Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Combining European Earth Observation products with Dynamic Global Vegetation Models for estimating Essential Biodiversity Variables

ABSTRACT

Global, fast and accessible monitoring of biodiversity is one of the main pillars of the efforts undertaken in order to revert it loss. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON) provided an expert-based definition of the biological properties that should be monitored, the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). Initiatives to provide indicators for EBVs rely on global, freely available remote sensing (RS) products in combination with empirical models and field data, and are invaluable for decision making. In this study, we provide alternatives for the expansion and improvement of the EBV indicators, by suggesting current and future data from the European Space Agencýs COPERNICUS and explore the potential of RS-integrated Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the estimation of EBVs. Our review found that mainly due to the inclusion of the Sentinel constellation, Copernicus products have similar or superior potential for EBV indicator estimation in relation to their NASA counterparts. DGVMs simulate the ecosystem level EBVs (ecosystem function and structure), and when integrated with remote sensing data have great potential to not only offer improved estimation of current states but to provide projection of ecosystem impacts. We suggest that focus on producing EBV relevant outputs should be a priority within the research community, to support biodiversity preservation efforts.     

Wavelet analysis of the standard map: Structure and scaling

Wavelet analysis is applied to distributions of points generated by iterating the standard map. The initial condition is chosen so that the points fill the largest chaotic region. When the standard map parameterk=1.3, the distribution of points contains many voids corresponding to islands in the chaotic region. The wavelet transform is dominated by contributions from these islands. Fork=10 the chaos fills phase space and no structure is apparent; the wavelet transform reveals statistical fluctuations in the distribution of points.     

Flexible Automatic Scheduling for Autonomous Telescopes: The MAJORDOME

We have developped a new method for the scheduling ofastronomical automatic telescopes, in the framework of theautonomous TAROT instrument. The MAJORDOME software canhandle a variety of observations, constrained, periodic,etc., and produces a timeline for the night, which may bemodified at any time to take into account the specificconditions of the night. The MAJORDOME can also handletarget of opportunity observations without delay.     

Hydration shell structures in a LiI solution at elevated temperature and pressure: a molecular dynamics study

Molecular dynamics simulations of a 0.55 molal aqueous LiI solution have been performed at 508 K and 308 K and a density of 1.05 g/cm³. The structural changes resulting from increased temperature and pressure are discussed.     

The integral equation approach to the study of interplanetary dust

Some considerations about the zodiacal light brightness integral from the stand point of the theory of integral equations are made. It is shown that for observation directions confined to a plane perpendicular to the ecliptic and passing through the Sun, the Z.L. brightness integral can be formally considered as a first kind integral equation of Volterra type (V.I.E.). In a second step, this equation is transformed into a V.I.E. of the second kind, from which, and under certain assumptions, the spatial distribution of dust out of the ecliptic is obtained.     

Circulation and fertility of waters in Concepcion Bay

The spatial and temporal distributions of oxygen, nutrients and pigments in the waters of Concepcion Bay, Chile (36°40′S, 73°01′W) are described for 1978–1979. Analysis of the seasonal fluctuations shows the upwelling of water poor in oxygen and rich in nutrients inside the bay during summer. The upwelled water fertilizes the bay and produces progressive eutrophication, causing mass mortalities, discoloured water and mineralization of organic matter.     

On hierarchical cosmology

Progress in laboratory studies of plasmas and in the methods of transferring the results to cosmic conditions, together within situ measurements in the magnetospheres, are now causing a ‘paradigm transition’ in cosmic plasma physics. This involves an introduction ofinhomogeneous models with double layers, filaments, ‘cell walls’, etc. Independently, it has been discovered that the mass distribution in the universe is highly inhomogeneous; indeed,hierarchical. According to de Vaucouleurs, the escape velocity of cosmic structures is 10²–10³ times below the Laplace-Schwarzschild limit, leaving avoid region which is identified as a key problem in cosmology. It is shown that a plasma instability in the dispersed medium of the structures may produce this void and, hence, explain the hierarchical structure. The energy which is necessary may derive either from gravitation or from annihilation caused by a breakdown of cell walls. The latter alternative is discussed in detail. It leads to a ‘Fireworks Model’ of the evolution of the metagalaxy. It is questioned whether the homogeneous four-dimensional big bang model can survive in an universe which is inhomogeneous and three-dimensional.     

Voids in the tolman-bondi universe

In the paper the void is modeled as a spherical underdense region surrounded by shells changing into the Friedmannian exterior. This model is in fact a single Tolman-Bondi metric, where at the edge of the void the density need not be continuous. In principle, there may exist 72 variations. These models contain also the cases, when in the void itself there is a Minkowskian vacuum; the shell crossing is not excluded, too. Some technical results are obtained for the Tolman-Bondi metric. Using them, the questions of stability and other theoretical problems are investigated. Some observational facts concerning the voids are also used. As the key result a truncation of the possible models is obtained; only 14 models are physically reasonable. This means that the universe is either hyperbolically expanding (this possibility strengthens the proposition of Bonnor and Chamorro, (1990); (1991)), or there is a shell crossing. Thus the discovery of voids is an observational support either for the open universe or for the shell crossing scenario of galaxy formation (Mészáros, 1991), where no anisotropy of microwave background radiation is needed in a baryon dominated universe.