Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade^???1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km³. Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998?C1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods.     

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.     

Ecological quality assessment of small estuaries from the Portuguese coast based on fish assemblages indices

The importance of establishing the ecological quality of estuarine systems has been widely acknowledged and led to the development of several fish community-based multimetric indices. Nevertheless, a question rose about the accuracy of these tools when natural disturbance is acting upon the organization of the systems’ communities. Four multimetric indices were used to examine their ability to differentiate the ecological status of five small estuarine systems (southern Portugal), and also to test if they reflected the level of anthropogenic pressures. Fish assemblages from Mira, Odeceixe and Aljezur (in the Southwest coast), Gilão and Bensafrim (in the South coast) estuaries were sampled seasonally for one year, and anthropogenic sources of pressure were identified and quantified. We found that although the applied indices provided information on ecological condition differentiation among systems, they are unable to explain different classes of ecological status in systems with equivalent pressure levels.     

Elemental and mineralogical changes in soils due to bioturbation along an earthworm invasion chronosequence in Northern Minnesota

Minnesota forested soils have evolved without the presence of earthworms since the last glacial retreat. When exotic earthworms arrive, enhanced soil bioturbation often results in dramatic morphological and chemical changes in soils with negative implications for the forests’ sustainability. However, the impacts of earthworm invasion on geochemical processes in soils are not well understood. This study attempts to quantify the role of earthworm invasion in mineral chemical weathering and nutrient dynamics along an earthworm invasion chronosequence in a sugar maple forest in Northern Minnesota. Depth and rates of soil mixing can be tracked with atmospherically derived short lived radioisotopes ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. Their radioactivities increase in the lower A horizon at the expense of the peak activities near the soil surface, which indicate that soil mixing rate and its depth reach have been enhanced by earthworms. Enhanced soil mixing by earthworms is consistent with the ways that the vertical profiles of elemental and mineralogical compositions were affected by earthworm invasion. Biologically cycled Ca and P have peak concentrations near the soil surface prior to earthworm invasion. However, these peak abundances significantly declined in the earthworm invaded soils presumably due to enhanced soil mixing. It is clear that enhanced soil mixing due to earthworms also profoundly altered the vertical distribution of most mineral species within A horizons. Though the mechanisms are not clear yet, earthworm invasion appears to have contributed to net losses of clay mineral species and opal from the A horizons. As much as earthworms vertically relocated minerals and elements, they also intensify the contacts between organic matter and cations as shown in the increased amount of Ca and Fe in organically complexed and in exchangeable pools. With future studies on soil mixing rates and elemental leaching, this study will quantitatively and mechanically address the role of earthworms in geochemical evolution of soils and forests’ nutrient dynamics.     

Investigation of CO2 behavior and study on design of optimal injection into Gorae-V aquifer

This study presents the Bottom-hole pressure (BHP) behavior with different wettabilities and the optimal design scheme to effectively inject CO₂ into the Gorae-V aquifer. As a result, the injection rate and injectivity were increased as the wettability condition became more water-wet. However, the more wettability condition becomes water-wet, the more the ultimate CO₂ injection volume decreases. When the injectivity was 346 ton/day/Mpa at the Gorae-V aquifer, the aquifer can sustain CO₂ injection at a rate of 2,425 tons per day over this time period. A design for a complete CCS system was developed based on the existing off-shore pipeline in combination with new on-shore CO₂ transport infrastructure, and a pressure of 12.8 MPa is required at the CO₂ source to maintain this injection rate.     

Evidence of gas hydrate from downhole logging data in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea

The Gas Hydrate Research and Development Organization (GHDO) of Korea successfully accomplished both coring (hydraulic piston and pressure coring) and logging (logging-while-drilling, LWD, and wireline logging) to investigate the presence of gas hydrate during the first deep drilling expedition in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea (referred to as UBGH1) in 2007. The LWD data from two sites (UBGH1-9, UBGH1-10) showed elevated electrical resistivity (>80 Ω-m) and P-wave velocity (>2000 m/s) values indicating the presence of gas hydrate. During the coring period, the richest gas hydrate accumulation was discovered at these intervals. Based on log data, the occurrence of gas hydrate is primarily controlled by the presence of fractures. The gas hydrate saturation calculated using Archie’s relation shows greater than 60% (as high as ∼90%) of the pore space, although Archie’s equation typically overestimates gas hydrate saturation in near-vertical fractures. The saturation of gas hydrate is also estimated using the modified Biot-Gassmann theory (BGTL) by Lee and Collett (2006). The saturation values estimated rom BGTL are much lower than those calculated from Archie’s equation. Based on log data, the hydrate-bearing sediment section is approximately 70 m (UBGH1-9) to 130 m (UBGH1-10) in thickness at these two sites. This was further directly confirmed by the recovery of gas hydrate samples and pore water freshening collected from deep drilling core during the expedition. LWD data also strongly support the interpretation of the seismic gas hydrate indicators (e.g., vent or chimney structures and bottom-simulating reflectors), which imply the probability of widespread gas hydrate presence in the Ulleung Basin.     

