Volume,gravitational potential energy reduction,and regional centroid position change in the wake of landslides triggered by the 14 April 2010 Yushu earthquake of China

In recent years, earthquake-triggered landslides have attracted much attention in the scientific community as a main form of seismic ground response. However, little work has been performed concerning the volume and gravitational potential energy reduction of earthquake-triggered landslides and their severe effect on landscape change. This paper presents a quantitative study on the volume, gravitational potential energy reduction, and change in landscape related to landslides triggered by the 14 April 2010 Yushu earthquake. At least 2,036 landslides were triggered by the earthquake. A total landslide scar area of 1.194 km² was delineated from the visual interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images and was supported by selected field checking. In this paper, we focus on possible answers to the following five questions: (1) What is the total volume of the 2,036 landslides triggered by the earthquake, and what is the average landslide erosion thickness in the earthquake-stricken area? (2) What are the elevations of all landslide materials in relation to pre- and post-landsliding? (3) How much was the gravitational potential energy reduced due to the sliding of these landslide materials? (4) What is the average elevation change caused by these landslides in the study area? (5) What is the vertical change of the regional centroid position above sea level, as induced by these landslides? It is concluded that the total volume of the 2,036 landslides is 2.9399?×?10⁶ m³. The landslide erosion thickness throughout the study area is 2.02 mm. The materials of these landslides moved from an elevation of 4,145.243 to 4,104.697 m, resulting in a decreased distance of 40.546 m. The gravitational potential energy reduction related to the landslides triggered by the earthquake was 2.9213?×?10¹² J. The average regional elevation of the study area is 4,427.160 m, a value consistent with the assumption that the accumulated materials were remained in situ. This value changes from 4,427.160 to 4,427.158 m with all landslide materials moved out of the study area, resulting in a reduction in elevation of 2 mm. Based on the assumption that all landslide materials moved out of the study area, the elevations of the centroid of the study area’s crust changed from 2,222.45967 to 2,222.45867 m, which means the centroid value decreased by 1 mm. This value is 0.001 mm when assuming that the materials were remained in situ, which is almost negligible, compared with the situation of “all landslide materials moved out of the study area.”     

Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an,Shaanxi Province,China

Landslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall （IR） and antecedent effective rainfall （AER）. Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; “A” region is safe, “B” region is on watch alert, “C” region is on warning alert and “D” region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi’an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi’an region.