Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

Hindcast skill and predictability for precipitation and two-meter air temperature anomalies in global circulation models over the Southeast United States

This paper presents an assessment of the seasonal prediction skill of current global circulation models, with a focus on the two-meter air temperature and precipitation over the Southeast United States. The model seasonal hindcasts are analyzed using measures of potential predictability, anomaly correlation, Brier skill score, and Gerrity skill score. The systematic differences in prediction skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere models versus models using prescribed (either observed or predicted) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are documented. It is found that the predictability and the hindcast skill of the models vary seasonally and spatially. The largest potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) of precipitation anywhere in the United States is found in the Southeast in the spring and winter seasons. The maxima in the potential predictability of two-meter air temperature, however, reside outside the Southeast in all seasons. The largest deterministic hindcast skill over the Southeast is found in wintertime precipitation. At the same time, the boreal winter two-meter air temperature hindcasts have the smallest skill. The large wintertime precipitation skill, the lack of corresponding two-meter air temperature hindcast skill, and a lack of precipitation skill in any other season are features common to all three types of models (atmospheric models forced with observed SSTs, atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs, and coupled ocean–atmosphere models). Atmospheric models with observed SST forcing demonstrate a moderate skill in hindcasting spring-and summertime two-meter air temperature anomalies, whereas coupled models and atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs lack similar skill. Probabilistic and categorical hindcasts mirror the deterministic findings, i.e., there is very high skill for winter precipitation and none for summer precipitation. When skillful, the models are conservative, such that low-probability hindcasts tend to be overestimates, whereas high-probability hindcasts tend to be underestimates.     

Application of gravity and magnetic methods for the crustal study and delineating associated ores in the western limb of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis,Northwest Himalayas,Pakistan

The present geophysical study deals with the ores and crustal demonstration of southeastern Hazara and its adjoining areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan, on the basis of terrestrial gravity and magnetic data. Tectonically, the study area lies in the Lesser Himalayas as well as to an extent in the sub-Himalaya, more specifically in the western limb of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis. In this study, 567 gravity and 508 magnetic stations have been measured with CG-5 gravimeter and proton precession magnetometer, respectively. The collected data have been processed by applying standard corrections and then different types of maps were prepared. The ores in the area have been delineated by the qualitative interpretation of residual Bouguer anomaly and reduction to pole total magnetic intensity maps, whereas regional structures are demarcated by the Bouguer anomaly and regional Bouguer anomaly maps. The positive contour closures on the residual Bouguer anomaly map indicate the iron ore and phosphate, whereas negative contour closures are the effects of low-density material which consists of gypsum and soapstone. The pole-reduced total intensity map also shows the negative and positive contour closures almost in the same localities and confirms the residual Bouguer anomaly map. The geological model computed on the basis of Bouguer anomaly demarcated a series of faults between different rock units in the study area. The Kashmir Boundary Thrust cuts the western limb of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis near the apex in the north of Muzaffarabad and marks the boundary between Murree Formation and carbonates of Abbottabad Formation. The gravity model also suggests that the thickness of the crust increases towards the northeast.     

Evaluation of the weather generator CLIGEN with daily precipitation characteristics in Korea

The ability of the CLImate GENerator (CLIGEN) weather generator to reproduce daily precipitation characteristics for Korea was assessed on the basis of 55-year long historical daily precipitation records from eight weather stations (Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan, Kangneung, and Jeonju) representing different parts of the Korean peninsula. The basic statistics of daily precipitation (mean, standard deviation, skewness of daily precipitation, number of rainy days, and the lengths of wet/dry period), probability distribution characteristics of daily precipitation (percentiles and maximum value), and the spatial covariance statistic generated by CLIGEN were compared with those derived from the observed weather series. Significance tests were conducted on the difference between the historical and generated statistics with the 1% significance level. The results show that CLIGEN simulates most of the daily precipitation characteristics satisfactorily with a tendency to slightly underestimate the mean and variability of daily precipitation. Especially, the number of rainy days is perfectly reproduced with mean relative error of 0.4% across all the stations. It is also found that the spatial covariance statistic from eight different stations is well reproduced by CLIGEN with respect to the leading EOF mode of summer season daily precipitation.     

