Modelling spatial,altitudinal and temporal variability of annual precipitation in mountainous regions: The case of the Middle Zagros,Iran

Relationships between precipitation and elevation are difficult to model for mountainous regions, due to complexities in topography and moisture sources. Attempts to model these relationships need to be tested against long-term location specific meteorological data, and hence require a case-study approach. This study uses artificial neural networks to model these relationships for the Middle of Zagros region, in semi-arid western Iran. Precipitation data for the region were collected for 1995–2007. Annual precipitation was designated as the target variable for the network, which additionally included variables significantly related to precipitation for the region, including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, distance from the ridge, and relative distance from moisture. Long-term changes in annual precipitation for the region are investigated for 1961–2010. The artificial neural network (ANN) model explains 76% of the spatial variability of precipitation in the Middle Zagros. Precipitation predominantly increases with elevation on the windward slope, to a maximum height of 2500 m.asl, and thereafter either remains constant or decreases slowly to the ridge. Precipitation in the region has decreased significantly over the study period, with fluctuations driven by AO, NAO, ENSO and variability in the strength of pressure centers. Spectral analysis reveals significant oscillations of 2–4 and 5 yr periods, which correspond temporally with cycles in macro-scale circulation, ENSO and the Mediterranean Low pressure.     

Erosion potential assessment of watersheds through GIS<Emphasis Type="Bold">-</Emphasis>based hypsometric analysis: a case study of Kurram Tangi Dam

Sediment discharge due to soil and rock erosion within the watersheds is the major cause of siltation in water reservoirs. Siltation in reservoirs reduces the capacity for power production, irrigation water supply, and other domestic purposes. Hypsometric analysis has widely been used to identifying the geomorphic development stages (stabilized, equilibrium, and un-stable) to assess the erosion proneness of watersheds. In this study, watershed of Kurram Tangi Dam and its four sub-watersheds (SWs) were considered to determine their sediment discharge capacity through hypsometric analysis. The boundaries of watershed and sub-watersheds were delineated from Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The hypsometric parameters i.e., hypsometric integral (HI) and curves were generated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The HI values of SW-1 (0.41) and SW-2 (0.36) indicated that these two SWs were relatively more prone to erosion and contributed higher sediment discharge in Dam siltation. The results were validated through sampling the main drainage channel (Kurram River) to determine the sediment concentration at 12 sites during summer, winter, and spring seasons. Comparison of HI and sediment concentration of SWs presented high correlation (R²?=?0.87). The results emphasized the effective watershed management, extensive afforestation, and construction of silt-control structures at appropriate locations in sub-watersheds. This will ultimately maintain the water and power generation capacity as well as extending the life span of the Dam.     

The probability distributions and fractal dimension of sunspot cycles associated with ENSO phenomena

Various methods have been used to secure the certainty of significant relations among the sunspot cycles and some of the terrestrial climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall, and ENSO. This study investigates the behavior of ENSO cycles and mean monthly sunspot cycles. Sunspot cycles range from 1755 to 2016 whereas, ENSO cycles range from 1866 to 2012. In this regard, the appropriateness of distributions is investigated with the help of Kolmogorov-Smirnov D, Anderson-Darling, and chi-square tests. It is found that most of the sunspot cycle follows generalized Pareto distribution whereas, generalized extreme value distribution was found appropriate for ENSO cycles. Probability distribution is used to analyze the behavior of each sunspot cycle and ENSO cycle separately. Probability distribution indicates the tail behavior of each cycle; tail explored correlation cycles. Furthermore, self-similar and self-affine fractal dimension methods are used to compute Hurst exponents to determine the persistency of the available data. Fractal dimension has an ability to study the complexity involved in sunspot and ENSO cycles. The fractal dimension and Hurst exponent describe persistency (smoothness) and complexity of data. Hurst exponent measures long-term behavior of time series, making it more helpful for forecasting. This is the measure of regularity or irregularity (chaos) of the time function in the form of their persistency or anti-persistency, respectively. Hurst exponents are computed using rescaled range analysis method and box counting methods. Both these methods are suitable for long-term forecasting. The results of this study confirm that during the period 1980–2000, ENSO cycles were very active. Simultaneously, ENSO was active for the periods 1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1993, 1994–1995, and 1997–1998; these periods include two strongest periods of the century viz., 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. Sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles both were found to be persistent. Self-similar fractal dimensions exhibited a better persistency and a better correlation as compared to self-affine fractal dimension. This research is a part of a larger research project investigating the correlation of sunspot cycles and ENSO cycles, and the influence of ENSO cycles on variations of the local climatic parameters which in turn depends on solar activity changes.     

Elastic wave velocity monitoring as an emerging technique for rainfall-induced landslide prediction

Landslides are recurring phenomena causing damages to private property, public facilities, and human lives. The need for an affordable instrumentation that can be used to provide an early warning of slope instability to enable the evacuation of vulnerable people, and timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure is self-evident. A new emerging technique that correlates soil moisture changes and deformations in slope surface by means of elastic wave propagation in soil was developed. This approach quantifies elastic wave propagation as wave velocity. To verify its applicability, a series of fixed and varied slope model tests, as well as a large scale model test, were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation, and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity with failure initiation, soil deformation was thus envisaged to have more significant effect on elastic wave velocity than water content. It is proposed that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. Based on these observations, expected operation of the elastic wave velocity monitoring system for landslide prediction in the field application is presented. Consequently, we conclude that the elastic wave velocity monitoring technique has the potential to contribute to landslide prediction.     

Thermodynamic‐based model for coupling temperature‐dependent viscoelastic,viscoplastic, and viscodamage constitutive behavior of asphalt mixtures

Based on the continuum damage mechanics, a general and comprehensive thermodynamic‐based framework for coupling the temperature‐dependent viscoelastic, viscoplastic, and viscodamage behaviors of bituminous materials is presented. This general framework derives systematically Schapery‐type nonlinear viscoelasticity, Perzyna‐type viscoplasticity, and a viscodamage model analogous to the Perzyna‐type viscoplasticity. The resulting constitutive equations are implemented in the well‐known finite element code Abaqus via the user material subroutine UMAT. A systematic procedure for identifying the model parameters is discussed. Finally, the model is validated by comparing the model predictions with a comprehensive set of experimental data on hot mix asphalt that include creep‐recovery, creep, uniaxial constant strain rate, and repeated creep‐recovery tests in both tension and compression over a range of temperatures, stress levels, and strain rates. Comparisons between model predictions and experimental measurements show that the presented constitutive model is capable of predicting the nonlinear behavior of asphaltic mixes under different loading conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Municipal Solid Waste Management in Moradabad City,India

The paper tries to estimate the rate of waste generation per head/per day, to identify suitable sites for waste disposal, to find out optimal route for collection vehicles and to analyze the financial aspects of solid waste management in Moradabad City, India.The study is based on sample of 2,500 households and secondary data. The City generates about 318 tones of solid waste with an average per capita rate of 460 gram per day. Collection and disposal efficiency is nearly 64%. Sensitivity analysis of the present disposal site as per the norms of Central Pollution Control Board indicates that it is moderately suitable. Subsequently two new disposal sites were identified. Redefined routes and related issues were evaluated in financial terms. It is estimated that by adopting the proposed plan, the expenditure on waste management will increase by about 52%, but at the same time about 90% of city area and 95% of city population will be served.     

Modifications in the solubility and precipitation behavior of various metals as a result of their interaction with sedimentary humic acid

The sedimentary humic acid or its acid-hydrolysate, consisting of various amino acids, was found effective in dissolving unusually large quantities of metals (up to 682 mg/g of organic matter) from their insoluble salts. The presence of humic acid in the reaction media which had favorable conditions for the precipitation of metals as carbonates, hydroxides or sulfides, prevented the formation of insoluble metal salts. Infrared analysis suggests that the metals added to various anionic systems and humic acid do not react with the anion. The most likely mechanism of reaction appears to be a complex formation between metals and organic matter which keeps the metal in solution.The enhanced solubility and consequent decrease in precipitation of metals under the influence of humic compounds, as evidenced in these studies should play a leading role in the accumulation of metals in sedimentary deposits.     

Structurally controlled landslides in saprolitic soils in Hong Kong

A number of large slope failures which have occurred in Hong Kong have highlighted the important influence that discontinuities in saprolitic soils can have on slope stability. Conventional stability analyses normally adopted for such soils, which assume failure through intact materials of uniform shear strength, are not appropriate if discontinuity-controlled failures can be postulated. Stress history and present-day weathering effects should also be taken into consideration in the assessment of the long-term stability of slopes in weathered rocks in tropical and subtropical regions. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998     

Environmental controls of methane production in Holocene basins in eastern Canada

Rapid rates of sedimentation from 54 to 134 cm/1000 yr are typical of the Holocene basins in St. Margaret's Bay and the Grand Manan Basin, Nova Scotia. The water column is well oxygenated but, because of the rapid rate of sedimentation, anoxic conditions developed and enhanced the preservation of organic matter and its fermentative degradation; also the concentrations of sulfide increased and soluble sulfates were rapidly depleted. A direct result of this has been the production of methane in amounts exceeding 22,000 ppm. In contrast, nearby cores with rates of sedimentation of less than 20 cm/1000 yr have only 30–40 ppm methane. High rates of sedimentation and the ensuing anaerobic conditions appear to be the principal factors for the genesis and preservation of methane.The δ ¹³C values and the n-alkane distribution show that there is more terrestrial organic matter in the Grand Manan Basin than in St. Margaret's Bay. This could account for the high concentrations of methane in the Grand Manan cores despite the low concentrations of organic carbon.