Optimal selection of artificial neural network parameters for the prediction of a karstic aquifer's response

The simulation of karstic aquifers is difficult using traditional groundwater numerical simulators, as the exact knowledge of the hydraulic characteristics of the physical system in small scale is rarely available and the numerical simulators produce results of limited reliability. In the present work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are utilized to predict the response of a karstic aquifer, using the hydraulic head change per time step rather than the hydraulic head itself as output parameter of the network. As it will be demonstrated, in the first case a better approximation of the physical system's response is achieved as the change of the hydraulic head is more naturally connected to the input parameters of the network, which model the aquatic equilibrium of the system. The correlation of rainfall and hydraulic head change per time step was initially used to determine the time lag of the rainfall input data, which represents the time needed by the rainfall to percolate and reach the water table. In a second step, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm is utilized for the optimal selection of rainfall time lag as well as ANN's architecture and training parameters. Although a time consuming procedure, the improvement obtained suggests that the empirical determination of the ANN parameters and structure is not always sufficient and an optimization procedure, which minimizes the training and evaluation errors of the ANN, may provide substantially better simulation results. The optimized networks were finally used for midterm predictions (30 to 90 days ahead) of the hydraulic head, showing the ability of the ANN with hydraulic head change as output parameter to provide predictions with high accuracy at the end of the considered time period. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benthic input rates predict seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) fish farm-induced decline

Fish farms represent a growing source of anthropogenic disturbance to benthic communities, and efficient predictors of such impacts are urgently needed. We explored the effects of fish farm benthic organic and nutrient inputs on the population dynamics of a key seagrass species (Posidonia oceanica) in four Mediterranean deep meadows adjacent to sea bream and sea bass farms. We performed two annual plant censuses on permanent plots at increasing distance from farms and measured benthic sedimentation rates around plots. High shoot mortality rates were recorded near the cages, up to 20 times greater than at control sites. Recruitment rates increased in variability but could not compensate mortality, leading to rapid seagrass decline within the first 100 m from cages. Seagrass mortality increased with total sedimentation rates (K=0.55, p<0.0002), and with organic matter (K=0.50, p=0.001), total nitrogen (K=0.46, p=0.002) and total phosphorus (K=0.56, p<3.10(-5)) inputs. P. oceanica decline accelerated above a phosphorus loading threshold of 50mg m(-2)day(-1). Phosphorus benthic sedimentation rate seems a powerful predictor of seagrass mortality from fish farming. Coupling direct measurements of benthic sedimentation rates with dynamics of key benthic species is proposed as an efficient strategy to predict fish farm impacts to benthic communities.     

Explicit determination of the pulse inherent in pulse‐like ground motions

A new method is presented for the determination of the parameters of the pulse contained in pulse‐like records. The Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou (M&P) wavelet is used for the mathematical representation of the pulse, but the proposed methodology could be modified to cover other types of wavelets as well. First, the period of the pulse is determined from the peak of the S_d × S_v product spectrum, a new concept that is introduced herein and is defined as the product of the velocity and the displacement response spectra. The remaining parameters of the M&P wavelet are derived from the targeted response spectrum of the ground motion applying a new relationship that is established between the cumulative absolute displacement (CAD) of a wavelet and its peak spectral amplitude. The method follows a well‐defined procedure that can be easily implemented in a computer code for the automatic determination of the pulse parameters of a given ground motion. As an application, the pulses contained in 91 NGA records that have been classified as pulse‐like by Baker are determined. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chaotic mixing in noisy Hamiltonian systems

