An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

Forecasting flood-prone areas using Shannon’s entropy model

With regard to the lack of quality information and data in watersheds, it is of high importance to present a new method for evaluating flood potential. Shannon’s entropy model is a new model in evaluating dangers and it has not yet been used to evaluate flood potential. Therefore, being a new model in determining flood potential, it requires evaluation and investigation in different regions and this study is going to deal with this issue. For to this purpose, 70 flooding areas were recognized and their distribution map was provided by ArcGIS10.2 software in the study area. Information layers of altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, drainage density, distance from the river, topographic wetness index (TWI), lithology, soil type, and land use were recognized as factors affecting flooding and the mentioned maps were provided and digitized by GIS environment. Then, flood susceptibility forecasting map was provided and model accuracy evaluation was conducted using ROC curve and 30% flooding areas express good precision of the model (73.5%) for the study area.     

Reconstruction of specific mass balance for glaciers in Western Himalaya using seasonal sensitivity characteristic(s)

Seasonal sensitivity characteristics (SSCs) were developed for Naradu, Shaune Garang, Gor Garang and Gara glaciers, Western Himalaya to quantify the changes in mean specific mass balance using monthly temperature and precipitation perturbations. The temperature sensitivities were observed high during summer (April–October) and precipitation sensitivities during winter months (November–March), respectively. The reconstructed mass balance correlates well with the field and remote sensing measurements, available between 1980 and 2014. Further, SSCs were used with the monthly mean temperatures and precipitation estimates of ERA 20CM ensemble climate reanalysis datasets to reconstruct the specific mass balance for a period of 110 years, between 1900 and 2010. Mass balance estimates suggest that the Shaune Garang, Gor-Garang and Gara glaciers have experienced both positive and negative mass balance, whereas the Naradu glacier has experienced only negative mass balance since 1900 AD. Further, a cumulative loss of \(-133 \pm 21.5\) m.w.e was estimated for four glaciers during the observation period. This study is the first record from Indian Himalaya in evaluating the mass balance characteristics over a century scale.     

First discovery of fossil winged seeds of <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Pinus</Emphasis> L. (family Pinaceae) from the Indian Cenozoic and its palaeobiogeographic significance

The occurrences of Pinus L. (family Pinaceae) megafossils (cones and leaf remains) have been abundantly documented from the Cenozoic sediments of eastern Asia (Japan and China), but none has been confirmed from the Indian Cenozoic till date. Here, we describe Pinus arunachalensis Khan and Bera, sp. nov. on the basis of seed remains from the middle to late Miocene Siwalik sediments of the Dafla Formation exposed around West Kameng district in Arunachal Pradesh, eastern Himalaya. Seeds are winged, broadly oblong to oval in outline, 1.3–1.5 cm long and 0.4–0.6 cm broad (in the middle part), located basipetally and symmetrically to wing, cellular pattern of wing is seemingly undulatory and parallel with the long axis of the wing. So far, this report provides the first ever fossil record of Pinus winged seeds from India. This record suggests that Pinus was an important component of tropical-subtropical evergreen forest in the area during the Miocene and this group subsequently declined from the local vegetation probably because of the gradual intensification of MSI (monsoon index) from the Miocene to the present. We also review the historical phytogeography and highlight the phytogeographic implication of this genus.     

Evaluation of four supervised learning methods for groundwater spring potential mapping in Khalkhal region (Iran) using GIS-based features

One important tool for water resources management in arid and semi-arid areas is groundwater potential mapping. In this study, four data-mining models including K-nearest neighbor (KNN), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and quadric discriminant analysis (QDA) were used for groundwater potential mapping to get better and more accurate groundwater potential maps (GPMs). For this purpose, 14 groundwater influence factors were considered, such as altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, slope length, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index, distance from rivers, river density, distance from faults, fault density, land use, and lithology. From 842 springs in the study area, in the Khalkhal region of Iran, 70 % (589 springs) were considered for training and 30 % (253 springs) were used as a validation dataset. Then, KNN, LDA, MARS, and QDA models were applied in the R statistical software and the results were mapped as GPMs. Finally, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was implemented to evaluate the performance of the models. According to the results, the area under the curve of ROCs were calculated as 81.4, 80.5, 79.6, and 79.2 % for MARS, QDA, KNN, and LDA, respectively. So, it can be concluded that the performances of KNN and LDA were acceptable and the performances of MARS and QDA were excellent. Also, the results depicted high contribution of altitude, TWI, slope angle, and fault density, while plan curvature and land use were seen to be the least important factors.     

