Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

Microtextural investigation (SEM and TEM study) of phyllosilicates in a major thrust fault zone (Monte Perdido, southern Pyrenees): impact on fault reactivation

Thrusting fault zone in foreland basins are characterized by highly foliated zones generally enriched in phyllosilicates which can play a major role on the mechanical behaviour of the fault. In this context, investigations of synkinematic clay minerals permit to determine the origin of the fluid from which they precipitated as well as the mechanisms of deformation. Our study is focused on clay mineral assemblages (illite and chlorite) in a major thrust fault located in the Monte Perdido massif (southern Pyrenees), a shallow thrust that affects upper cretaceous-paleocene platform carbonates and lower Eocene marls and turbidites. It implied 3?km of displacement of the Monte Perdido thrust unit with respect to the underlying Gavarnie unit. In this area the cleavage development by pressure-solution is linked to the Monte Perdido and Gavarnie thrust activity. The core zone of the fault, about 6?m thick, consists of an interval of intensely deformed clay-bearing rocks bounded by major shear surfaces. The deformed sediment is markedly darker than the protolith. Calcite-quartz shear veins along the shear planes are abundant. Detailed SEM and TEM observations of highly deformed fault zone samples indicate that clay mineral enrichment in the core zone of the fault is not only related to passive increase by pressure-solution mechanism but that dissolution?Crecrystallization of phyllosilicates occurs during deformation. A mineral segregation is observed in the highly deformed zone. Newly formed 2M ₁ muscovite is present along the cleavage whereas IIb chlorite crystals fill S_V2 shear veins suggesting syntectonic growth of phyllosilicates in the presence of fluids in low-grade metamorphic conditions. These mineralogical reactions act as weakening processes and would favour Monte Perdido fault creeping.     

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.     

On the return period of the 2003 heat wave

Extremal events are difficult to model since it is difficult to characterize formally those events. The 2003 heat wave in Europe was not characterized by very high temperatures, but mainly the fact that night temperature were no cool enough for a long period of time. Hence, simulation of several models (either with heavy tailed noise or long range dependence) yield different estimations for the return period of that extremal event.     

Instability structures, synsedimentary faults and turbidites, witnesses of a Liassic seismotectonic activity in the Dauphiné Zone (French Alps): A case example in the Lower Pliensbachian at Saint-Michel-en-Beaumont

Instability structures, synsedimentary faults and turbidites have been studied in the Lower Pliensbachian succession of Saint-Michel-en-Beaumont, belonging to the Taillefer block, an ancient half-graben emplaced during the Liassic Tethyan rifting. Geometrical and mechanical analyses demonstrate that the instability structures occurred thanks to movements along spineless synsedimentary normal faults, when the turbiditic and limestone layers were already case-hardened and partly fractured by tension gashes even when the mudstones were still unlithified. Both the tension gashes and the synsedimentary faults are homogeneous in strike with the major regional faults and are in good agreement with the regional direction of extension for this period. The characters of the turbiditic beds, with erosive base, graded bedding, and incomplete Bouma sequence, are in favour of a seismic origin. Instability structures, spineless synsedimentary faults and turbiditic inflows are thus considered as seismites and interpreted as the result of high seismicity periods including some events with M > 5 in the general extensive ambiance of the Liassic Tethyan rifting. The analysis of the geometrical relationships between all these sedimentary features allows to distinguish the successive stage of occurrence of an instability structure, from the sedimentation of alternating marls and limestones, and sudden turbiditic inflows, then early case-hardening of the turbidites, until the important seismotectonic event generating the spineless normal faults, themselves triggering the fall of indurated blocks and locally the forming of breccias. The Ornon Fault, which constitutes the border of the Taillefer block, 15 km eastward, played a major role during the Liassic sedimentation and may represent the major seismic fault related to the seismites occurrence in the Beaumont basin.     

Microtectonic and geochemical characterization of thrusting in a foreland basin: Example of the South-Pyrenean orogenic wedge (Spain)

