Unraveling the patterns of late Holocene debris-flow activity on a cone in the Swiss Alps: Chronology, environment and implications for the future

Debris-flow activity on the forested cone of the Ritigraben torrent (Valais, Swiss Alps) was assessed from growth disturbances in century-old trees, providing an unusually complete record of past events and deposition of material. The study of 2246 tree-ring sequences sampled from 1102 Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Pinus cembra ssp. sibirica trees allowed reconstruction of 123 events since AD 1566. Geomorphic mapping permitted identification of 769 features related to past debris-flow activity on the intermediate cone. The features inventoried in the study area covering 32 ha included 291 lobes, 465 levées and 13 well-developed debris-flow channels. Based on tree-ring records of disturbed trees growing in or next to the deposits, almost 86% of the lobes identified on the present-day surface could be dated. A majority of the dated material was deposited over the last century. Signs of pre-20th century events are often recognizable in the tree-ring record of survivor trees, but the material that caused the growth anomaly in trees has been completely overridden or eroded by more recent debris-flow activity.Tree-ring records suggest that cool summers with frequent snowfalls at higher elevations regularly prevented the release of debris flows between the 1570s and 1860s; the warming trend combined with greater precipitation totals in summer and autumn between 1864 and 1895 provided conditions that were increasingly favorable for releasing events from the source zone. Enhanced debris-flow activity continued well into the 20th century and reconstructions show a clustering of events in the period 1916–1935 when warm–wet conditions prevailed during summer in the Swiss Alps. In contrast, very low activity is observed for the last 10-yr period (1996–2005) with only one debris-flow event recorded on August 27, 2002. Since sediment availability is not a limiting factor, this temporal absence of debris-flow activity is due to an absence of triggering events, which not only shifted from June and July to August and September over the 20th century, but also seemed to be initiated primarily by persistent precipitation rather than summer thunderstorms. From the reconstructions, based on RCM simulations, there are indications that debris-flow frequencies might continue to decrease in the future, as precipitation events are projected to occur less frequently in summer but become more common in spring or autumn.     

The reality of the scaling law of earthquake-source spectra?

Attempts to build a “constant-stress-drop” scaling of an earthquake-source spectrum have invariably met with difficulties. Physically, such a scaling would mean that the low-frequency content of the spectrum would control the high-frequency one, reducing the number of the parameters governing the time history of a shear dislocation to one. This is technically achieved through relationships of the corner frequency of the spectrum to the fault size, inevitably introduced in an arbitrary manner using a constant termed “stress drop”. Throughout decades of observations, this quantity has never proved to be constant. This fact has fundamental physical reasons. The dislocation motion is controlled by two independent parameters: the final static offset and the speed at which it is reached. The former controls the low-frequency asymptote of the spectrum while the latter its high-frequency content. There is no physical reason to believe that the static displacement should predetermine the slip rate, which would be implied if the “stress drop” were constant. Reducing the two parameters to just one (the seismic moment or magnitude) in a “scaling law” has no strict justification; this would necessarily involve arbitrary assumptions about the relationship of one parameter to the other. This explains why the “constant-stress-drop” scaling in seismology has been believed in but never reconciled with the data.     

Indirect air–sea interactions simulated with a coupled turbulence-resolving model

A turbulence-resolving parallelized atmospheric large-eddy simulation model (PALM) has been applied to study turbulent interactions between the humid atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and the salt water oceanic mixed layer (OML). The most energetic three-dimensional turbulent eddies in the ABL–OML system (convective cells) were explicitly resolved in these simulations. This study considers a case of shear-free convection in the coupled ABL–OML system. The ABL–OML coupling scheme used the turbulent fluxes at the bottom of the ABL as upper boundary conditions for the OML and the sea surface temperature at the top of the OML as lower boundary conditions for the ABL. The analysis of the numerical experiment confirms that the ABL–OML interactions involve both the traditional direct coupling mechanism and much less studied indirect coupling mechanism (Garrett Dyn Atmos Ocean 23:19–34, 1996). The direct coupling refers to a common flux-gradient representation of the air–sea exchange, which is controlled by the temperature difference across the air–water interface. The indirect coupling refers to thermal instability of the Rayleigh–Benard convection, which is controlled by the temperature difference across the entire mixed layer through formation of the large convective eddies or cells. The indirect coupling mechanism in these simulations explained up to 45 % of the ABL–OML co-variability on the turbulent scales. Despite relatively small amplitude of the sea surface temperature fluctuations, persistence of the OML cells organizes the ABL convective cells. Water downdrafts in the OML cells tend to be collocated with air updrafts in the ABL cells. The study concludes that the convective structures in the ABL and the OML are co-organized. The OML convection controls the air–sea turbulent exchange in the quasi-equilibrium convective ABL–OML system.     

