Effects of soil heterogeneity on susceptibility of shallow landslides

Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.

     

New faint optical spectrophotometric standards: hot white dwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The spectral energy distributions for pure-hydrogen (DA) hot white dwarfs can be accurately predicted by model atmospheres. This makes it possible to define spectrophotometric calibrators by scaling the theoretical spectral shapes with broad-band photometric observations – a strategy successfully exploited for the spectrographs onboard the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) using three primary DA standards. Absolute fluxes for non-DA secondary standards, introduced to increase the density of calibrators in the sky, need to be referred to the primary standards, but a far better solution would be to employ a network of DA stars scattered throughout the sky. We search for blue objects in the sixth data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and fit DA model fluxes to identify suitable candidates. Reddening needs to be considered in the analysis of many of these stars. We propose a list of nine pure-hydrogen white dwarfs with absolute fluxes with estimated uncertainties below 3 per cent, including four objects with estimated errors <2 per cent, as candidates for spectrophotometric standards in the range  14 < g < 18  , and provide model-based fluxes scaled to match the SDSS broad-band fluxes for each. We apply the same method to the three HST DA standards, linking the zero point of their absolute fluxes to ugr magnitudes transformed from photometry obtained with the US Naval Observatory 1-m telescope. For these stars, we estimate uncertainties of <1 per cent in the optical, finding good consistency with the fluxes adopted for HST calibration.     

The determination of the regional part of the vertical gradient anomaly by a geodetic method

Summary The significance of the vertical gradients of gravity is great in geophysics and also in geodesy. In geophysics the observed vertical gradients can give valuable information about mass distributions close to the surface of the earth and in geodesy they may be used in determining the shape of the equipotential surfaces. The observed vertical gradients are very sensitive to masses close to the surface of the earth and they change very rapidly. Therefore, they should not be used for purposes such as the reduction of the observed gravity to the sea level. The normal vertical gradients are not the best either for this purpose because they are much too uniform on the surface of the earth. The best values for practical purposes are probably the regional vertical gradients.This paper presents a method to determine the regional vertical gradient anomalies in large areas from geodetic observations which, added to the normal part, will give the regional vertical gradients.     

Summer rainstorm associated with a debris flow in the Amarilla gully affecting the international Agua Negra Pass (30°20′S), Argentina

The Central-West region of Argentina was seriously affected by a series of convective summer storms on January–February of 2013 generating many debris flows and rockfall in the Central Andes mountain regions. In particular, the unreported 8th February event caused the sad death of a 10-year-old child being completely ignored by society and local authorities. Despite this, meteorological conditions associated with this event and further episodes were rarely measured and determined mainly due to scarce meteorological stations in Andean mountain areas. In this paper, meteorological data from CMORPH algorithm and measurements of surrounding gauges were analyzed for estimating the triggering precipitation value of this event. As well, the particular debris flow channeled into the main branch of the Amarilla gully in the Agua Negra valley was geomorphologically described. The amount of precipitation associated with this debris flow was 5.5 and 13.2 mm accumulated previous to the event. This violent debris flow was generated in a talus zone in a periglacial environment located just below a covered rock glacier. However, the influence of the permafrost thawing in this process is not feasible. The altitude of the 0 °C isotherm was lower during the previous days of the event, and no monitoring on permafrost is available for this area. The volume of removed mass was estimated in 5 × 10⁴ m³, and the mean velocity was 35 km/h. Boulders of 4 m diameter were found in the source area, while the deposit is up to 75% sandy with clasts that hardly exceed 10 cm in the alluvial fan distal part. Herein the main objective is to advice about the probable catastrophic impact of similar events in the future. These findings could be useful for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Agua Negra international pass under construction.     

The Cosmic Foreground Explorer (COFE): A balloon-borne microwave polarimeter to characterize polarized foregrounds

The COsmic Foreground Explorer (COFE) is a balloon-borne microwave polarimeter designed to measure the low-frequency and low-ℓ characteristics of dominant diffuse polarized foregrounds. Short duration balloon flights from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will allow the telescope to cover up to 80% of the sky with an expected sensitivity per pixel better than 100 μK/deg² from 10 GHz to 20 GHz. This is an important effort toward characterizing the polarized foregrounds for future CMB experiments, in particular the ones that aim to detect primordial gravity wave signatures in the CMB polarization angular power spectrum.     

FDwave3D: a MATLAB solver for the 3D anisotropic wave equation using the finite-difference method

Seismic modeling plays an important role in geophysics and seismology for estimating the response of seismic sources in a given medium. In this work, we present a MATLAB-based package, FDwave3D, for synthetic wavefield and seismogram modeling in 3D anisotropic media. The seismic simulation is carried out using the finite-difference method over the staggered grid, and it is applicable to both active and passive surveys. The code package allows the incorporation of arbitrary source mechanisms and offers spatial derivative operators of accuracy up to tenth-order along with different types of boundary conditions. First, the methodological aspects of finite-difference method are briefly introduced. Then, the code has been tested and verified against the analytical solutions obtained for the homogeneous model. Further, the numerical examples of layered and overthrust models are presented to demonstrate its reliability.

     

A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events

Drinking water security is a life safety issue as an adequate supply of safe water is essential for economic, social and sanitary reasons. Damage to any element of a water system, as well as corruption of resource quality, may have significant effects on the population it serves and on all other dependent resources and activities. As well as an analysis of the reliability of water distribution systems in ordinary conditions, it is also crucial to assess system vulnerability in the event of natural disasters and of malicious or accidental anthropogenic acts. The present work summarizes the initial results of research activities that are underway with the intention of developing a vulnerability assessment methodology for drinking water infrastructures subject to hazardous events. The main aim of the work was therefore to provide decision makers with an effective operational tool which could support them mainly to increase risk awareness and preparedness and, possibly, to ease emergency management. The proposed tool is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), a probabilistic methodology which has demonstrated outstanding potential to integrate a range of sources of knowledge, a great flexibility and the ability to handle in a mathematically sound way uncertainty due to data scarcity and/or limited knowledge of the system to be managed. The tool was implemented to analyze the vulnerability of two of the most important water supply systems in the Apulia region (southern Italy) which have been damaged in the past by natural hazards. As well as being useful for testing and improving the predictive capabilities of the methodology and for possibly modifying its structure and features, the case studies have also helped to underline its strengths and weaknesses. Particularly, the experiences carried out demonstrated how the use of BBN was consistent with the lack of data reliability, quality and accessibility which are typical of complex infrastructures, such as the water distribution networks. The potential applications and future developments of the proposed tool have been also discussed accordingly.     

A methodology for dealing with regional change in integrated water resources management

The paper presents a methodology on how to consistently deal with the future change and management options in integrated water resources management (IWRM). It is based on a conceptual framework with a five step procedure for the formulation and analysis of a so-called ‘parameterised regional futures’. Developing and testing the approach for IWRM is realised for the upper part of the Western Bug River catchment (Ukraine). Special attention is paid to scenarios of change covering climate and land use. The future regional climate is downscaled with the model CCLM. Land cover is projected after retrospective change detection and the derivation of prospective algorithms. Parameters of the interrelations between land use and the water cycle are tackled through using the concept of the model PWF-LU. The methodology is currently being tested to analyse the impacts of mid-term regional change and management options on the water cycle of the catchment.