In orogenic systems, thrust faults play a major role in stacking different tectonic units and may act as conduits for the expulsion of large amounts of fluid of different origins (metamorphic, diagenetic, meteoric). This study focuses on the Monte Perdido thrust unit emplaced in the Paleogene Jaca thrust-sheet-top basin, in the SW-central Pyrenees. We aim to decipher the mechanisms and P-T conditions of deformation in fault zones and characterize the related fluid involvement, through combined microstructural, geochemical and microthermometry analyses. Two thrust faults cutting platform limestones, marls and siliciclastic turbidites of the lower part of the basin-fill (Paleocene–lower Eocene) have been studied. The fault zones are characterized by metre-thick shear zones with highly deformed, foliated clay-rich sediments. Foliation is underlined by preferentially oriented phyllosilicates. Several generations of shear and extension calcite, quartz and chlorite-bearing veins attest to fluid-rock interactions during a multi-stage deformation. Microstructural observations and stable isotope analyses on calcite from veins and host sediments suggest that deformation was aseismic and dominated by diffusive mass transfer from pressure solution sites along cleavage and stylolites to the precipitation sites in veins, with mineralizing fluids in equilibrium with the host sediments. Our results suggest an essentially closed hydrologic system, and imply the absence of significant fluid flow along the studied fault zones. Microthermometric study on fluid inclusions present in calcite and quartz veins, and calcite-quartz oxygen isotopic fractionation determined for the first generation shear veins, allow a geothermal gradient of 34 °C/km to be estimated. Analytical results demonstrate an evolution of the fault zones in three stages. The first stage was related to the emplacement of the Monte Perdido thrust unit during the middle Eocene at a temperature of ～208 °C and a burial depth of ～5.7 km. The second stage corresponds to a fault reactivation at a temperature of ～240 °C and a burial depth of ～6.5 km. The latter deformation may have been related to folding of the Monte Perdido thrust unit during the emplacement of the underlying Gavarnie thrust unit during the late Eocene–early Oligocene, with deeper burial resulting from aggradation of the thrust-sheet-top basin-fill. The last event corresponds to the formation of a dilatant vein system likely related to the exhumation of the massif.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Incremental growth of normal faults: Insights from a laser-equipped analog experiment

We conducted a laser-equipped analog experiment aimed at quasi-continuously monitoring the growth of a dense population of normal faults in homogeneous conditions. To further understand the way geological faults progressively gain in slip and length as they accumulate more strain, we measured with great precision the incremental slip and length changes that the analog faults sustain as they grow. These measurements show that the analog faults share common features with the natural ones. In particular, during their growth, the faults develop and maintain cumulative slip profiles that are generally triangular and asymmetric. The growth takes place through two distinct phases: an initial, short period of rapid lateral lengthening, followed by a longer phase of slip accumulation with little or no lengthening. The incremental slip is found to be highly variable in both space (along the faults) and time, resulting in variable slip rates. In particular, ‘short- and long-term’ slip rates are markedly different. We also find that slip measurements at local points on fault traces do not contain clear information on the slip increment repeat mode. Finally, while the fault growth process is highly heterogeneous when considered at the scale of a few slip events, it appears homogeneous and self-similar at longer time scales which integrate many slip increments. This is likely to be the result of a feedback between stress heterogeneities and slip development. The long-term scale homogeneity also implies that the long-term faulting process is primarily insensitive to the short-term heterogeneities that are rapidly smoothed or redistributed. We propose a new conceptual scenario of fault growth that integrates the above observations and we suggest that faults grow in a bimodal way as a result of a self-driven and self-sustaining process.     

Improving modelling and inversion in refraction seismics with a first-order Eikonal solver

A first-order Eikonal solver is applied to modelling and inversion in refraction seismics. The method calculates the traveltime of the fastest wave at any point of a regular grid, including head waves as used in refraction. The efficiency, robustness and flexibility of the method give a very powerful modelling tool to find both traveltimes and raypaths. Comparisons with finite-difference data show the validity of the results. Any arbitrarily complex model can be studied, including the exact topography of the surface, thus avoiding static corrections. Later arrivals are also obtained by applying high-slowness masks over the high-velocity zones. Such an efficient modelling tool may be used interactively to invert for the model, but a better method is to apply the refractor-imaging principle of Hagedoorn to obtain the refractors from the picked traveltime curves. The application of this principle has already been tried successfully by previous authors, but they used a less well-adapted Eikonal solver. Some of their traveltimes were not correct in the presence of strong velocity variations, and the refractor-imaging principle was restricted to receiver lines along a plane surface. With the first-order Eikonal solver chosen, any topography of the receiving surface can be considered and there is no restriction on the velocity contrast. Based on synthetic examples, the Hagedoorn principle appears to be robust even in the case of first arrivals associated with waves diving under the refractor. The velocities below the refractor can also be easily estimated, parallel to the imaging process. In this way, the model can be built up successively layer by layer, the refractor-imaging and velocity-mapping processes being performed for each identified refractor at a time. The inverted model could then be used in tomographic inversions because the calculated traveltimes are very close to the observed traveltimes and the raypaths are available.