Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences

Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region.     

The Pitcairn hotspot in the South Pacific: distribution and composition of submarine volcanic sequences

Multibeam bathymetry and bottom imaging (Simrad EM12D) studies on an area of about 9500 km² were conducted over the Pitcairn hotspot near 25°10′S, 129° 20′W. In addition, 15 dives with the Nautile submersible enabled us to obtain ground-true observations and to sample volcanic structures on the ancient ocean crust of the Farallon Plate at 3500–4300 m depths. More than 100 submarine volcanoes overprint the ancient crust and are divided according to their size into large (>2000 m in height), intermediate (500–2000 m high) and small (<500 m high) edifices. The interpretation of seafloor backscatter imagery accompanied by submersible observations and sampling enabled us to infer that the total volume of submarine lava erupted during hotspot activity is about 5900 km³ within a radius of about 110 km. The most recent volcanic activities occur on both small and large edifices composed of a great variety of lava flows. These flows vary in composition, following a succession from picritic basalt to alkali basalt, trachybasalt, trachy-andesite and to trachyte. Their large range of SiO₂ (48–62%), Na₂O+K₂O (2–11%), Ba (300–1300 ppm), MgO (1–11%), Nb (19–130 ppm), Ni (4–400 ppm) and rare earth elements suggests that crystal–liquid fractionation from basanite and/or picritic melt sources was a major process. The variation in composition between the least evolved basaltic rocks and the other more evolved silicic lava is marked by a difference in their flow morphology (pillow, giant tubes, tabular to blocky flows). The lava composition and field observation indicate that several magmatic pulses giving rise to cyclic eruptions are responsible for the construction of the edifices. The two larger edifices (>2000 m high) show more extensive eruptive events and a wider range in compositional variability than the smaller (<500 m high) ones. Several (five) submersible transects made along the slope of one of the largest edifices (Bounty) enabled us to observe at least nine successive eruptive cycles progressing from pillow and giant tubular basalt to tabular/blocky trachy-andesite and trachyte flows. Pyroclasts and hyaloclastites are often found with these eruptive sequences. The smaller edifices, forming individualized cones, are built mainly of evolved silicic (SiO₂>53%) flows consisting essentially of alternating sequences of trachy-andesite and trachyte. The distribution and composition of the small edifices suggest that they are the result of sub-crustal forceful magma injection and channeling supplied from reservoirs associated with the large volcanoes.     

China＇s regional transport dominance： Density, proximity, and accessibility

Transport infrastructure plays an important role in shaping the configuration of spatial socio-economic structures and influences regional accessibility. This paper defines transport dominance from three aspects: quality, quantity, and advantage, measured by density, proximity, and accessibility indices. County is the basic unit for analysis. The results reveal: (1) Transport dominance statistically follows a partial normal distribution. A very few counties, 1.4% of the total, have extremely high transport dominance which strongly supports the socio-economic development in these areas. In contrast, one eighth of all counties have poor transport dominance which impedes local socio-economic development to some extent. The remaining areas, about 70% of the counties, have median transport dominance. (2) Transport dominance is spatially unevenly distributed, with values decreasing gradually from the coastal area to the inland area. Areas in the first-highest level of transport dominance are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Beijing area, and the Pearl River Delta. Areas in the second-highest level are focused in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan metropolitan areas. Provincial capitals and a few other counties belong to the third-highest level.     

土耳其Pütürge变质地体晚白垩世岩浆作用与变质作用的年代学研究

Pütürge变质地体位于新特提斯构造带南部的土耳其Anatolia逆冲推覆构造带内,形成于欧亚板决与阿拉伯板块之间晚白垩纪碰撞造山事件.Pütürge变质地体主要由变质泥质片岩及片麻岩、花岗质片麻岩、石英岩、角闪岩和大理岩组成,发育类似巴罗型递增变质带的变质带序列,变质程度达高绿片岩相至低角闪岩相.此前该变质地体一直缺乏精确的年代学约束,为此我们采用了二次离子质谱锆石U-Pb测年方法和黑云母40Ar/39 Ar测年方法,对该变质地体进行了年代学研究.结果表明,区内花岗片麻岩原岩形成于84.2±1.1Ma,变质泥质片麻岩中黑云母40Ar/39 Ar年龄所代表的变质时代为83.21±0.1Ma.这说明早白垩世期间岩浆侵入事件不久,Pütürge变质地体就发生了区域变质作用.     

Precise orbit determination for the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellite mission using GPS

The joint Taiwan–US mission FORMOSAT-3/ COSMIC (COSMIC) was launched on April 17, 2006. Each of the six satellites is equipped with two POD antennas. The orbits of the six satellites are determined from GPS data using zero-difference carrier-phase measurements by the reduced dynamic and kinematic methods. The effects of satellite center of mass (COM) variation, satellite attitude, GPS antenna phase center variation (PCV), and cable delay difference on the COSMIC orbit determination are studied. Nominal attitudes estimated from satellite state vectors deliver a better orbit accuracy when compared to observed attitude. Numerical tests show that the COSMIC COM must be precisely calibrated in order not to corrupt orbit determination. Based on the analyses of the 5 and 6-h orbit overlaps of two 30-h arcs, orbit accuracies from the reduced dynamic and kinematic solutions are nearly identical and are at the 2–3 cm level. The mean RMS difference between the orbits from this paper and those from UCAR (near real-time) and WHU (post-processed) is about 10 cm, which is largely due to different uses of GPS ephemerides, high-rate GPS clocks and force models. The kinematic orbits of COSMIC are expected to be used for recovery of temporal variations in the gravity field.     

Characterization and seasonal variations of surface active substances in the natural sea surface micro-layers of the coastal Middle Adriatic stations

Surface micro-layer (ML) samples were collected in different seasons over a long time period in the coastal area of the Middle Adriatic Sea including the seawater Rogoznica lake location and the semi-enclosed estuarine Martinska station. Natural surface micro-layers were studied as original samples and as ex-situ reconstructed films after previous extraction by organic solvents of different polarities (n-hexane and dichloromethane). Using alternating current (AC) voltammetry (out-of-phase mode) the concentration of surface active substances (SAS) in original ML of both locations was determined, and the enrichment factor (EF) in the ML was related to the underlayer water (ULW) samples collected at 0.5 m depth. Seasonal variability of SAS concentrations of the ML was observed at both locations. The ex-situ films were studied using a modified AC voltammetry method (out-of-phase mode) transferring an organic extract of natural micro-layers spread onto electrolyte from the air-water interface to the mercury electrode surface. The comparison of adsorption characteristics for model lipids of different polarities and those of transferred ex-situ reconstructed films has revealed that different types of lipid material were present in each ex-situ film of the same micro-layer. Additional characterization of the surface active material of natural MLs was carried out by AC voltammetry (in-phase mode) using cathodic reduction of cadmium ions as an indicator of permeability of different films adsorbed at the mercury electrode. The SAS of ML of both investigated locations induced an inhibition effect to the reduction of cadmium ions. Seasonal variations of inhibition have also been noticed. The electrochemical study contributed to the physicochemical characterization of the surface active matter of the surface micro-layer with the emphasis to the role of lipids which, although they represent a minor fraction of the total micro-layer organic material, contribute considerably to the micro-layer formation and stabilization at the air–water interface.     

Automated Meteor Detection by All-Sky Digital Camera Systems

We have developed a set of methods to detect meteor light traces captured by all-sky CCD cameras. Operating at small automatic observatories (stations), these cameras create a network spread over a large territory. Image data coming from these stations are merged in one central node. Since a vast amount of data is collected by the stations in a single night, robotic storage and analysis are essential to processing. The proposed methodology is adapted to data from a network of automatic stations equipped with digital fish-eye cameras and includes data capturing, preparation, pre-processing, analysis, and finally recognition of objects in time sequences. In our experiments we utilized real observed data from two stations.     

Wave boundary layer over a stone-covered bed

This paper summarizes the results of an experimental investigation on wave boundary layers over a bed with large roughness, simulating stone/rock/armour block cover on the sea bottom. The roughness elements used in the experiments were stones the size of 1.4cm and 3.85cm in one group of experiments and regular ping-pong balls the size 3.6cm in the other. The orbital-motion-amplitude-to-roughness ratio at the bed was rather small, in the range a/k_s = 0.6–3. The mean and turbulence properties of the boundary-layer flow were measured. Various configurations of the roughness elements were used in the ping-pong ball experiments to study the influence of packing pattern, packing density, number of layers and surface roughness of the roughness elements. The results show that the friction factor seems to be not extremely sensitive to these factors. The results also show that the friction factor for small values of the parameter a/k_s does not seem to tend to a constant value as a/k_s → 0 (contrary to the suggestion made by some previous investigators). The present friction-factor data indicates that the friction factor constantly increases with decreasing a/k_s. An empirical expression is given for the friction factor for small values of a/k_s. The results further show that the phase lead of the bed friction velocity over the surface elevation does not seem to change radically with a/k_s, and found to be in the range 12°–23°. Furthermore the results show that the boundary-layer turbulence also is not extremely sensitive to the packing pattern, the packing density, the number of layers and the surface roughness of the roughness elements. There exists a steady streaming near the bed in the direction of wave propagation, in agreement with the existing work. The present data indicate that the steady streaming is markedly smaller in the case where the ping-pong balls are aligned at 45° to the wave direction than in the case with 90° alignment. Likewise, it is found that the steady streaming is relatively smaller in the case of the one-layer ping-pong-ball roughness than in the case of the two-layer situation.     

Xonotlit und Pektolith aus basischen Gesteinen des Peridotitgabbrokomplexes im Zlatibor-Gebirge,Jugoslawien

Zusammenfassung Im westlichen Randgebiet des Zlatibor-Gebirges, im Tal des Flusses Lim, wurden in der Nähe des Ortes Bistrica in der Randzone einer kleineren Pyroxenitmasse gegen angrenzenden serpentinisierten Peridotit dünnere, milchweiße Adern gefunden. Sie bestehen aus Xonotlit und Pektolith. Der Xonotlit ist nach seinem äußeren Aussehen Chalcedon-ähnlich; von ihm werden die zentralen Teile der Äderchen eingenommen. Der Pektolith ist weiß und faserig; aus ihm bestehen die Ränder der Adern. Die Resultate der ausführlichen optischen, quantitativ chemischen, thermischen und röntgenographischen Untersuchungen sowie der Untersuchungen im infraroten Spektralgebiet stimmen mit bisher bestehenden Angaben für beide Minerale überein.Die Genesis dieser Minerale läßt sich auf die Umwandlung der basischen, primäre Calciumminerale enthaltenden Gesteine zurückzuführen. Es entstehen dabei in diesen Gesteinen aus Calciummineralen verschiedene sekundäre Minerale. Der Überschuß des Calciums und Siliciums wird unter den meso- bis katathermalen Umständen in der Form einfacher Adernparagenesen ausgeschieden.

---

Xonotlite and pectolite from basic rocks of the peridotite-gabbro-complex in the Zlatibor-mountains, Yugoslavia

Summary In the Lim valley, at the western slope of Mount Zlatibor, near the village of Bistrica there is a minor pyroxenite mass surrounded by serpentinized peridotite. The border zone of pyroxenite contains milk-white viens composed of the rare minerals xonotlite and pectolite. Xonotlite is in its outer appearance similar to chalcedony and occupies the central parts of the veins. Pectolite is white and fibrous, and is confined to the outer parts of the veins.The results of detailed optical, quantitative chemical, thermal and x-ray examinations, and of infrared spectral analyses agree with the hitherto known data on both minerals.The origin of these minerals may be explained by alteration of basic rocks containing primary calcium minerals. Different secondary minerals can be formed from calcium minerals by such processes. The excess calcium and silica precipitate in the form of simple vein associations under the mesoto katathermal conditions.

---

---

Mit 2 Abbildungen     

Changes in temperature extremes and their possible causes at the SE boundary of the Alps

Summary A trend analysis is performed on the years 1954 to 1995 annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, air pressure, and occurrence of different weather types, grouped according to the related diurnal temperature ranges for two mountain stations in Croatia. During the last 42 years an increase in annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperature has occurred. At both stations the increase in mean maximum was faster than in the mean minimum, resulting in an increase in mean diurnal temperature range. At the same time mean annual air pressure shows a significant increase both at Zavian and at Puntijarka. An increase in occurrence of weather types with high diurnal temperature range appears at both locations, but is significant only at the inland station of Puntijarka.With 5 Figures