A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.     

Consideration of time-correlated errors in a Kalman filter applicable to GNSS

An algorithm for considering time-correlated errors in a Kalman filter is presented. The algorithm differs from previous implementations in that it does not suffer from numerical problems; does not contain inherent time latency or require reinterpretation of Kalman filter parameters, and gives full consideration to additive white noise that is often still present but ignored in previous implementations. Simulation results indicate that the application of the new algorithm yields more realistic and therefore useful state and covariance information than the standard implementation. Results from a field test of the algorithm applied to the problem of kinematic differential GPS demonstrate that the algorithm provides slightly pessimistic covariance estimates whereas the standard Kalman filter provides optimistic covariance estimates.     

LightSquared effects on estimated C/N 0, pseudoranges and positions

We present experimental results showing the impact of the proposed LightSquared (LS) Long-term Evolution (LTE) signals on both GPS and Galileo civil modulations in the L1/E1 band. The experiments were conducted in radiated mode in a large anechoic chamber. Three Galileo enabled receivers were chosen for the tests, and a state of the art GNSS signal generator was used to simulate both GPS and Galileo signals. The LTE signals were generated by an Agilent Programmable Signal Generator with a license to generate the signals according to the 3GPP LTE FDD standard. The interference impact was measured in terms of a Carrier-to-Noise power spectral density ratio (C/N ₀) degradation, in accordance with the methodology which the LS/GPS Technical Working Group (TWG) established by mandate of the FCC. A model for determining the impact of the LS signal on the considered GNSS signals is provided and is validated against experimental data. It is shown that the Galileo E1 Open Service (OS) signal is marginally more susceptible to this form of interference than the GPS L1 C/A signal due to its greater proximity to the lower edge of the L1 band. The impact of LS interference was further analyzed in terms of pseudorange and position errors. Despite its relevance for most GNSS users, this aspect was not considered by the TWG. Measurement and position domain analysis along with the study of the LS impact on the Galileo OS signals are the major contributions. The analysis confirms the results obtained by the TWG and shows that the receiver front-end plays a major role in protecting GNSS signals against RF interference. While it appears that, for now, the LS network will not be deployed, the approach taken and the results obtained herein can be readily adapted for any future terrestrial mobile network that may take the place of LS.     

Effectiveness of fast electron retention in the magnetic cavern during disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry

The loss rate of fast electrons (with an energy much higher than the energy of the plasma electron thermal motion), when they leave a magnetic cavern during a disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry, is studied. The cases of point and volume sources of fast particles have been considered. The plasma density in the cavern is supposed to be low, so that collisions of fast electrons with plasma particles can be neglected. The effect of the electric field on particle motion is neglected because it is assumed that the electric charge particles outgoing from the cavern is compensated by the counter current of plasma conductivity electrons. The dependence of the loss value on the harmonic number and the amplitude of the cavern boundary radius disturbance has been obtained.     

A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the...     

Navigating the Complex Trade-Offs of Pesticide Use on Santa Cruz Island,Galapagos

Pesticide use by farmers on Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos—a perceived adaptation to changing ecological and economic dynamics—has the potential to lead to environmental degradation in an area that is known and valued worldwide for its biodiversity. We survey Santa Cruz farmers to understand motivations for and concerns about pesticide use on the island. Results from farmer surveys are supplemented with interview data to develop the case study of pesticide use on Santa Cruz Island. We then apply a “complex trade-off” framework to explore and navigate the tensions between conservation and livelihoods. We conclude by elaborating the implementation of a participatory certification system, the Participatory Guarantee System, as a possible path for reconciling trade-offs in Santa Cruz, Galapagos.     

Numerical solution to the oblique derivative boundary value problem on non-uniform grids above the Earth topography

The paper presents a numerical solution of the oblique derivative boundary value problem on and above the Earth’s topography using the finite volume method (FVM). It introduces a novel method for constructing non-uniform hexahedron 3D grids above the Earth’s surface. It is based on an evolution of a surface, which approximates the Earth’s topography, by mean curvature. To obtain optimal shapes of non-uniform 3D grid, the proposed evolution is accompanied by a tangential redistribution of grid nodes. Afterwards, the Laplace equation is discretized using FVM developed for such a non-uniform grid. The oblique derivative boundary condition is treated as a stationary advection equation, and we derive a new upwind type discretization suitable for non-uniform 3D grids. The discretization of the Laplace equation together with the discretization of the oblique derivative boundary condition leads to a linear system of equations. The solution of this system gives the disturbing potential in the whole computational domain including the Earth’s surface. Numerical experiments aim to show properties and demonstrate efficiency of the developed FVM approach. The first experiments study an experimental order of convergence of the method. Then, a reconstruction of the harmonic function on the Earth’s topography, which is generated from the EGM2008 or EIGEN-6C4 global geopotential model, is presented. The obtained FVM solutions show that refining of the computational grid leads to more precise results. The last experiment deals with local gravity field modelling in Slovakia using terrestrial gravity data. The GNSS-levelling test shows accuracy of the obtained local quasigeoid model.     

Exploring the spatially varying innovation capacity of the US counties in the framework of Griliches’ knowledge production function: a mixed GWR approach

Griliches’ knowledge production function has been increasingly adopted at the regional level where location-specific conditions drive the spatial differences in knowledge creation dynamics. However, the large majority of such studies rely on a traditional regression approach that assumes spatially homogenous marginal effects of knowledge input factors. This paper extends the authors’ previous work (Kang and Dall’erba in Int Reg Sci Rev, 2015. doi: 10.1177/0160017615572888) to investigate the spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects by using nonparametric local modeling approaches such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed GWR with two distinct samples of the US Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and non-MSA counties. The results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of the knowledge input variables, more specifically for the local and distant spillovers of private knowledge measured across MSA counties. On the other hand, local academic knowledge spillovers are found to display spatially homogenous elasticities in both MSA and non-MSA counties. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each county’s innovation capacity and suggest policy implications for regional innovation strategies.     

Impact of different sampling rates on precise point positioning performance using online processing service

In this study, the effect of different sampling rates (i.e. observation recording interval) on the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions in terms of accurac...     

Uncertainties in modelling future hydrological change over West Africa

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the impact of increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations on the West African monsoon. For this purpose, coupled and time-slice simulations are used. A global measure of the monsoon changes is defined in order to avoid regional biases and to try and obtain significant results. The position and width of the monsoon in latitude are the main focuses. There is almost no agreement between the Coupled General Circulation models from the Coupled models Inter-Comparison project—Phase II in regard to the impact of climate change on the monsoon. Moreover, very simple discriminations between the models seem inappropriate to get a better signal. The role of the different forcings in time-slice simulations is then investigated. The sea surface temperature (SST) and particularly the pattern of the SST are shown to be the most important forcing. This accounts for the diversity of the results either from the coupled or the forced simulations with different SST changes. With a fixed SST, but of a smaller magnitude in AMJ, there are still uncertainties, coming first from the Atmospheric General Circulation models and the way they balance greenhouse gas and global SST increase. Finally the uncertainty due to the Land Surface models (LSMs) is not negligible. The greenhouse gas and the LSMs are shown to have more impact in August, when the monsoon is at its highest latitude on the continent.