Simulation of West African monsoon using the RegCM3. Part I: Model validation and interannual variability

Summary The West African monsoon oscillates each year with remarkable regularity but the interannual variability associated with the monsoon is not fully understood although much progress has been made in recent years. This study examines and evaluates the mean state and the interannual variability of the West African climate as simulated by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) over the period 1979 through 1990 using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data as lateral boundary conditions. Our analysis shows that the averaged rainfall over the region is well represented by the model and demonstrates considerable skill in reproducing the extreme rainfall regimes. There is however a tendency to overestimate rainfall amounts along the Guinean coast, particularly around mountainous areas, and to underestimate it over the Soudano-Sahel. The increased rainfall along the coast is due to an enhanced low-level convergence of the moist southwesterly winds along the coast leading to a reduction of the moisture content in the atmosphere. The decrease over the Soudano-Sahel could be associated with the weakening of the land–sea temperature gradient and hence the decrease in the low level southerly flows. The spatial and temporal variations in temperature are well captured by the model except for slightly cold bias over the coastal region due to an overestimation of precipitation.     

Artificial neural network approach for estimation of surface specific humidity and air temperature using multifrequency scanning microwave radiometer

Microwave sensor MSMR (Multifrequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer) data onboard Oceansat-1 was used for retrieval of monthly averages of near surface specific humidity (Q _a) and air temperature (T _a) by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The MSMR measures the microwave radiances in 8 channels at frequencies of 6.6, 10.7, 18 and 21 GHz for both vertical and horizontal polarizations. The artificial neural networks (ANN) technique is employed to find the transfer function relating the input MSMR observed brightness temperatures and output (Q _a andT _a) parameters. Input data consist of nearly 28 months (June 1999 – September 2001) of monthly averages of MSMR observed brightness temperature and surface marine observations ofQ _a andT _a from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). The performance of the algorithm is assessed with independent surface marine observations. The results indicate that the combination of MSMR observed brightness temperatures as input parameters provides reasonable estimates of monthly averaged surface parameters. The global root mean square (rms) differences are 1.0‡C and 1.1 g kg⁻¹ for air temperature and surface specific humidity respectively.     

Characteristics of aerosol optical depth and Ångström parameters over Mohal in the Kullu Valley of Northwest Himalayan Region,India

The measurements using a ground based multi wavelength radiometer (MWR) at Mohal (31°54′N, 77°07′E, 1154 m AMSL) in the Kullu valley of Northwestern Himalayan region show that the spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and turbidity coefficient, β, are high in summer, moderate in monsoon season, low in winter and lowest in autumn, while wavelength exponent, α, has an opposite trend. Average annual value of AOD at 500 nm is 0.24±0.01, 0.43±0.02, and 0.28±0.02; that of β is 0.14±0.01, 0.22±0.02, and 0.17±0.03; and that of α is 1.06±0.09, 1.16±0.10, and 0.86±0.13, respectively, for clear, hazy and partially clear sky days. The considerably greater value of β on hazy days indicates more coarse particles in mountain haze. The fractional asymmetry factor (AF) is more negative in summer and autumn months. The AOD and β have significantly positive correlation with temperature and wind speed, suggesting high AODs and turbidity on hot and windy days.     

Diamond formation in the system MgO–SiO2–H2O–C at 7.5 GPa and 1,600°C

Diamond crystallization has been studied in the SiO₂–H₂O–С, Mg₂SiO₄–H₂O–С and H₂O–С subsystems at 7.5 GPa and 1,600°C. We found that dissolution of initial graphite is followed by spontaneous nucleation of diamond and growth of diamond on seed crystals. In 15-h runs, the degree of graphite to diamond transformation [α = M_Dm/(M_Dm + M_Gr)100, where M_Dm is mass of obtained diamond and M_Gr mass of residual graphite] reached 100% in H₂O-rich fluids but was only 35–50% in water-saturated silicate melts. In 40-h runs, an abrupt decrease of α has been established at the weight ratio H₂O/(H₂O + SiO₂) ≤ 0.16 or H₂O/(H₂O + Mg₂SiO₄) ≤ 0.15. Our results indicate that α is a function of the concentration of water, which controls both the kinetics of diamond nucleation and the intensity of carbon mass transfer in the systems. The most favorable conditions for diamond crystallization in the mantle silicate environment at reliable PT-parameters occur in the fluid phase with low concentration of silicates solute. In H₂O-poor silicate melts diamond formation is questionable.     

Linear homotopy solution of nonlinear systems of equations in geodesy

A fundamental task in geodesy is solving systems of equations. Many geodetic problems are represented as systems of multivariate polynomials. A common problem in solving such systems is improper initial starting values for iterative methods, leading to convergence to solutions with no physical meaning, or to convergence that requires global methods. Though symbolic methods such as Groebner bases or resultants have been shown to be very efficient, i.e., providing solutions for determined systems such as 3-point problem of 3D affine transformation, the symbolic algebra can be very time consuming, even with special Computer Algebra Systems (CAS). This study proposes the Linear Homotopy method that can be implemented easily in high-level computer languages like C++ and Fortran that are faster than CAS by at least two orders of magnitude. Using Mathematica, the power of Homotopy is demonstrated in solving three nonlinear geodetic problems: resection, GPS positioning, and affine transformation. The method enlarging the domain of convergence is found to be efficient, less sensitive to rounding of numbers, and has lower complexity compared to other local methods like Newton–Raphson.     