Dissolution and Deformation Characteristics of Limestones Containing Different Calcite and Dolomite Content Induced by CO2-Water-Rock Interaction

To investigate the impacts of mineral composition on physical and mechanical properties of carbonate rocks, limestone specimens containing different contents in calcite and dolomite are selected to perform CO2-water-rock reaction experiments. The X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) are carried out to examine the change characteristics of mineral dissolution and pore structure after reaction. The core flooding experiments with Fiber Bragg gratings are implemented to examine the stress sensitivity of carbonate rocks. The results show that the limestones containing pure calcite are more susceptible to acid dissolution compared to limestone containing impure dolomite. The calcite content in pure limestone decreases as the reaction undergoes. The dissolution of dolomite leads to the formation of calcite in impure limestone. Calcite dissolution leads to the formation of macropore and flow channels in pure limestone, while the effects of impure dolomite in impure limestone results in mesopore formation. When confining pressure is lower than 12 MPa, pure limestones demonstrate higher strain sensitivity coefficients compared to impure limestone containing dolomite after reaction. When confining pressure exceeds 12 MPa, the strain sensitivity coefficients of both pure and impure limestones become almost equal.     

Determination of groundwater potential by using geoelectrical method and petrographic analysis in Rawalakot and adjacent areas of Azad Kashmir,sub-Himalayas,Pakistan

The current study is carried out for the determination of groundwater potential in District Rawalakot Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) Pakistan by using electrical resistivity method and petrographic analysis of the area. The tape-compass-clinometers method was used in section measurement to understand the facies and depositional environment. The electrical resistivity survey was carried out in the project area in sub-Himalayan Siwaliks system of Pakistan to overcome water scarcity in a few regions. The area was chartered with the Schlumberger configuration up to the AB/2 depth of 150 m. The ABEM Terrameter SAS 4000 (Sweden) and accessories were used to acquire vertical electrical soundings in 24 locations. The results obtained through the 2D and 3D isoresistivity maps of apparent resistivity for 15, 45, and 130 m spacings, the 3D isoresistivity maps of transverse resistance and anisotropy, the VES curve types, and the measured stratigraphic section of surface rocks revealed the confined or semi-confined type aquifers within sedimentary formations. The petrographic analysis indicates the clues of the secondary porosity and fluid migrations through the rocks.     

Influence of atmospheric dust on non-telescopic sunspot observations

Catalogues of non-telescopic sunspot observations from the Orient have been presented by several authors. Since atmospheric dust facilitates naked-eye observation of the Sun we investigate its possible influence by comparing the historical records of sunspot sightings and atmospheric dust storms. A distinction is made between the record up to the end of the Ming dynasty that is based on court documents and the post-Ming reports that are all provincial sightings. The earlier record is found to be significantly anti-correlated with C-14 fluctuations while the latter one is weakly anti-correlated. The provincial sightings contain a much larger signature of atmospheric turbidity, as is also indicated by their poor comparison with telescopic data.     

Mapping of fluoride ions in groundwater of Dindigul district, Tamilnadu, India—using GIS technique

The accurate information through water quality analysis, scientific study on F ^? distribution in groundwater and geochemical knowledge with spatial information on geology and climate are necessary to understand the source/cause, type and level of F ^? contamination. The Dindigul district is a hard-rock terrain and marked as one of the fluoride-rich area in Tamilnadu due to occurrence of various rock types including fluoride-bearing minerals. The F ^? content of groundwater can thus originate from the dissolution of fluoride-bearing minerals in the bed rock. Eighty-six representative groundwater samples from Dindigul district was collected during two different seasons. Samples were analysed for F ^?, other major cations and anions. The study area is chiefly composed of hornblende biotite gneiss and charnockite, apart from this untreated tannery effluents also let from many places in the study area. Geographical Information System technique was adopted to study the sources of F ^?, and it was found that F ^? in the study is mainly attributed to geogenic source.     

Sensitivity of secular trends in precipitation data to observational errors

There has been considerable interest in estimating secular trends in precipitation data in various regions of the world. It is therefore important to ascertain the manner in which errors of observation affect estimated trends. For this purpose we have compared trends at 1219 stations in the contiguous United States for two data sets: (a) original observations, also called raw observations, and (b) the observations, adjusted to compensate for suspected errors. The adjustments were made at the National Climate Data Center, Asheville (Quinlan et al., 1987;karl andWilliams, 1987), In order to focus on the effects of observational errors we attempted to avoid the effects of filling of missing data by limiting the analysis to the period 1940–1984 for which the number of missing values is much smaller than earlier periods. A least-square linear regression was performed on the raw and adjusted data for each station and the slopes of the fitted lines were compared. The comparison was made for monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation values.The results for annual precipitation showed that 23 percent of the stations have trends of opposite signs in the raw and adjusted data. The trends were identical in annual data at only 11 percent of the stations. When monthly data are combined to form seasonal and annual averages the magnitude of the difference between the slopes of the adjusted and the raw observations generally increases, indicating that the errors in the individual monthly observations are correlated. When the station data were averaged to obtain state-wide averages, the effects of the errors became less pronounced in most of the states. These results indicate that obtaining trends in precipitation from station data is a more difficult problem than has been realized.