Empirical ocean-color algorithms to retrieve chlorophyll-a, total suspended matter, and colored dissolved organic matter absorption coefficient in the Yellow and East China Seas

A bio-optical dataset collected during the 1998?C2007 period in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) was used to provide alternative empirical ocean-color algorithms in the retrieval of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), total suspended matter (TSM), and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption coefficients at 440 nm (ag₄₄₀). Assuming that remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) could be retrieved accurately, empirical algorithms for T_Chl (regionally tuned Tassan??s Chl-a algorithm) in case-1 waters (T_Chl2i in case-2 waters), T_TSM (regionally tuned Tassan??s TSM algorithm), and T_ag440 or C_ag440 (regionally tuned Tassan??s or Carder??s ag₄₄₀ algorithm) were able to retrieve Chl-a, TSM, and ag₄₄₀ with uncertainties as high as 35, 46, and 35%, respectively. Applying the standard SeaWiFS Rrs, T_Chl was not viable in the eastern part of the YECS, which was associated with an inaccurate SeaWiFS Rrs retrieval because of improper atmospheric correction. T_Chl behaved better than other algorithms in the turbid case-2 waters, although overestimation was still observed. To retrieve more reliable Chl-a estimates with standard SeaWiFS Rrs in turbid water (a proxy for case-2 waters), we modified T_Chl for data with SeaWiFS normalized water-leaving radiance at 555 nm (nLw₅₅₅) > 2 mW cm^?2 ??m^?1 sr^?1 (T_Chl2s). Finally, with standard SeaWiFS Rrs, we recommend switching algorithms from T_Chl2s (for case-2 waters) to MOC_Chl (SeaWiFS-modified NASA OC4v4 standard algorithm for case-1 waters) for retrieving Chl-a, which resulted in uncertainties as high as 49%. To retrieve TSM and ag₄₄₀ using SeaWiFS Rrs, we recommend empirical algorithms for T_TSM (pre-SeaWiFS-modified form) and MT_ag440 or MC_ag440 (SeaWiFS Rrs-modified forms of T_ag440 or C_ag440). These could retrieve with uncertainties as high as 82 and 52%, respectively.     

Web-GIS tool for the management of rural land markets

Land abandonment and stagnation of rural markets in the last few years have become one of the main concerns of rural administrations. The use of Web and GIS (Geographic Information System) technologies can help to mitigate the effects of these problems. This paper pro-poses a novel Web-GIS tool with spatial capabilities for the dynamization of rural land markets by encouraging the transfer of land from owners to farmers through the leasing of plots. The system, based on open source software, offers information about the properties, their environment and their owners. It uses standards for handling the geographic information and for communicating with external data sources. This system was used as the basis for the development of SITEGAL, the tool for the management of the Land Bank of Galicia (www.bantegal.com/sitegal). SITEGAL has been operational since 2007 obtaining benefits for both administration and users (farmers and land owners), and promoting the e-Government.     

On the sampling errors from raingauges and microwave attenuation measurements

The sampling error formalism by North and Nakamoto (1989) has been widely referenced in research papers on sampling using space-borne sensors or ground-borne sensors. However, their formalism is found to not only underestimate the sampling error, especially for the raingauge network case, but also not be applicable for the cases of using a line of raingauges or microwave attenuation measurements. In this paper, the sampling error formalism has been revised and applied to the same sampling design and the same rainrate model as in North and Nakamoto (1989) for the comparison. The sampling error estimated using the revised formula was found to be more than 50% higher than that by North and Nakamoto (1989). For the case of using a line of raingauges we found that the sampling error converges to a certain value, not zero as in North and Nakamoto formalism, as the number of gauges increases. The microwave attenuation measurements case, which is the same as the case of using a line of infinite raingauges, also gives non-zero sampling errors. Finally, the combined sampling using both satellite and ground-borne sensors (e.g., raingauge network, a line of raingauges, or microwave attenuation measurements) was reviewed to check their design orthogonality and estimated the sampling errors for the combination of satellite and raingauge network case to see its behavior depending on various settings of these two different measurements.     

Last glacial sea-level changes and paleogeography of the Korea (Tsushima) Strait

The Korea (Tsushima) Strait is an important seaway through which the warm Tsushima Current flows into the East Sea (Japan Sea). A paleogeographic map constrained by a regional sea-level curve developed on the basis of a number of recent ¹⁴C radiocarbon dates suggests that the Korea Strait was not closed during the last glacial period. Rather, it was open as a channel-like seaway linking the western North Pacific and the East Sea. Some fraction of the paleo-Tsushima Current inflow presumably continued at that time through the Korea Strait. The activity of the paleo-Tsushima Current is evidenced by the distribution pattern of river-derived lowstand deposits, consisting of a beach/shoreface complex and lowstand deltaic wedges. Received: 16 April 1999 / Revision accepted: 25 February 2000