Statistical analysis and source rock of the Minim-Martap plateau bauxite,Cameroon

The Minim-Martap plateau bauxite deposit, located between the Minim and the Martap villages, is one of the 11 plateaus within the Minim-Martap bauxite region. The plateau has an elevation of 1294 m above sea level, with three to more 30 m thickness of bauxite horizon. These plateaus were formed as result of supergene weathering of volcanic rocks occurring as dissected flow basalt landscapes that form relatively flat plateau rising steeply from the surrounding granites. The bauxite deposit of the plateau is lateritic, with the surface of the plateau been completely covered by indurated caps. Seventeen bauxite samples were collected from the plateau and prepared for geochemical analysis. Whole rock analysis was carried out using the X-ray Fluorescence technique and ICP-MS was used for trace elements investigation. Statistical analysis reveals that average values of Al₂O₃ (54.87%), Fe₂O₃ (7.17%), SiO₂ (2.44%), and TiO₂ (4.54%) indicate the plateau bauxite deposit is an of a world class standard with very little impurities compared to the standard major element contents of bauxite (>?40% A1₂O₃, less than <?20% Fe₂O₃, and less than <?8% combined SiO₂). Abundant trace elements include Zr, Ce, Sr, V, Ba, La, Nd, Ga, and Nb. Weathering due to chemical alteration indices using the Ruxton ratio and CIA approaches revealed the plateau have undergone intense weathering process that formed the bauxite deposit. Three different classification systems indicate it as a low iron-rich bauxite deposit. Precursor rock investigation indicates the origin of the bauxite is mafic, basaltic andesite igneous rocks with intermediate pH (basic–acidic characteristic).     

Exploration for iron ore in Agbado-Okudu,Kogi State,Nigeria

This report details the result of geophysical exploration for iron ore; which involved vertical magnetic intensity (?Z) and gravity measurements, to delineate the geometry and depth extent of the deposit and acquiring quantitative and qualitative information for pre-drilling purposes in Agbado-Okudu. It is located about 3 km from Jakura along Lokoja-Jakura marble quarry and within low latitude precambrian basement complex district of Kogi State, Nigeria. A total of 517 magnetic measurement points along 16 traverses and 330 gravity reading along 11 profiles on the deposit in northeast–southwest azimuth were undertaken. The magnetic and gravity data enhancement involved linear regression curve fitting and fast Fourier transform, which were used to construct residual magnetic (RM) and gravity (RG) anomalies, analytic signal amplitude, Euler deconvolution at varying spectral indices (SI), power spectrum, and source parameter image (SPI), using the submenu of Geosoft Oasis Montaj software. Interpretation of the RM and RG anomalies revealed a primary causative body which perfectly correlates the positive anomalies and iron ore deposit, in form of a horizontal or gently dipping dyke with strike length of 600 m and average width of 110–130 m, within the gneiss complex in the north and trending south of the area. A secondary causative body associated with the negative anomalies and inferred as a vertical/near vertical thin sheet striking northeast–southwest coincided with the granitic and quartzitic intrusion. The NW–SE and E–W lineament trend conformed Kibarian and Liberian orogeny cycles of generally known structural trends in Nigeria, which shows that the iron ore deposit is structurally controlled. Depths to sources were estimated within range ≤ 2–24 m and 37.5–60 m, regarded as shallow and relatively deep depths, respectively. Ten vertical boreholes ranging in depth between 50 and 100 m are recommended, five of which require a priority attention to ascertain the thickness of the primary causative body.     

Comparison of NATM and umbrella arch method in terms of cost,completion time,and deformation

In all kinds of tunnel excavations, especially those excavated in cities, it is important to control surface settlements and prevent damage to the surface and subsurface structures. For this purpose, in weak rocks and soils, the umbrella arch method (UAM) has been used in addition to the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM). NATM and UAM are the best-known classical methods used in tunnel excavation. In classical tunneling, NATM is usually preferred in normal rocks. However, in some cases, NATM may be insufficient. UAM is a very effective alternative especially in soils and weak rocks. In soil and weak rocks, UAM is especially necessary to prevent excessive deformations. Selection of UAM or NATM is based on the following factors: cost comparison of NATM and UAM, allowable deformations, quality of rock or soil, application time of NATM and UAM, availability of skilled workers, and qualification level of the workers. Therefore, selecting the excavation method in these kinds of grounds is vital in terms of achieving the project goals in time, managing the project costs effectively, and controlling the probable deformations on nearby structures. A critical issue in successful tunneling application is the ability to evaluate and predict the deformations, costs, and project time. In this paper, application times, costs, and deformation effects are compared between NATM and UAM in sensitive regions at the Uskudar-Umraniye-Cekmekoy metro project (UUCMP). Also, efficiency of the deformation control of UAM is demonstrated by using the 2D numerical analysis method. UUCMP is part of the Istanbul metro network. The tunnels have a cross section of 75.60 m² for NATM and 83.42 m² for UAM. Geology in this section is composed of weak sandstone. Diabase and andesite dykes are also rarely observed. This study shows that the construction cost of UAM are 1.7 times more expensive than NATM. Although application time of UAM is 2.5 times longer than NATM, it is 2.5 times more efficient in controlling the deformations. This efficiency in controlling the deformations is confirmed via two-dimensional numerical analyses.