The Effect of Relative Sunspot Numbers,Solar Flare Numbers and Variable Component of 10.7 cm Solar Flux on The Seasonal Variation of 6300 Å Line Intensity at Calcutta

The paper presents the seasonal variation of 6300 Å line intensity at Calcutta with relative sunspot number, solar flare number and variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux. A study has been made and important results have been obtained which are as follows. (i) Intensity of 6300 Å line shows periodic variation with relative sunspot number, solar flare number and variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux during the period 1984–1986 which is the secondary peak of the descending phase of 21st solar cycle. (ii) 6300 Å line intensity at Cachoeira Paulista station, taken by Sahai et al. (1988), also shows periodic variation with solar parameters during the period 1978–1980 which is the peak phase of the solar cycle. (iii) A possible explanation of such a type of variation is also presented.     

Comparison of Kalpana-1 atmospheric motion vectors with other observations

The operational derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) using infrared (10.5–12.5 μm) and water vapor (6.3–7.1 μm) channels of successive geostationary satellite images started in the 1980s. Subsequently, AMVs have become an important component for operational numerical weather prediction throughout the globe for the last decade or so. In India, at the Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, the operational derivation of AMVs (infrared winds and water vapor winds) from the Indian geostationary satellite Kalpana-1 has been initiated a few years back. Recently, an L-band radar lower atmosphere wind profiler (LAWP) has been installed at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki located at (13.58°N, 79.28°E) for continuous high-resolution wind measurements in the lower atmosphere. In this study, a comparison of Kalpana-1 AMVs with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde has been carried out for a period of one and a half years. The performances of Kalpana-1 AMVs are also assessed by a separate comparison of Meteosat-7 AMVs, derived at the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde. Both sets of comparison show that AMVs from Kalpana-1 and Meteosat-7 are comparable over the Indian Ocean region.     

Breccia-cored columnar rosettes in a rubbly pahoehoe lava flow,Elephanta Island,Deccan Traps,and a model for their origin

Rubbly pahoehoe lava flows are abundant in many continental flood basalts including the Deccan Traps. However, structures with radial joint columns surrounding cores of flow-top breccia (FTB), reported from some Deccan rubbly pahoehoe flows, are yet unknown from other basaltic provinces. A previous study of these Deccan “breccia-cored columnar rosettes” ruled out explanations such as volcanic vents and lava tubes, and showed that the radial joint columns had grown outwards from cold FTB inclusions incorporated into the hot molten interiors. How the highly vesicular (thus low-density) FTB blocks might have sunk into the flow interiors has remained a puzzle. Here we describe a new example of a Deccan rubbly pahoehoe flow with FTB-cored rosettes, from Elephanta Island in the Mumbai harbor. Noting that (1) thick rubbly pahoehoe flows probably form by rapid inflation (involving many lava injections into a largely molten advancing flow), and (2) such flows are transitional to ‘a’ā flows (which continuously shed their top clinker in front of them as they advance), we propose a model for the FTB-cored rosettes. We suggest that the Deccan flows under study were shedding some of their FTB in front of them as they advanced and, with high-eruption rate lava injection and inflation, frontal breakouts would incorporate this FTB rubble, with thickening of the flow carrying the rubble into the flow interior. This implies that, far from sinking into the molten interior, the FTB blocks may have been rising, until lava supply and inflation stopped, the flow began solidifying, and joint columns developed outward from each cold FTB inclusion as already inferred, forming the FTB-cored rosettes. Those rubbly pahoehoe flows which began recycling most of their FTB became the ‘a’ā flows of the Deccan.     

Multidimensional six-stage model for flood emergency response in schools: a case study of Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Children spend more than two-thirds of their total daytime in schools and becoming more persuasive in shielding them from potential hazards. Schools have a responsibility to...     

An investigation on the dynamic and scale interactive processes for estimating the predictability of cloudburst over elevated orography

The cloudburst is defined as a heavy downpour at a very high rainfall rate over small spatio-temporal scale. The Indian states of Uttarakhand (30°15′N; 79°15′E) and Himachal Pradesh (32°29′N; 75°10′E) are prone to cloudburst due to its geographical setup. The large-scale monsoon flow along with elevated orography makes cloudburst phenomena frequent a well as severe over the regions. However, cloudburst and the heavy rainfall events occasionally, become difficult to distinguish. The present study attempts to identify the processes associated with cloudburst over elevated orography and compare it with one of the most debated event of 2013 which was reported as heavy rainfall but, not a cloudburst by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The temporal variations of rainfall and cloud-top pressure (CTP) are considered to identify the genesis of the event. The vertical developments of the system along with large-scale circulation pattern are estimated in the present study. The result of the study reveals that the mid-tropospheric dry entrainment, low-level temperature inversion and cloud height clearly distinguish the “cloudburst” and “heavy rainfall” events and confirms that the system of 2013 was indeed a heavy rainfall event and not a cloudburst.