Forest cover change assessment in conflict-affected areas of northwest Pakistan: the case of swat and shangla districts

This study examines the spatial and temporal forest cover changes in Swat and Shangla districts to understand the deforestation pattern in context of the recent security conflict in these districts. We used multi-resolution satellite images to assess the long term deforestation from 2001 to 2009 and also to identify episodic forest cutting areas appeared during the conflict period of Oct. 2007 - Oct. 2008. There are only 58 ha of deforestation identified during the conflict period while 1268 ha of gross annual deforestation were assessed during last eight years. Most of the deforestation patches persist around the administrative boundaries at sub-district levels (tehsils) which can be attributed to ambiguity in unclear jurisdiction between the forest official. The results highlight that the forest cutting appeared in Swat and Shangla during the conflict period is not as significant when compared with the long term deforestation pattern in the area. On the one side the results of the study are supportive to the picture that emerges from international studies which report high rate of deforestation in the country and on the other side it negates any relation between the security situation and the increasing deforestation in the north western Pakistan. The study concludes that deforestation assessments require verification by independent sources of data, such as satellite imagery to improve our understanding of deforestation processes.     

巴基斯坦达尔巴丁(Dalbandin）地震前观测到的电离层foF2异常变化

电离层foF2变化对地震反应非常敏感,与地震有关的电离层扰动变化结果似乎非常有望用于地震短期预测。格林威治时间2011年1月18日20:23分,一次7.2级的大地震发生在巴基斯坦的达尔巴丁(28.73oＮ, 63.92oＥ）。本文研究中,我们必须利用架设在巴基斯坦的伊斯兰堡（33.78oN, 73.06oE）、玛尔坦（32.26oN,71.51oE）和卡拉奇（24.89oN,67.02oE）三个垂直探测台站获得的白天（08:00 a.m. - 05:00 p.m.）小时值数据找出地震前的foF2异常变化特征。结果显示,在达尔巴丁地震前几天,foF2出现了显著变化;并且距离震中最近的台站观测到的频率与幅度异常变化大于较远的位于孕震区边缘的台站。尽管地震异常特征显著,但增加其它电离层参数可以提高foF2异常的高置信度水平。     

Simulation of streamflow with statistically downscaled daily rainfall using a hybrid of wavelet and GAMLSS models

ABSTRACT

A rainfall–streamflow model is proposed, in which a downscaled rainfall series and its wavelet-based decomposed sub-series at optimum lags were used as covariates in GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is applied in climate change impact assessment using CMIP5 general climate model to simulate daily streamflow in three sub-catchments of the Onkaparinga catchment, South Australia. The Spearman correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between the observed and median simulated streamflow values were high and comparable for both the calibration and validation periods for each sub-catchment. We show that the GAMLSS has the capability to capture non-stationarity in the rainfall–streamflow process. It was also observed that the use of wavelet-based decomposed rainfall sub-series with optimum lags as covariates in the GAMLSS model captures the underlying physics of the rainfall–streamflow process. The development and application of an empirical rainfall–streamflow model that can be used to assess the impact of catchment-scale climate change on streamflow is demonstrated.     

Groundwater recharge in arid areas induced by tropical cyclones: lessons learned from Gonu 2007 in Sultanate of Oman

Younger groundwater found in some Omani aquifers is a result of recent recharge from cyclonic and storm events [Weyhenmeyer et al. (Science 287:842–845, 2000); Young et al. (J Appl Geophys 57:43–61, 2004)]. The analysis of the meteorological data in Oman indicates an anomalous rainfall on a decadal interval whereas cyclones frequency is expected to increase due to global climatic changes. The cyclone Gonu has severely struck the eastern Omani coasts in 2007 resulting in devastating floods. Huge volume of water (3,672 mm³) spread over the coastal plain calling for an assessment of potential groundwater recharge subsequent to this event. The present study evaluates groundwater recharge with respect to Gonu 2007 to assess the potential of recharge induced by such cyclones in the arid zones. The hydrographs of several piezometers sited along the coastal plain in Muscat Province have been studied and variation in water table rise has been analyzed. Significant water table rise is indicated for areas with geological and structural settings favoring rapid infiltration of water yielding considerable groundwater mound, whereas piezometers located in less favorable zones show minimum rise of water table. However, soon after the floods the aquifer hydrodynamics has readjusted to attain equilibrium and the groundwater mound dissipated. The cumulative rise of the water table on an areal extent does not exceed a few centimeters indicating lesser volume of recharge. Comparatively, recharge from frequent precipitation along favorable zones produces more significant recharge compared with cyclonic events where surface water residence time is shorter to allow for efficient infiltration.     

Groundwater flow modelling of Hindon-Yamuna interfluve region, Western Uttar Pradesh

The study area Hindon -Yamuna interfluve region is underlain by a thick pile of unconsolidated Quaternary alluvial deposits and host multiple aquifer system. Excessive pumping in the last few decades, mainly for irrigation, has resulted in a significant depletion of the aquifer. Therefore, proper groundwater management of Hindon-Yamuna interfluve region is necessary. For effective groundwater management of a basin it is essential that careful zone budget study should be carried out. Keeping this in view, groundwater flow modelling was attempted to simulate the behavior of flow system and evaluate zone budget. Visual MODFLOW, pro 4.1 is used in this study to simulate groundwater flow. The model simulates groundwater flow over an area of about 1345 km² with a uniform grid size of 1000 m by 1000 m and contains three layers, 58 rows and 37 columns. The horizontal flows, seepage losses from unlined canals, recharge from rainfall and irrigation return flows were applied using different boundary packages available in Visual MODFLOW, pro 4.1. The river — aquifer interaction was simulated using the river boundary package. Simulated pumping rates of 500 m³/day, 1000 m³/day and 1500 m³/day were used in the pumping well package.The zone budget for the steady state condition of study area indicated that the total annual direct recharge is 416.10 MCM and the total annual groundwater draft through pumping is of the order of 416.63 MCM. Two scenarios were considered to predict aquifer system response under different conditions. Sensitivity analysis on model parameters was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the impact of varying model inputs. Based on the results obtained from the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the model is more sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameter. Present study deals with importance of groundwater modelling for planning, design, implementation and management of groundwater resources.     

