Application of diffracted wave analysis to time‐lapse seismic data for CO2 leakage detection

Time‐lapse seismic analysis is utilized in CO₂ geosequestration to verify the CO₂ containment within a reservoir. A major risk associated with geosequestration is a possible leakage of CO₂ from the storage formation into overlaying formations. To mitigate this risk, the deployment of carbon capture and storage projects requires fast and reliable detection of relatively small volumes of CO₂ outside the storage formation. To do this, it is necessary to predict typical seepage scenarios and improve subsurface seepage detection methods. In this work we present a technique for CO₂ monitoring based on the detection of diffracted waves in time‐lapse seismic data. In the case of CO₂ seepage, the migrating plume might form small secondary accumulations that would produce diffracted, rather than reflected waves. From time‐lapse data analysis, we are able to separate the diffracted waves from the predominant reflections in order to image the small CO₂ plumes. To explore possibilities to detect relatively small amounts of CO₂, we performed synthetic time‐lapse seismic modelling based on the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) Otway project data. The detection method is based on defining the CO₂ location by measuring the coherency of the signal along diffraction offset‐traveltime curves. The technique is applied to a time‐lapse stacked section using a stacking velocity to construct offset‐traveltime curves. Given the amount of noise found in the surface seismic data, the predicted minimum detectable amount of CO₂ is 1000–2000 tonnes. This method was also applied to real data obtained from a time‐lapse seismic physical model. The use of diffractions rather than reflections for monitoring small amounts of CO₂ can enhance the capability of subsurface monitoring in CO₂ geosequestration projects.     

Postglacial history of alpine vegetation,fire, and climate from Laguna de Río Seco,Sierra Nevada,southern Spain

The Sierra Nevada of southern Spain is a landscape with a rich biological and cultural heritage. The range was extensively glaciated during the late Pleistocene. However, the postglacial paleoecologic history of the highest range in southern Europe is nearly completely unknown. Here we use sediments from a small lake above present treeline – Laguna de Río Seco at 3020 m elevation – in a paleoecological study documenting over 11,500 calendar years of vegetation, fire and climate change, addressing ecological and paleoclimatic issues unique to this area through comparison with regional paleoecological sequences. The early record is dominated by Pinus pollen, with Betula, deciduous Quercus, and grasses, with an understory of shrubs. It is unlikely that pine trees grew around the lake, and fire was relatively unimportant at this site during this period. Aquatic microfossils indicate that the wettest conditions and highest lake levels at Laguna de Río Seco occurred before 7800 cal yr BP. This is in contrast to lower elevation sites, where wettest conditions occurred after ca 7800. Greater differences in early Holocene seasonal insolation may have translated to greater snowpack and subsequently higher lake levels at higher elevations, but not necessarily at lower elevations, where higher evaporation rates prevailed. With declining seasonality after ca 8000 cal yr BP, but continuing summer precipitation, lake levels at the highest elevation site remained high, but lake levels at lower elevation sites increased as evaporation rates declined. Drier conditions commenced regionally after ca 5700 cal yr BP, shown at Laguna de Río Seco by declines in wetland pollen, and increases in high elevation steppe shrubs common today (Juniperus, Artemisia, and others). The disappearance or decline of mesophytes, such as Betula from ca 4000 cal yr BP is part of a regional depletion in Mediterranean Spain and elsewhere in Europe from the mid to late Holocene. On the other hand, Castanea sativa increased in Laguna de Río Seco record after ca 4000 cal yr BP, and especially in post-Roman times, probably due to arboriculture. Though not as important at high than at low elevations, fire occurrence was elevated, particularly after ca 3700 years ago, in response to regional human population expansion. The local and regional impact of humans increased substantially after ca 2700 years ago, with the loss of Pinus forest within the mountain range, increases in evidence of pasturing herbivores around the lake, and Olea cultivation at lower elevations. Though human impact was not as extensive at high elevation as at lower elevation sites in southern Iberia, this record confirms that even remote sites were not free of direct human influence during the Holocene.     

Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.     

