Spectral Trends of Solar Bursts at Sub-THz Frequencies

Previous sub-THz studies were derived from single-event observations. We here analyze for the first time spectral trends for a larger collection of sub-THz bursts. The collection consists of a set of 16 moderate to small impulsive solar radio bursts observed at 0.2 and 0.4 THz by the Solar Submillimeter-wave Telescope (SST) in 2012?–?2014 at El Leoncito, in the Argentinean Andes. The peak burst spectra included data from new solar patrol radio telescopes (45 and 90 GHz), and were completed with microwave data obtained by the Radio Solar Telescope Network, when available. We critically evaluate errors and uncertainties in sub-THz flux estimates caused by calibration techniques and the corrections for atmospheric transmission, and introduce a new method to obtain a uniform flux scale criterion for all events. The sub-THz bursts were searched during reported GOES soft X-ray events of class C or larger, for periods common to SST observations. Seven out of 16 events exhibit spectral maxima in the range 5?–?40 GHz with fluxes decaying at sub-THz frequencies (three of them associated to GOES class X, and four to class M). Nine out of 16 events exhibited the sub-THz spectral component. In five of these events, the sub-THz emission fluxes increased with a separate frequency from that of the microwave spectral component (two classified as X and three as M), and four events have only been detected at sub-THz frequencies (three classified as M and one as C). The results suggest that the THz component might be present throughout, with the minimum turnover frequency increasing as a function of the energy of the emitting electrons. The peculiar nature of many sub-THz burst events requires further investigations of bursts that are examined from SST observations alone to better understand these phenomena.     

Reconstruction of the North–South Solar Asymmetry with a Kuramoto Model

This paper applies a Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators to investigate the north–south (N–S) solar asymmetry and properties of meridional circulation. We focus our study on the asymmetry of the 11-year phase, which is slight but persistent: only two changes of sign (around 1928 and 1968) are observed in the past century. We present a model of two non-linear coupled oscillators that links the hemispheric phase asymmetry of sunspots with the asymmetry of the meridional flow. We use a Kuramoto model with evolving frequencies and constant symmetric coupling to show how asymmetry in meridional circulation could produce a persistent phase lead of one solar hemisphere over the other. We associate the natural frequencies of the two oscillators with the velocities of the meridional flow cells in the northern and southern hemispheres. We assume the respective circulations to be independent and estimate the value of the relevant cross-equatorial coupling by the coupling coefficient in the Kuramoto model. We find that a persistent N–S asymmetry of sunspots and the change of the leading hemisphere could indeed both be the result of the evolving frequencies of meridional circulation; the necessary asymmetry of the meridional flow may be small; and the cross-equatorial coupling has an intermediate range value. Possible applications of these results in solar dynamo models are discussed.     

Meridional Motion and Reynolds Stress from Debrecen Photoheliographic Data

The Debrecen Photoheliographic Data catalogue is a continuation of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results providing daily positions of sunspots and sunspot groups. We analyse the data for sunspot groups focussing on meridional motions and transfer of angular momentum towards the solar equator. Velocities are calculated with a daily shift method including an automatic iterative process of removing the outliers. Apart from the standard differential rotation profile, we find meridional motion directed towards the zone of solar activity. The difference in measured meridional flow in comparison to Doppler measurements and some other tracer measurements is interpreted as a consequence of different flow patterns inside and outside of active regions. We also find a statistically significant dependence of meridional motion on rotation velocity residuals confirming the transfer of angular momentum towards the equator. Analysis of horizontal Reynolds stress reveals that the transfer of angular momentum is stronger with increasing latitude up to about \(40^{\circ}\), where there is a possible maximum in absolute value.     