List of Participants

The possibility of obtaining information about small-scale inhomogenities of the electron component of the local interstellar medium (ISM) is investigated using interstellar scintillation of extragalactic radio sources. We analyze Culgoora array variability data at 80 and 160 MHz for 190 extragalactic radio sources distributed over most of the sky. The variability on time-scales of 1 month-15 years is interpreted as interstellar scintillations in rapidly-moving nearby (less than 150 pc) hot gas near shock waves in the local ISM. All-sky maps of scintillation index m averaged over 3-5 neighbouring sources and over m for time-scales of 1 month (m1) and one or several years (m12) show several maximum values for m. Locations of the maxima are insensitive to the method and number of points used for averaging. The positions of the maxima obtained in different ways agree to within 15-30 degrees on the sky; this is the angular resolution of this method. Two of the three most certain maxima are probably associated with Loop I, and the third coincides with a soft X-ray (0.1 - 0.3 keV) background maximum near the South Galactic Pole. Other less certain scintillation index maxima probably correspond to the Orion starformation region and to a soft X-ray maximum near the North Galactic Pole. A tunnel that is free of gas in the direction l = 240° is indicated by low values of m. The estimated time-scale for interstellar scintillations in these structures in the local ISM is in agreement with the time-scale for the observed radio source variations.     

The nested superblock approach for regional-scale analytic element models

A new approach is presented for improving the computational efficiency of regional-scale ground water models based on the analytic element method (AEM). The algorithm is an extension of the existing "superblock" algorithm, which combines the effects of multiple analytic elements into Laurent series and Taylor series (superblock expansions). With the new "nested superblock" formulation, Laurent series are nested in a hierarchical (quad-tree) data structure with direct mathematical relationships between parent and child superblock coefficients. Nested superblocks significantly accelerate the evaluation of the complex potential and discharge function in models that contain a large number of analytic elements at multiple scales. This evaluation process, the primary computational cost of AEM models, is required to determine the element coefficients, generate contour plots, and trace pathlines. The performance of the nested superblocks is demonstrated with a simplified model based on the Lake Ontario watershed geometry comprising thousands of hydrogeologic features at multiple geographic scales.     

Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its relation to regional climate

Gridded monthly evaporation data for 1958–2006 from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution data set are used to investigate interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation during cold and hot seasons and its relation to regional atmospheric dynamics, sea surface temperature and atmospheric elements of the hydrological cycle. The first EOF mode of Mediterranean evaporation, explaining more than 50% of its total variance, is characterized by the monopole pattern both in winter and summer. However, despite structural similarity, the EOF-1 of Mediterranean evaporation is affected by different climate signals in cold and hot seasons. During winter the EOF-1 is associated with the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. In summer, there is indication of tropical influence on the EOF-1 of Mediterranean evaporation (presumably from Asian monsoon). Both in winter and summer, principal components of EOF-1 demonstrate clear interdecadal signals (with a stronger signature in summer) associated with large sea surface temperature anomalies. The results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that in winter both the meridional wind and the vertical gradient of saturation specific humidity (GSSH) near the sea surface contribute to the interdecadal evaporation signal. In summer, however, it is likely that the signal is more related to GSSH. Our analysis did not reveal significant links between the Mediterranean evaporation and the North Atlantic Oscillation in any season. The EOF-2 of evaporation accounts for 20% (11%) of its total variance in winter (in summer). Both in winter and summer the EOF-2 is characterized by a zonal dipole with opposite variations of evaporation in western and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. This mode is associated presumably with smaller scale (i.e., local) effects of atmospheric dynamics. Seasonality of the leading modes of the Mediterranean evaporation is also clearly seen in the character of their links to atmospheric elements of the regional hydrological cycle. In particular, significant links to precipitation in some regions have been found in winter, but not in summer.     

秘鲁西北部早白垩世Oyotún组火山岩层序、年代学及地球化学特征——对古Farallon板块俯冲作用细节的揭示

Oyotún组火山岩为中安第斯西北缘中生代出露范围最广的一套火山岩,对研究中安第斯早白垩世壳幔相互作用具有重要意义。研究区西部Oyotún组火山岩出露面积小,厚度薄,岩性单一,而东部出露范围大,厚度厚,岩性复杂。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年表明,Oyotún组火山岩时代集中在139.7~131.0Ma之间。主量元素SiO_2含量介于54.44%~72.33%之间,中等富MgO(0.56%~1.55%),偏铝-强过铝,A/CNK=0.98~3.51,富集Cs、Rb、Th、U、Pb和轻稀土元素,无明显Eu异常,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti、P等,具明显的火山弧特征。Oyotún组火山岩εHf(t)值在3.37~8.42之间,且底部εHf(t)值显著低于顶部,指示其可能形成于活动陆缘弧后伸展背景下,由亏损地幔衍生的新生玄武质下地壳,经板片流体作用而产生的低程度部分熔融过程,并受到太古宙古老陆壳物质的混染,其混染程度随时代变新而逐渐减小。