Seasonal patterns of pollen sedimentation in Lake Montcortès (Central Pyrenees) and potential applications to high-resolution paleoecology: a 2-year pilot study

Lakes with varved sediments are especially well suited for paleoecological study, from annual to even seasonal resolution. The interpretative power of such high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions relies on the availability of modern analogs with the same temporal resolution. We studied seasonal pollen sedimentation in varved Lake Montcortès, Central Pyrenees (Spain), as a modern analog for high-resolution reconstruction of Late Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics. Seasonal samples were obtained from sediment traps that were submerged near the maximum water depth for a 2-year period (fall 2013 to fall 2015). Seasonal pollen sedimentation was compared with meteorological variables from a nearby weather station. Bulk pollen sedimentation, dominated by Pinus (pine) and Quercus (oak), followed a clear seasonal pattern that peaked during the spring/summer, coinciding with maximum temperature and precipitation, minimum relative humidity and moderate winds from the SSE. Pollen sedimentation lags (PSL) were observed for most pollen types, as substantial amounts of pollen were found in the traps outside of their respective flowering seasons. Two pollen assemblages were clearly differentiated by their taxonomic composition, corresponding to spring/summer and fall/winter. This pattern is consistent with existing interpretation of the sediment varves, specifically, that varves are formed by two-layer couplets that represent the same seasonality as pollen. We concluded that pollen sedimentation in Lake Montcortès exhibits a strong seasonal signal in the quantity of pollen, the taxonomic composition of the pollen assembalges, and relationships between the pollen and meteorological variables. Thus, varved sediments provide a potentially powerful tool for paleoecological reconstruction at seasonal resolution. This method could be used not only to identify paleoenvironmental trends, but also to identify annual layers and therefore date sediments, even in the absence of evident sediment laminations. A satisfactory explanation of PSL will require further studies that examine internal lake dynamics and pollen production/dispersal patterns.     

Synthesis of monticellite–forsterite and merwinite–forsterite symplectites in the CaO–MgO–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> model system: influence of temperature and water content on microstructure evolution

Homogeneous single crystals of synthetic monticellite with the composition \({\text{Ca}}_{0.88}{\text{Mg}}_{1.12}{\text{SiO}}_4\) (Mtc I) were annealed in a piston-cylinder apparatus at temperatures between 1000 and \(1200\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\), pressures of 1.0–1.4 GPa, for run durations from 10 min to 24 h and applying bulk water contents ranging from 0.0 to 0.5 wt% of the total charge. At these conditions, Mtc I breaks down to a fine-grained, symplectic intergrowth. Thereby, two types of symplectites are produced: a first symplectite type (Sy I) is represented by an aggregate of rod-shaped forsterite immersed in a matrix of monticellite with end-member composition (Mtc II), and a second symplectite type (Sy II) takes the form of a lamellar merwinite–forsterite intergrowth. Both symplectites may form simultaneously, where the formation of Sy I is favoured by the presence of water. Sy I is metastable with respect to Sy II and is successively replaced by the latter. For both symplectite types, the characteristic spacing of the symplectite phases is independent of run duration and is only weeakly influenced by the water content, but it is strongly temperature dependent. It varies from about 400 nm at \(1000\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) to 1200 nm at \(1100\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) in Sy I, and from 300 nm at \(1000\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) to 700 nm at \(1200\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) in Sy II. A thermodynamic analysis reveals that the temperature dependence of the characteristic spacing of the symplectite phases is due to a relatively high activation energy for chemical segregation by diffusion within the reaction front as compared to the activation energy for interface reactions at the reaction front. The temperature dependence of the characteristic lamellar spacing and the temperature-time dependence of overall reaction progress have potential for applications in geo-thermometry and geo-speedometry.     

Evolving Photospheric Flux Concentrations and Filament Dynamic Changes

We analyze the role of weak photospheric flux concentrations that evolve in a filament channel, in the triggering of dynamic changes in the shape of a filament. The high polarimetric sensitivity of THEMIS allowed us to detect weak flux concentrations (few Gauss) associated with the filament development. The synoptic instruments (MDI, SOLIS) even if their sensitivity is much less than THEMIS were useful to follow any subsequent strengthening of these flux concentrations after their identification in the THEMIS magnetograms. We found that (1) the northern part of the filament develops an Hα barb at the same time that weak minority polarity elements develop near a plage; (2) a section in the southern part of the Hα filament gradually disappears and later reforms at the same time that several mixed-polarity magnetic elements appear, then subsequently cancel or spread away from each other. These changes correspond to increases in EUV emission, as observed by TRACE, EIT, and CDS. This suggests that the plasma is temporarily heated along the filament spine. An idealized sequence of force-free models of this filament channel, based on plasma-supporting magnetic dips occurring in the windings of a very weakly twisted flux tube, naturally explains the evolution of its southern part as being due to changes in the topology of the coronal magnetic field as the photospheric flux concentrations evolve.