On Flare-CME Characteristics from Sun to Earth Combining Remote-Sensing Image Data with <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Measurements Supported by Modeling

We analyze the well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) from 1 October 2011 (SOL2011-10-01T09:18) covering the complete chain of effects – from Sun to Earth – to better understand the dynamic evolution of the CME and its embedded magnetic field. We study in detail the solar surface and atmosphere associated with the flare and CME using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and ground-based instruments. We also track the CME signature off-limb with combined extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). By applying the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) reconstruction method and total mass to stereoscopic STEREO-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) coronagraph data, we track the temporal and spatial evolution of the CME in the interplanetary space and derive its geometry and 3D mass. We combine the GCS and Lundquist model results to derive the axial flux and helicity of the magnetic cloud (MC) from in situ measurements from Wind. This is compared to nonlinear force-free (NLFF) model results, as well as to the reconnected magnetic flux derived from the flare ribbons (flare reconnection flux) and the magnetic flux encompassed by the associated dimming (dimming flux). We find that magnetic reconnection processes were already ongoing before the start of the impulsive flare phase, adding magnetic flux to the flux rope before its final eruption. The dimming flux increases by more than 25% after the end of the flare, indicating that magnetic flux is still added to the flux rope after eruption. Hence, the derived flare reconnection flux is most probably a lower limit for estimating the magnetic flux within the flux rope. We find that the magnetic helicity and axial magnetic flux are lower in the interplanetary space by ～?50% and 75%, respectively, possibly indicating an erosion process. A CME mass increase of 10% is observed over a range of \({\sim}\,4\,\mbox{--}\,20~\mathrm{R}_{\odot }\). The temporal evolution of the CME-associated core-dimming regions supports the scenario that fast outflows might supply additional mass to the rear part of the CME.     

Forbush Decrease: A New Perspective with Classification

Sudden short-duration decreases in cosmic ray flux, known as Forbush decreases (FDs), are mainly caused by interplanetary disturbances. A generally accepted view is that the first step of an FD is caused by a shock sheath and the second step is due to the magnetic cloud (MC) of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). This simplistic picture does not consider several physical aspects, such as whether the complete shock sheath or MC (or only part of these) contributes to the decrease or the effect of internal structure within the shock-sheath region or MC. We present an analysis of 16 large (\({\geq}\,8 \%\)) FD events and the associated ICMEs, a majority of which show multiple steps in the FD profile. We propose a reclassification of FD events according to the number of steps observed in their respective profiles and according to the physical origin of these steps. This study determines that 13 out of 16 major events (\({\sim}\,81\%\)) can be explained completely or partially on the basis of the classic FD model. However, it cannot explain all the steps observed in these events. Our analysis clearly indicates that not only broad regions (shock sheath and MC), but also localized structures within the shock sheath and MC have a significant role in influencing the FD profile. The detailed analysis in the present work is expected to contribute toward a better understanding of the relationship between FD and ICME parameters.     

Geomagnetic Effects of Corotating Interaction Regions

We present an analysis of the geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions (CIRs), employing the data recorded from 25 January to 5 May 2005 and throughout 2008. These two intervals in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23 are characterised by a particularly low number of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study in detail how four geomagnetic-activity parameters (the Dst, Ap, and AE indices, as well as the Dst time derivative, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\)) are related to three CIR-related solar wind parameters (flow speed, \(V\), magnetic field, \(B\), and the convective electric field based on the southward Geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) magnetic field component, \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\)) on a three-hour time resolution. In addition, we quantify statistical relationships between the mentioned geomagnetic indices. It is found that Dst is correlated best to \(V\), with a correlation coefficient of \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\), whereas there is no correlation between \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) and \(V\). The Ap and AE indices attain peaks about half a day before the maximum of \(V\), with correlation coefficients ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.6\) to \(\mathrm{cc}\approx0.7\), depending on the sample used. The best correlations of Ap and AE are found with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\) with a delay of 3 h, being characterised by \(\mathrm{cc}\gtrsim 0.6\). The Dst derivative \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) is also correlated with \(\mathit{VB}_{s}\), but the correlation is significantly weaker \(\mathrm{cc}\approx 0.4\)?–?0.5, with a delay of 0?–?3 h, depending on the employed sample. Such low values of correlation coefficients indicate that there are other significant effects that influence the relationship between the considered parameters. The correlation of all studied geomagnetic parameters with \(B\) are characterised by considerably lower correlation coefficients, ranging from \(\mathrm{cc}=0.3\) in the case of \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) up to \(\mathrm{cc}=0.56\) in the case of Ap. It is also shown that peak values of geomagnetic indices depend on the duration of the CIR-related structures. The Dst is closely correlated with Ap and AE (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.7\)), Dst being delayed for about 3 h. On the other hand, \(\mathrm{dDst}/\mathrm{d}t\) peaks simultaneously with Ap and AE, with correlation coefficients of 0.48 and 0.56, respectively. The highest correlation (\(\mathrm{cc}=0.81\)) is found for the relationship between Ap and AE.     