This paper summarizes an investigation of the effects of low-amplitude noise and periodic driving on phase-space transport in three-dimensional Hamiltonian systems, a problem directly applicable to systems like galaxies, where such perturbations reflect internal irregularities and/or a surrounding environment. A new diagnostic tool is exploited to quantify the extent to which, over long times, different segments of the same chaotic orbit evolved in the absence of such perturbations can exhibit very different amounts of chaos. First-passage-time experiments are used to study how small perturbations of an individual orbit can dramatically accelerate phase-space transport, allowing 'sticky' chaotic orbits trapped near regular islands to become unstuck on surprisingly short time‐scales. The effects of small perturbations are also studied in the context of orbit ensembles with the aim of understanding how such irregularities can increase the efficacy of chaotic mixing. For both noise and periodic driving, the effect of the perturbation scales roughly logarithmically in amplitude. For white noise, the details are unimportant: additive and multiplicative noise tend to have similar effects and the presence or absence of friction related to the noise by a fluctuation–dissipation theorem is largely irrelevant. Allowing for coloured noise can significantly decrease the efficacy of the perturbation, but only when the autocorrelation time, which vanishes for white noise, becomes so large that there is little power at frequencies comparable with the natural frequencies of the unperturbed orbit. This suggests strongly that noise-induced extrinsic diffusion, like modulational diffusion associated with periodic driving, is a resonance phenomenon. Potential implications for galaxies are discussed.     

Robustness of simplified analysis methods for rocking structures on compliant soil

Recognizing the beneficial effect of nonlinear soil–foundation response has led to a novel design concept, termed ‘rocking isolation’. The analysis and design of such rocking structures require nonlinear dynamic time history analyses. Analyzing the entire soil–foundation–structure system is computationally demanding, impeding the application of rocking isolation in practice. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop efficient simplified analysis methods. This paper assesses the robustness of two simplified analysis methods, using (i) a nonlinear and (ii) a bilinear rocking stiffness combined with linear viscous damping. The robustness of the simplified methods is assessed by (i) one-to-one comparison with a benchmark finite element (FE) analysis using a selection of ground motions and (ii) statistical comparison of probability distributions of response quantities, which characterize the time history response of rocking systems. A bridge pier (assumed rigid) supported on a square foundation, lying on a stiff clay stratum, is used as an illustrative example. Nonlinear dynamic FE time history analysis serves as a benchmark. Both methods yield reasonably accurate predictions of the maximum rotation θ_max. Their stochastic comparison with respect to the empirical cumulative distribution function of θ_max reveals that the nonlinear and the bilinear methods are not biased. Thus, both can be used to estimate probabilities of exceeding a certain threshold value of θ. Developed in this paper, the bilinear method is much easier to calibrate than the nonlinear, offering similar performance.     

Poynting Robertson effects due to a logarithmic correction to the Newtonian potential

Astrophysics and Space Science - We performed a detailed timing study of the Atoll source 4U 1705-44 in order to understand the accretion disk geometry. Cross correlation function (CCF) studies...     

Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predictors of Flaring Activity

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric magnetograms and/or white-light observations. Two of them are the Ising energy and the sum of the total horizontal magnetic field gradient. The former has been developed from line-of-sight magnetograms, while the latter uses sunspot detections and characteristics, based on continuum images. Aiming to include these parameters in an automated prediction scheme, we test their applicability on regular photospheric magnetic field observations provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We test their efficiency as predictors of flaring activity on a representative sample of active regions and investigate possible modifications of these quantities. The Ising energy appears to be an efficient predictor, and the efficiency is even improved if it is modified to describe interacting magnetic partitions or sunspot umbrae. The sum of the horizontal magnetic field gradient appears to be slightly more promising than the three variations of the Ising energy we implement in this article. The new predictors are also compared with two very promising predictors: the effective connected magnetic field strength and the total unsigned non-neutralized current. Our analysis shows that the efficiency of morphological predictors depends on projection effects in a nontrivial way. All four new predictors are found useful for inclusion in an automated flare forecasting facility, such as the Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST), but their utility, among others, will ultimately be determined by the validation effort underway in the framework of the FLARECAST project.     

