Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India

The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R ² values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R ² values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91–3.15 °C, 0.93–2.63 °C, and 6–12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69–1.92 °C, 0.56–1.63 °C, and 8–14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied.     

An ecological economics framework for assessing environmental flows: the case of inter-basin water transfers in Lesotho

This paper used the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) that transfers water from the Orange River Basin in Lesotho to the Vaal River Basin in South Africa as a case study to show how environmental sustainability aspects can be integrated into economic development planning. Using the Ecological Social Accounting Matrix (ESAM) for Lesotho that integrates ecological implications of the LHWP with economic benefits of the project, the paper analysed the impact of lost ecological services downstream the LHWP dams in Lesotho on the well-being of households directly affected by the project (riparians) and the general economy of the country. The results revealed that despite significant economic benefits, the project has unintended impacts on ecological resources and services with resultant deleterious well-being implications for riparians. The results from the ESAM analysis indicated that not only the income of riparians is likely to suffer, but also that of other households and social groups, as well as the general economy of Lesotho. While results of the ESAM analysis did not indicate large income impacts on the economy at large, they were significant for riparians. The importance of integrating ecological consequences into impact assessment of IBWT before such transfers can be implemented to ensure sustainable development and considering economy-wide impacts associated with IBWT was proven necessary for a holistic impact assessment of IBWT.     

Elevation Dependency of Climatic Variables Trends in the Last Decades in the Snow-Fed and Glacier-Fed Vakhsh River Basin,Central Asia

Water Resources - Given the various altitudes of the Vakhsh River Basin (VRB) in Central Asia, global warming has significant implications for water resources and environmental changes as most snow...     

Absorption of metals on sedimentary and peat humic acids

Humic acids isolated from marine sediments were found to be effective in absorption of various metal ions through chelation, cation exchange and surface adsorption. The quantities of metal ions complexed varied from 40 to 205 mg/g of organic matter. In the presence of equal concentrations of Co, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn in the reaction media, humic acid and peatmoss, a rich source of humic compounds, showed preferential absorption for Cu. Copper constituted more than 50% of the metal ions complexed by organic matter. As compared with the other metal ions, its bonding strength was very firm because it could not be displaced by ferric ion or cation exchange reagents.Peatmoss, a rich source of humic acid, was found to absorb significant quantities of various metal ions. Under laboratory conditions each kg of peat absorbed about 1500 mg of various metal ions from solutions containing equal concentrations of Co, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn. However, in the field trials with sea water, absorption of metals was limited to Zn (28.7 mg/kg), Cu (3.66 mg/kg) and Fe (2.0 mg/kg). Under-saturation of sea water for transition metals and super-saturation for alkali and alkaline earth metals appears to be a bottleneck in the effective utilization of peat as a means of recovery of metals from sea water.     

A Generic Closed-Loop Contaminant Treatment System Package for MODFLOW 6

We present a contaminant treatment system (CTS) package for MODFLOW 6 that facilitates the simulation of pump-and-treat systems for groundwater remediation. Using the “nonintrusive” MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API) capability, the CTS package can balance flows between extraction and injection wells within the outer flow solution loop and applies blended concentration/mass treatment efficiency within the outer transport solution loop. The former can be important when the requested extraction rate cannot be satisfied by the current simulated groundwater system conditions, while the latter can be important for simulating incomplete/imperfect treatment schemes. Furthermore, the CTS package allows users to temporally vary all aspects of a simulated CTS system, including the configuration and location of injection and extraction wells, and the CTS efficiency. This flexibility combined with the API-based implementation provide a generic and general CTS package that can be applied across the wide range of MODFLOW 6 simulation options and that evolves in step with MODFLOW 6 code modifications and advancements without needing to update the CTS package itself.     

Stratigraphic correlation and paleoenvironmental analysis of the hydrocarbon-bearing Early Miocene Euphrates and Jeribe formations in the Zagros folded-thrust belt

The Lower Miocene Euphrates and Jeribe formations are considered as the main targets of the Tertiary petroleum system in the western part of the Zagros Basin. The formations consist of carbonates with some evaporate intercalations of the Dhiban Formation. This study utilized data from a field investigation including newly described outcrop sections and newly discovered productive oil fields within the Kirkuk embayment zone of the Zagros fold and thrust belt such as Sarqala and Kurdamir wells. This work is the first to show a stratigraphic correlation and paleoenvironmental interpretation by investigating both well data and new outcrop data. Three depositional environments were identified, (1) an inner and outer ramp belts environment, (2) shoal environment, and (3) restricted lagoon environment. Within these 3 environments, 12 microfacies were identified, based on the distribution of fauna mainly benthonic foraminifera, rock textures, and sedimentary structures. The inferred shallow water depths and variable salinities in both the Euphrates Formation and Jeribe Formation carbonates are consistent with deposition on the inner ramp (restricted lagoon and shoal) environments. Those found in the Euphrates Formation constrained the depositional environment to the restricted lagoon and shoal environment, while the microfacies in the Jeribe Formation provided evidence for an inner ramp and middle to outer ramp belt environments. This study represents the first detailed research that focuses on the stratigraphic correlation and changes in carbonate facies with the main aim to provide a wider understanding of stratigraphy of these carbonate reservoirs throughout the northern part of Iraq.     

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on soil erosion susceptibility of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalayas

Soil erosion, a serious environmental problem, is a global challenge. Once a portion of a fertile soil is lost, it is very difficult to replace it, and this leads to decrease in crop production, damage to drainage networks, and siltation of dams and reservoirs. Human practices like intensive agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation have intensified the rate of soil erosion all over the world. The Jhelum basin which forms the north-western part of the complex mountain system Himalayas is not only highly vulnerable to natural hazards like earthquakes, landslides, and floods but is also highly susceptible to soil erosion. There is an immediate need to device strategies to reduce adverse impacts of soil erosion and to conserve natural resources like soil, water, and forests by means of proper watershed management programs in the Himalayan region. The present study is carried out for eight upper watersheds of Jhelum basin, an area which are facing serious issues like boulder extraction, deforestation, and unplanned urbanization. The present work demonstrates the use of morphometry, land use, and slope coupled with the multicriteria analytical (MCA) framework to estimate the soil erosion susceptibility of these watersheds using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System techniques. The present study revealed that out of eight upper watersheds, Arapal, Lidder, and Bringi fall in high priority and need immediate attention and measures to reduce soil erosion in the area. Sandran, Rembiara, and Romshii fall in medium priority. Kuthar and Vishav fall in the low-priority category and are least susceptible to soil erosion.     

Why was the 2008 Indian Ocean Dipole a short-lived event?

In this paper, the role of equatorial oceanic waves in affecting the evolution of the 2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event was evaluated using available observations and output from a quasi-analytical linear wave model. It was found that the 2008 positive IOD was an early matured and abruptly terminated event: developed in April, matured in July, and diminished in September. During the development and the maturation of the 2008 positive IOD event, the wind-forced Rossby waves played a dominant role in generating zonal current anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while a complex interplay between the wind-forced upwelling Kelvin waves and the eastern-boundary-generated Rossby waves accounted for most of the variability in the eastern basin. The latter induced eastward zonal current anomalies near the eastern boundary during the peak phase of the event. The 2008 positive IOD event was abruptly terminated in mid-July. We found that there were strong eastward zonal currents in mid-July, though the surface wind anomalies in the eastern basin continued to be westward (upwelling favorable). Our analysis shows that these eastward zonal currents mainly resulted from the easternboundary-generated upwelling Rossby waves, although the contribution from the wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves was not negligible. These eastward zonal currents terminated the zonal heat advection and provided a favorable condition for surface heat flux to warm the eastern basin.     

Behavior of Weak Soils Reinforced with End-Bearing Soil-Cement Columns Formed by the Deep Mixing Method

This article reports on a series of small-scale, plane strain, 1 g physical model tests designed to investigate the bearing capacity and failure mechanics of end-bearing soil-cement columns formed via Deep Mixing (DM). Pre-formed soil-cement columns, 24 mm in diameter and 200 mm in length, were installed in a soft clay bed using a replacement method; the columns represented improvement area ratios, a_p, of 17%, 26%, and 35% beneath a rigid foundation of width 100 mm. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was implemented in conjunction with close-range photogrammetry in order to track soil displacement during loading, from which the failure mechanisms were derived. Bearing capacity performance was verified using Ultimate Limit State numerical analysis, with the results comparing favorably to the analytical static and kinematic solutions proposed by previous researchers. A new equation for bearing capacity was derived from this numerical analysis based on the improvement area ratio and cohesion ratio of the soil column and ground model.     

Managing Bluefin Tuna in the Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Bluefin Tuna is an important but not well managed fishery in the Mediterranean Sea. In this paper, management system is evaluated with information on stock status, resource rent, and total employment. The non-restrictive implementation of International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) policies is found to be the institutional reason for its management failure, while the common-property and shared stock nature of this fishery is the fundamental reason. To address these major issues, policy schemes are proposed to help sustainably manage this valuable resource in the Mediterranean Sea.