Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。     

A simple approach for the determination of bulk modulus and equation of state under the effect of high temperature for minerals

A simple theoretical method for the determination of bulk modulus and equation of state is investigated and applied for six minerals of geophysical importance. The results obtained at different temperatures are found to present a good agreement with the experimental data. The simplicity of the method is discussed in the light of other methods in high temperature research on minerals. Received: 7 January 1996 / Revised, accepted: 11 June 1997     

The role of multispectral imagery in elucidation of recent channel pattern changes in middle ganga plain

The mapability of Landsat images has opened up a new potentiality for study of channel pattern changes which was earlier not so easy due to nonavailability of suitable evidences at different timespans. Middle Ganga plain covering largely the northern part of Bihar and parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh is in a slate of perpetual flux due to large scale channel migration and avulsion resulting in devastating floods. Mosaic of three Landsat images has helped to study the channel changes which have occurred since 1935. The course of the river Ganga has beeh digitised along a basal line and two dimensional coordinates are taken at as many as more than fifty sample points for studying the magnitude and direction of channel changes during 1935–1975 period. The analysis shows that the main multiple channel river Ganga is under the huge hydrostatic thrust to be shifted towards south of its basin annually at a very high rate of 100 Meter per year all along the course except at its upstream near Ghazipur and at Monghyr where the shifting is towards north. The northward bend at Monghyr may be due to the presence of the Precambrian outliers here. For the multi-and single channelld tributaries of Ganga in channel behaviour is mainly in three directions—the lower water channels in the floodplain of Ganga are shifting to the south in conformity with that of their parent stream, the tributaries in Gogra-Gandak doab are shifting towards east but the shifting of the Kosi-Mahananda group of tributaries in the eastern part of the basin is towards west These channel pattern changes thus known at the interregional scale from the Landsat images may further be integrated with the study in hydrogeomorphology and their pertinent environmental impact.     

Paleomagnetic data from tertiary igneous rocks,northeast Jalisco,Mexico

New paleomagnetic measurements have been made on Tertiary volcanic rocks from northeast Jalisco, Mexico (20.7°N, 102.3°W). The pole position obtained from this study (68°N, 181°E) is consistent with two other Oligocene poles from Mexico. Mexican poles form a coherent group which differs from poles of similar ages from North America. This suggests a possible tectonic rotation of the sampling sites of Mexico with respect to “stable” North America.     

Fluid+melt intrusions in lechatelierite from the Popigai suevites: A product of dynamic interaction melts and fluids during the shock melting of the target gneiss

The paper presents data on lechatelierite form suevites of the Daldyn Formation in the Popigai astrobleme. Some of the lechatelierite samples show a complicated structure and contain block of diaplectic quartz glass and dynamic “intrusions” of glasses of types I, II, and III. The glasses of types I and II abound in fluid inclusions and display evidence of partial homogenization with lechatelierite. The glasses of type III are clearly separated from all other glasses but show evidence of dynamic interaction with them in the molten state. Fluid inclusions in the glasses of types I and II are syngenetic but have notably different densities from those of completely liquid or gaseous inclusions at 20°C. As is indicated by cryometric data, the liquid phase of the inclusions is aqueous solution of low salinity (5–8 wt % NaCl_equiv). The bulk petrochemistry of the glasses of type I characterizes them as highly silicic (96.04 wt % SiO₂ on average), with elevated K and Na concentrations (Na₂O + K₂O = 0.72 wt % on average), with 0.73 wt % Al₂O₃ (on average) and analytical totals 1.97 wt % less than 100%. The glasses of type II are also rich in SiO₂ (91.51 wt % SiO₂ on average) but contain a broader spectrum of concentrations of major oxides (totaling 5.53 wt % on average) and deficient analytical totals (by 2.96 wt % on average). The glasses of type III are completely equal to impactites produced by melting gneisses of the Popigai astrobleme. The glasses of type I are interpreted to be the intrusion products of the “early” highly mobile and H₂O-rich fluid+melt mixtures, whose protolithic material was K-Na feldspars of the target rocks. The derivation of these melts was associated with the capturing of much silica and water at a highly mobile behavior of K and Na and an inert behavior of Al. The glasses of type II were produced by the extensive mixing of silica and water at the limited involvement of apogneiss melts, and these glasses are sometimes deficient in Al. The glasses of type III are usual mixed apogneiss melts. Excess silica in the glasses of types I and II and their richness in water and deficiency in Al suggest impact anatexis and the selective separation of components during their derivation; the parental fluid-melt mixtures of these glasses were derived from such “hydrous” varieties of the target gneisses as diaphthorized and fractured rocks. The evolution and partial vitrification of lechatelierite and the glasses of types I and II proceeded under residual shock pressures, as follows from data on the dense (from ∼0.5 to 1 g/cm³) aqueous inclusions in these glasses, which suggest that the inclusions were captured in the glasses under pressures from ∼0.8 to 3.3 GPa. It follows that our lechatelierite samples have a complex multistage genesis, and their quenching facilitated the preservation of “intrusions” of various stages of shock melting, including the products of the “early” impact anatexis of the gneisses with the selective separation of components at the active participation of water.