-situ magmatic gas as the propellant of the 1913 eruption. All magmas erupted since 1913 appear to have arrived in the upper volcanic conduit system in a degassed state. The small to moderate Vulcanian-style explosive eruptions, which have been common since 1999 (> 16,000 events), have blasted ash clouds as high as 11 km a.s.l. and sent pyroclastic flows out to distances of 5 km. These eruptions do not appear to be powered by expansion of in-situ magmatic gas. New small lava domes have been observed in the crater prior to many explosive eruptions. These plugs of degassed lava may temporarily seal the conduit and allow the build-up of magmatic gases streaming upward from below ahead of rising and degassing magma. In this interpretation, when gas pressure exceeds the strength of the plug seal in the upper conduit, an explosive Vulcanian-style eruption occurs. Alternatively these explosive eruptions may represent interactions of hot rock and groundwater (phreato-magmatic).     

The effect of surface irregularities on a falling rock motion

This laboratory study seeks to investigate the effect of surface irregularities on the motion characteristics of a falling rock. The irregularly-shaped surfaces of greywacke with a range of joint roughness coefficient (JRC) from 2 to 18 were used in an experimental setup where a falling rock was dropped from a height of 110 cm. A high-speed camera was utilised to capture the trajectory of the falling rock upon its impact with the rock surface. The data from 287 tests were statistically analysed to determine the dominant type of motion and to establish relationships between JRC and the coefficient of restitution (CoR). The effect of surface roughness was seen in different modes of motion of the falling rock with more irregular surfaces often produced ‘sliding’ or ‘rolling’ instead of ‘bouncing’. The obtained data indicated that the rock surface roughness did not seem to have a significant effect on CoR; however, it affected the rebound angle of the falling rock.