Evaluation of four supervised learning methods for groundwater spring potential mapping in Khalkhal region (Iran) using GIS-based features

One important tool for water resources management in arid and semi-arid areas is groundwater potential mapping. In this study, four data-mining models including K-nearest neighbor (KNN), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and quadric discriminant analysis (QDA) were used for groundwater potential mapping to get better and more accurate groundwater potential maps (GPMs). For this purpose, 14 groundwater influence factors were considered, such as altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, slope length, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index, distance from rivers, river density, distance from faults, fault density, land use, and lithology. From 842 springs in the study area, in the Khalkhal region of Iran, 70 % (589 springs) were considered for training and 30 % (253 springs) were used as a validation dataset. Then, KNN, LDA, MARS, and QDA models were applied in the R statistical software and the results were mapped as GPMs. Finally, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was implemented to evaluate the performance of the models. According to the results, the area under the curve of ROCs were calculated as 81.4, 80.5, 79.6, and 79.2 % for MARS, QDA, KNN, and LDA, respectively. So, it can be concluded that the performances of KNN and LDA were acceptable and the performances of MARS and QDA were excellent. Also, the results depicted high contribution of altitude, TWI, slope angle, and fault density, while plan curvature and land use were seen to be the least important factors.     

Groundwater depth prediction in a shallow aquifer in north China by a quantile regression model

There is a close relationship between groundwater level in a shallow aquifer and the surface ecological environment; hence, it is important to accurately simulate and predict the groundwater level in eco-environmental construction projects. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is one of the most useful methods to predict groundwater level (depth); however, the predicted values by this model only reflect the mean distribution of the observations and cannot effectively fit the extreme distribution data (outliers). The study reported here builds a prediction model of groundwater-depth dynamics in a shallow aquifer using the quantile regression (QR) method on the basis of the observed data of groundwater depth and related factors. The proposed approach was applied to five sites in Tianjin city, north China, and the groundwater depth was calculated in different quantiles, from which the optimal quantile was screened out according to the box plot method and compared to the values predicted by the MLR model. The results showed that the related factors in the five sites did not follow the standard normal distribution and that there were outliers in the precipitation and last-month (initial state) groundwater-depth factors because the basic assumptions of the MLR model could not be achieved, thereby causing errors. Nevertheless, these conditions had no effect on the QR model, as it could more effectively describe the distribution of original data and had a higher precision in fitting the outliers.     

Evaluation of bank filtration as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway: results from monitoring at two full-scale sites

Two case studies were carried out in central Norway in order to assess the performance of bank filtration systems in cold-climate fluvial aquifers relying on recharge from humic-rich surface waters with moderate microbial contamination. Three municipal wells and two surface-water sources at operative bank filtration systems were monitored for naturally occurring bacteriophages, fecal indicators, natural organic matter (NOM) and physico-chemical water quality parameters during a 4-month period. Aquifer passage effectively reduced the microorganism and NOM concentrations at both study sites. Bacteriophages were detected in 13 of 16 (81%) surface-water samples and in 4 of 24 (17%) well-water samples, and underwent 3 ± 0.3 log₁₀ reduction after 50–80-m filtration and 20–30 days of subsurface passage. NOM reductions (color: 74–97%; dissolved organic carbon: 54–80%; very hydrophobic acids: 70%) were similar to those achieved by conventional water-treatment processes and no further treatment was needed. Both groundwater dilution and sediment filtration contributed to the hygienic water quality improvements, but sediment filtration appeared to be the most important process with regard to microbial and NOM reductions. A strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis showed that bank filtration technology has a high potential as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway.