Ecometrics and the paleoecological implications of Pleistocene faunas from the western coastal plains of the Cape Floristic Region,South Africa

The Pleistocene ungulate communities from the western coastal plains of South Africa's Cape Floristic Region (CFR) are diverse and dominated by grazers, in contrast to the region's Holocene and historical faunas, which are relatively species-poor and dominated by small-bodied browsers and mixed feeders. An expansion of grassy habitats is clearly implied by the Pleistocene faunas, but the presence of ruminant grazers that cannot survive the summer dry season typical of the region today suggests other important paleoecological changes. Here we use dental ecometrics to explore the paleoecological implications of the region's Pleistocene faunas. We show that the dental traits (hypsodonty and occlusal topography) of the ungulates that occurred historically in the CFR track annual and summer aridity, and we use these relationships to reconstruct past aridity. Our results indicate that the Pleistocene faunas signal paleoenvironments that were on average less arid than today, including during the summer, consistent with other lines of evidence that suggest a higher water table and expansion of well-watered habitats. Greater water availability can be explained by lower temperature and reduced evapotranspiration during cooler phases of the Pleistocene, probably coupled with enhanced groundwater recharge due to increased winter precipitation.     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.     

The deflection of the vertical in the Western and Central Mediterranean area

The deflection of the vertical at 23 stations was determined by gravimetrical methods and compared to the difference of astronomic observations and geodetic values of the European adjustment. The results show a fair agreement between the two independent sets of values, indicating that doubts about the relative reliability of submarine gravity observations are not justified. A systematic discrepancy in the meridian components of the deflection may reflect on theHayford ellipsoid as used in the European adjustment.

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Zusammenfassung Auf 23 Stationen wurde die Lotabweichung gravimetrisch bestimmt und den astro-geod?tischen Werten der europ?ischen Ausgleichung gegenübergestellt. Die beiden Ergebnisse stimmen sehr gut überein. Damit werden die Bedenken hinf?llig, die sich gegen den Wert von Messungen in Unterseebooten richteten. Systematische Abweichungen in den meridionalen Komponenten beruhen m?glicherweise auf der art der Anwendung des Hayfordschen Ellipsoids in der Ausgleichung des Zentraleurop?ischen Netzes.

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Resumen La desviación de la vertical en 23 estaciones ha sido determinada por el método gravimétrico y compara con los resultados astrogeodéticos de la compensación europea. Existe muy buen acuerdo entre los dos conjuntos de datos, que demuestra que las dudas emitidas en cuanto al valor de las observaciones en submarino son injustificadas. Una discordancia sistemática en las componentes meridianas podria ser debida al empleo del elipsoide deHayford en la compensación de la red europea.

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Résumé La déviation de la verticale en 23 stations a été déterminée par la méthode gravimétrique et comparée aux résultats astrogéodésiques de la compensation européenne. Il y a très bon accord entre les 2 ensembles de données, ce qui montre que les doutes émis quant à la valeur des observations en sous-marins sont injustifiés. Une discordance systématique dans les composantes méridiennes pourrait être due à la fa?on dont on a employé l'ellipso?de deHayford dans la compensation du réseau central européen.

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Sommario E'stata determinata col metodo gravimetrico la deviazione della verticale in 23 stazioni e comparata ai risultati astro-geodetici della compensazione europea. Vi é molto buon accordo tra i due insiemi di dati, ciò che dimostra che i dubbi emessi circa il valore delle osservazioni in sottomarino sono ingiustificati. Una discordanza sistematica tra le componenti maridiane potrebbe essere dovuta all'impiego nella compensazione della rete central europea dell'ellisoide diHayford.

     

An approach for GIS-based statistical landslide susceptibility zonation—with a case study in the Himalayas

Landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) is necessary for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous regions. A number of methods, viz. landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses have been used for the LSZ studies and they are again briefly reviewed here. In this work, two methods, the Information Value (InfoVal) and the Landslide Nominal Susceptibility Factor (LNSF) methods that are based on bivariate statistical analysis have been applied for LSZ mapping in a part of the Himalayas. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relative relief, lithology, buffer zones along thrusts, faults and lineaments, drainage density and landcover) that are related to landslide activity, have been generated using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The LSZ derived from the LNSF method, has been compared with that produced from the InfoVal method and the result shows a more realistic LSZ map from the LNSF method which appears to conform to the heterogeneity of the terrain.     

Application of LPW and SAI SAFNWC/MSG satellite products in pre-convective environments

The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imagery (SEVIRI) instrument, on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), is a radiometer with eight infrared (IR) spectral bands. Seven of these channels are used to retrieve Layer Precipitable Water (LPW) and Stability Analysis Imagery (SAI). Both products are the PGE07 and the PGE08 of SAFNWC (Satellite Application Facility on support to Nowcasting and Very Short-Range Forecasting). The authors at Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INM) have developed the LPW and SAI algorithms, in the SAFNWC framework. Both products are retrieved using statistical retrieval based on neural networks. The main advantage of these algorithms versus physical retrieval algorithms is the independence from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The LPW provides information on the water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-section area in three layers in the troposphere (low, middle and high) and in the total layer in cloud free areas. The SAI provides estimations of the atmospheric instability in cloud free areas, in particular the Lifted Index (LI).The stability and precipitable water obtained with both products are routinely generated every 15 min at a satellite horizontal resolution of 3 km in NADIR. A significant advantage of these MSG products, compared to traditional measurements such as radiosondes, is their ability to measure high resolution temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric stability and moisture in pre-convective environments. The main disadvantage is that they do not have the vertical resolution of radiosonde. The MSG moisture and stability time trend fields are especially useful during the period preceding the outbreak of convection due to the high resolution. Once the outbreak of convection occurs, the products calculated in the clear air pixels surrounding the convective system will allow to foresee the evolution of the convection.     

Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications

This paper reports on the barriers that members of the UK public perceive to engaging with climate change. It draws upon three mixed-method studies, with an emphasis on the qualitative data which offer an in-depth insight into how people make sense of climate change. The paper defines engagement as an individual's state, comprising three elements: cognitive, affective and behavioural. A number of common barriers emerge from the three studies, which operate broadly at ‘individual’ and ‘social’ levels. These major constraints to individual engagement with climate change have implications for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gases in the UK. We argue that targeted and tailored information provision should be supported by wider structural change to enable citizens and communities to reduce their carbon dependency. Policy implications for effective engagement are discussed.     

Seismic hazard assessment in central Ionian Islands area (Greece) based on stress release models

The long-term probabilistic seismic hazard of central Ionian Islands (Greece) is studied through the application of stress release models. In order to identify statistically distinct regions, the study area is divided into two subareas, namely Kefalonia and Lefkada, on the basis of seismotectonic properties. Previous results evidenced the existence of stress transfer and interaction between the Kefalonia and Lefkada fault segments. For the consideration of stress transfer and interaction, the linked stress release model is applied. A new model is proposed, where the hazard rate function in terms of X(t) has the form of the Weibull distribution. The fitted models are evaluated through residual analysis and the best of them is selected through the Akaike information criterion. Based on AIC, the results demonstrate that the simple stress release model fits the Ionian data better than the non-homogeneous Poisson and the Weibull models. Finally, the thinning simulation method is applied in order to produce simulated data and proceed to forecasting.     

Calibration of cosmogenic Cl production rates from Ca and K spallation in lava flows from Mt. Etna (38°N, Italy) and Payun Matru (36°S, Argentina)

Published cosmogenic ³⁶Cl production rates from Ca and K spallation differ by almost a factor of 2. In this paper we determine production rates of ³⁶Cl from Ca and K in samples of known age containing little Cl. Ca-rich plagioclases and K-feldspars were separated from a total of 13 samples collected on the surfaces of four basaltic lava flows at Mt. Etna (38°N, Italy) and from a trachyte lava flow at Payun Matru volcano (36°S, Argentina). Eruption ages, determined by independent methods, range between 0.4 and 32 ka. Sample site elevations range between 500 and 2500 m. Corresponding scaling factors were calculated using five different published scaling models, four of which consider paleo-geomagnetic field variations integrated over the exposure durations. The resulting five data sets were then analyzed using a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates the major inherent uncertainties in a consistent way. Spallation production rates from Ca and K, considering all major uncertainties, are 42.2 ± 4.8 atoms ³⁶Cl (g Ca)⁻¹ a⁻¹ and 124.9 ± 8.1 atoms ³⁶Cl (g K)⁻¹ a⁻¹ normalized to sea level and high latitude using the scaling method of Stone (2000). Scaling models that account for paleo-geomagnetic intensity changes yield very similar mean values (at most +4%). If the uncertainties in the independent ages are neglected in the Bayesian model, the calculated element specific production rates would be about 12% higher. Our results are in agreement with previous production rate estimations both for Ca and K if only low Cl (i.e. ?20 ppm) samples are considered.     

Future emissions of marine halogenated very-short lived substances under climate change

Halogenated Very Short-lived Substances (VSLS), such as bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide, are naturally produced in the oceans and are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The effect of climate change on the oceanic emissions of these compounds is not well quantified. Based on present-day observed global oceanic and atmospheric concentrations, and historic and future data from three CMIP5 models, past and future sea-to-air fluxes of these VSLS are calculated. The simulations are used to infer possible effects of projected changes of physical forcing on emissions in different oceanic regimes. CMIP5 model output for 1979–2100 from the historical scenario and the RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 are used as input data for the emission calculations. Of the parameters that have the main influence on the sea-to-air fluxes, the global sea surface temperatures show a steady increase during the twenty-first century, while the projected changes of sea surface wind speed is very small. The calculated emissions based on the historical CMIP5 model runs (1979–2005) increased over the 26 year period and agree well with the emissions based on ERA-Interim data. The future sea-to-air fluxes of VSLS generally increase during the twenty-first century under the assumption of constant concentration fields in the ocean and atmosphere. The multi-model mean global emissions of bromoform increase by 29.4% (9.0%) between 1986 and 2005 and 2081–2100 under RCP 8.5 (2.6) and dibromomethane and methyl iodide emissions increase by 23.3% (6.4%) and 5.5% (1.5%), respectively. Uncertainties of the future emission estimates, driven by ongoing environmental changes such as changing oceanic productivity (not considered in this study) are discussed.     

The influence of oxic degradation on the sedimentary biomarker record I: evidence from Madeira Abyssal Plain turbidites

Free and ester-bound lipid biomarkers were analysed in oxidised and unoxidised parts of four distinct turbidites from the Madeira Abyssal Plain (MAP), which contained 1 to 2% organic carbon homogeneously distributed throughout the turbidites at the time they were deposited. These turbidites are well suited to study the effects of oxic degradation on lipid biomarkers without the complicating influence of varying organic matter sources, sedimentation rates, or bioturbation. One sample from the oxidised turbidite was compared with two samples from the unoxidised part of each turbidite. Postdepositional oxic degradation decreased concentrations of biomarkers by several orders of magnitude. The ester-bound lipids were degraded to a far lesser extent than their free counterparts were. The extent of degradation of different compounds differed substantially. Within a specific class of biomarkers, degradation also took place to a different extent, altering their distributions. This study shows that oxic degradation of the organic matter may have a profound effect on the biomarker fingerprint and may result in a severe bias in, for example, the interpretation of organic matter sources and the estimation of the palaeoproductivity of specific groups of phytoplankton.