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991.
992.
John Douglas Didier Bertil Agathe Roullé Pascal Dominique Philippe Jousset 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(3):271-299
Strong-motion networks have been operating in the Caribbean region since the 1970s, however, until the mid-1990s only a few analogue stations were operational and the quantity of data recorded was very low. Since the mid-1990s, digital accelerometric networks have been established on islands within the region. At present there are thought to be about 160 stations operating in this region with a handful on Cuba, 65 on the French Antilles (mainly Guadeloupe and Martinique), eight on Jamaica, 78 on Puerto Rico (plus others on adjacent islands) and four on Trinidad.After briefly summarising the available data from the Caribbean islands, this article is mainly concerned with analysing the data that has been recorded by the networks operating on the French Antilles in terms of their distribution with respect to magnitude, source-to-site distance, focal depth and event type; site effects at certain stations; and also with respect to their predictability by ground motion estimation equations developed using data from different regions of the world. More than 300 good quality triaxial acceleration time-histories have been recorded on Guadeloupe and Martinique at a large number of stations from earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4.8, however, most of the records are from considerable source-to-site distances. From the data available it is found that many of the commonly-used ground motion estimation equations for shallow crustal earthquakes poorly estimate the observed ground motions on the two islands; ground motions on Guadeloupe and Martinique have smaller amplitudes and are more variable than expected. This difference could be due to regional dependence of ground motions because of, for example, differing tectonics or crustal structures or because the ground motions so far recorded are, in general, from smaller earthquakes and greater distances than the range of applicability of the investigated equations. 相似文献
993.
Diffuse Emission of CO2 from Showa-Shinzan, Hokkaido, Japan: A Sign of Volcanic Dome Degassing 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Pedro A. Hernández Kenji Notsu Hiromu Okada Toshiya Mori Masanori Sato Francisco Barahona Nemesio M. Pérez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(4):869-881
Two soil CO2 efflux surveys were carried out in September 1999 and June 2002 to study the spatial distribution of diffuse CO2 degassing and estimate the total CO2 output from Showa-Shinzan volcanic dome, Japan. Seventy-six and 81 measurements of CO2 efflux were performed in 1999 and 2002, respectively, covering most of Showa-Shinzan volcano. Soil CO2 efflux data showed a wide range of values up to 552 g m-2 d-1. Carbon isotope signatures of the soil CO2 ranged from -0.9‰ to -30.9‰, suggesting a mixing between different carbon reservoirs. Most of the study area showed CO2 efflux background values during the 1999 and 2002 surveys (B = 8.2 and 4.4 g m-2 d-1, respectively). The spatial distribution of CO2 efflux anomalies for both surveys showed a good correlation with the soil temperature, indicating a similar origin for the
extensive soil degassing generated by condensation processes and fluids discharged by the fumarolic system of Showa-Shinzan.
The total diffuse CO2 output of Showa-Shinzan was estimated to be about 14.0–15.6 t d-1 of CO2 for an area of 0.53 km2. 相似文献
994.
Explicit formula for the geoid-quasigeoid separation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The explicit formula for the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction is derived in this paper. On comparing the geoidal height and
height anomaly, this correction is found to be a function of the mean value of gravity disturbance along the plumbline within
the topography. To evaluate the mean gravity disturbance, the gravity field of the Earth is decomposed into components generated
by masses within the geoid, topography and atmosphere. Newton’s integration is then used for the computation of topography-and
atmosphere-generated components of the mean gravity, while the combined solution for the downward continuation of gravity
anomalies and Stokes’ boundary-value problem is utilized in computing the component of mean gravity disturbance generated
by mass irregularities within the geoid. On application of this explicit formulism a theoretical accuracy of a few millimetres
can be achieved in evaluation of the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction. However, the real accuracy could be lower due to deficiencies
within the numerical methods and to errors within the input data (digital terrain and density models and gravity observations). 相似文献
995.
Alix Lombard Anny Cazenave Pierre Yves Le Traon Stephanie Guinehut Cécile Cabanes 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):445-451
In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous
location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the
observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church
et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions.
However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part
(about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion
was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate
of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using
a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global
gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric
sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both
time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs
to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise.
Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third
assessment report. 相似文献
996.
Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California 总被引:1,自引:3,他引:1
Stacy K. Tanaka Tingju Zhu Jay R. Lund Richard E. Howitt Marion W. Jenkins Manuel A. Pulido Mélanie Tauber Randall S. Ritzema Inês C. Ferreira 《Climatic change》2006,76(3-4):361-387
The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies. 相似文献
997.
A 44-year (1958–2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. 相似文献
998.
Institutional Adaptation of Water Resource Infrastructures to Climate Change in Eastern Ontario 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones. 相似文献
999.
Amaelle Landais Valérie Masson-Delmotte Jean Jouzel Dominique Raynaud Sigfus Johnsen Christof Huber Markus Leuenberger Jakob Schwander Bénédicte Minster 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(2-3):273-284
The mechanisms involved in the glacial inception are still poorly constrained due to a lack of high resolution and cross-dated
climate records at various locations. Using air isotopic measurements in the recently drilled NorthGRIP ice core, we show
that no evidence exists for stratigraphic disturbance of the climate record of the last glacial inception (∼123–100 kyears
BP) encompassing Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO) 25, 24 and 23, even if we lack sufficient resolution to completely rule out
disturbance over DO 25. We quantify the rapid surface temperature variability over DO 23 and 24 with associated warmings of
10±2.5 and 16±2.5°C, amplitudes which mimic those observed in full glacial conditions. We use records of δ18O of O2 to propose a common timescale for the NorthGRIP and the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, with a maximum uncertainty of 2,500 years,
and to examine the interhemispheric sequence of events over this period. After a synchronous North–South temperature decrease,
the onset of rapid events is triggered in the North through DO 25. As for later events, DO 24 and 23 have a clear Antarctic
counterpart which does not seem to be the case for the very first abrupt warming (DO 25). This information, when added to
intermediate levels of CO2 and to the absence of clear ice rafting associated with DO 25, highlights the uniqueness of this first event, while DO 24
and 23 appear similar to typical full glacial DO events. 相似文献
1000.
Summary The aim of the paper lies in the identification of possible significant linear trends at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales
in the Mediterranean during the second half of the 20th century. Monthly and daily records of 63 stations have been used to
elaborate several precipitation indices: sum of daily precipitation (SDP) for rainfall >0.1 mm, >10 mm and >95th percentile, of number of rainy days (RD) >0.1 mm and >10 mm and of mean daily precipitation (MDP) >0.1 mm and >10 mm. For
each index the stations have been gathered together by Rotated Principal Component Analyses to determine 8 sub-areas which
can be considered as identical for all the timescales at the spatial scale of the research. Trends have been estimated from
the scores of each eigenvector retained in all RPCAs. They are mainly non existant or non significant decreasing, even if
a few monthly trends appear to be significantly diminishing, primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region,
October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and the year in Greece, winter
and the year in Italy and winter in the Near East and increasing in April in the two gulfs. Correlation coefficients between
SDP>0.1 mm and other indices have been computed: the significant trends seem mainly related to RD>10 mm, which represents
a high percentage of the total rainfall amount. Greece is remarkable: SDP>0.1 mm and >10 mm decrease significantly during
January, winter, the rainy season and the entire year whereas SDP>95th percentile increases significantly, in accordance with the climatic change scenarios for the end of this century as does
the decreasing of the total monthly and seasonal rainfall. 相似文献