The Poynting-Robertson effect in the Newtonian potential with a Yukawa correction

We consider a Yukawa-type gravitational potential combined with the Poynting-Robertson effect. Dust particles originating within the asteroid belt and moving on circular and elliptic trajectories are studied and expressions for the time rate of change of their orbital radii and semimajor axes, respectively, are obtained. These expressions are written in terms of basic particle parameters, namely their density and diameter. Then, they are applied to produce expressions for the time required by the dust particles to reach the orbit of Earth. For the Yukawa gravitational potential, dust particles of diameter \(10^{ - 3}\) m in circular orbits require times of the order of \(8.557 \times 10^{6}\) yr and for elliptic orbits of eccentricities \(e =0.1, 0.5\) require times of \(9.396 \times 10^{6}\) and \(2.129 \times 10^{6}\) yr respectively to reach Earth’s orbit. Finally, various cases of the Yukawa potential are studied and the corresponding particle times to reach Earth’s are derived per case along with numerical results for circular and various elliptical orbits.     

Preliminary identification of earthquake triggered multi-hazard and risk in Pleret Sub-District (Yogyakarta,Indonesia)

Yogyakarta is one of the large cities in Central Java, located on Java Island, Indonesia. The city, and the Pleret sub-district, where the study has taken place, is prone to earthquake hazards, because it is close to several seismically active zones, such as the Sunda Megathrust and the active fault known as the Opak Fault. Since a devastating earthquake of 2006, the population of the Pleret sub-district has increased significantly. Thus, the housing demand has increased, and so is the pace of low-cost housing that does not meet earthquake-safety requirements, and furthermore are often located on unstable slopes. The local alluvial material covering a jigsaw of unstable blocks and complex slope is conditions that can amplify the negative impacts of earthquakes. Within this context, this study is aiming to assess the multi-hazards and risks of earthquakes and related secondary hazards such as ground liquefaction, and coseismic landslides. To achieve this, we used geographic information systems and remote sensing methods supplemented with outcrop study and existing seismic data to derive shear-strain parameters. The results have revealed the presence of numerous uncharted active faults with movements visible from imagery and outcrops. show that the middle part of the study area has a complex geological structure, indicated by many unchartered faults in the outcrops. Using this newly mapped blocks combined with shear strain data, we reassessed the collapse probability of buildings that reach level >0.75 near the Opak River, in central Pleret sub-district. Classifying the buildings and from population distribution, we could determine that the highest risk was during nighttime as the buildings susceptible to fall are predominantly housing buildings. The secondary hazards follow a slightly different distribution with a concentration of risks in the West.     

Numerical investigation of the resistance of precast RC pinned beam‐to‐column connections under shear loading

In precast technology, the effective design and construction are related to the behaviour of the connections between the structural members in order to cater for all service, environmental and earthquake load conditions. Therefore, the design and detailing of the connections should be undertaken consistently and with awareness of the desired structural response. In the research presented herein, an analytical expression is proposed for the prediction of the resistance of precast pinned connections under shear monotonic and cyclic loading. The proposed formula addresses the case where the failure of the connection occurs with simultaneous flexural failure of the dowel and compression failure of the concrete around the dowel, expected to occur either when (i) adequate concrete cover of the dowels is provided (d > 6 D) or (ii) adequate confining reinforcement (as defined in the article) is foreseen around the dowels in the case of small concrete covers (d < 6 D). The expression is calibrated against available experimental data and numerical results derived from a nonlinear numerical investigation. Emphasis is given to identifying the effect of several parameters on the horizontal shear resistance of the connection such as: the number and diameter of the dowels; the strength of materials (concrete, grout, steel); the concrete cover of the dowels; the thickness of the elastomeric pad; the type of shear loading (monotonic or cyclic); the pre‐existing axial stress in the dowels; and the rotation of the joint. In addition, recommendations for the design of precast pinned beam‐to‐column connections are given, especially when the connections are utilised in earthquake resistant structures. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.