Simple and multiple regression models for relationship between electrical resistivity and various soil properties for soil characterization

Precise determination of engineering properties of soil is essential for proper design and successful construction of any structure. The conventional methods for determination of engineering properties are invasive, costly and time-consuming. Electrical resistivity survey is an attractive tool for delineate subsurface properties without soil disturbance. Reliable correlations between electrical resistivity and other soil properties will enable us to characterize the subsurface soil without borehole sampling. This paper presents the correlations of electrical resistivity with various properties of soil. Soil investigations, field electrical resistivity survey and laboratory electrical resistivity measurements were conducted. The results from electrical resistivity tests (field and laboratory) and laboratory tests were analyzed together to understand the interrelation between electrical resistivity and various soil properties. The test results were evaluated using simple and multiple regression analysis. From the data analysis, significant quantitative and qualitative correlations have been obtained between resistivity and moisture content, friction angle and plasticity index. Weaker correlations have been observed for cohesion, unit weight of soil and effective size (D ₁₀).     

A Parametric Study on Stability of Open Excavations in Alluvial Soils of Lahore District, Pakistan

Rapid urbanization and expansion of metropolitans in the developing world is pressing the need of tall structures with multiple basements. In several such projects, open land is available around excavation site and unsupported deep excavations by maintaining appropriate side slopes offer economical solution. In this research, subsoil stratigraphy of Lahore district was established to be comprising of a top clay stratum 1.5–8 m thick, followed by a sand layer. Considering subsoil data from several geotechnical investigation reports, the effect of four key parameters viz., cohesion of clay layer, friction angle of sand layer, thickness of clay layer at the top and slope inclination of underlying sand layer on safety factor of open excavations was studied. Six hundred twenty-five slope stability analyses were conducted by considering different geometries and soil properties. Based on the results of these analyses, a regression model was suggested to estimate safety factor of open excavations in similar stratigraphy which would be useful in feasibility studies and preliminary design of deep excavations. It was established that the clay layer cohesion was the most dominant contributor to safety factor.     

Geochemical modeling,fate distribution,and risk exposure of potentially toxic metals in the surface sediment of the Shyok suture zone,northern Pakistan

The objective of the current study was to assess the contamination of potentially toxic metals (PTMs) in weathered surface sediment, along stream tributaries, and surrounding area of the river Chitral, Shyok suture zone district Chitral, Pakistan. To understand the geochemical features of 113 sediment, samples were collected from the Mirkhani and Drosh area. Then, different statistical tools including the geo-accumulation index (Igeo), cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), and ecological risk assessment (ERA) were used to unravel the origin, intensity, and exposure level of PTMs to control risk and restore the ecosystem within the study area. The results for the PTMs namely nickle (Ni), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and cobalt (Co) in Mirkhani and Drosh were in the following ranges: 10–150, 15–210, 15–250, 0.08–1.00, 10–70, 76–240 and 14–51; and 13–240, 17–210, 15–150, 0.08–0.60, 7–140, 47–150 and 13–36 mg/kg, respectively. In consequence, the potential ecological risk caused by Pb, Ni, Cu, Co, Cr, and Zn is reflected by the percentages of samples with an ecological risk index (ERI) greater than one which were 100%, 91%, 100%, 100%, 92%, and 100%, respectively. However, the overall mean decreasing order of ecological risk of PTMs in the district Chitral was Pb > Ni > Cu > Co > Cr > Zn > Cd. Moreover, the PCA yielded 78% variability which indicated that mineral prospects play an important role in the contamination of sediment. Furthermore, the mineral phases of Pb and Zn suggested supersaturation, while that for Cd revealed unsaturation. The results of Igeo, ERI, and CA indicated contamination of PTMs in the study area. The ERI value of Pb, Ni, Cu, Co, Cr, and Zn was higher than 1 suggesting an ecological risk in the study area. Moreover, the current study showed the dominance of geogenic contamination with major contributions from ultramafic rock and known mineral prospects. Therefore, contaminated sediment of the Shyok suture zone is extremely detrimental to the aquatic ecosystem of the study area.     

Development of a New Method of Extraction of Interstitial Water from Low‐Porosity Consolidated Sediments Recovered During Super‐Deep Drilling Projects

During the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 338, several methods were tested for the extraction of interstitial water in consolidated, low‐porosity deep‐sea sediments from Site C0002 in the Kumano Basin. On the basis of those tests, we propose a modified ground rock interstitial normative determination (GRIND) method of extraction of interstitial water. In separate runs of the new method, sediment samples were ground in a ball mill with either ultrapure water or a solution of HNO₃. The interstitial water was then extracted with a conventional squeezer. Sufficient solution was extracted by this method to analyse most major and a few minor components of interstitial water that were comparable to those previously reported for samples extracted by the conventional squeezing method. The new method requires much smaller amounts of sediment than that of the conventional method and will be useful for analysis of samples recovered during super‐deep drilling programmes.