Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the “oceanic channel dynamics” and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.     

Snowpack disrupts relationship between young water fraction and isotope amplitude ratio; approximately one fifth of mountain streamflow less than one year old

Previous “fraction of young water” (F_yw) estimates based on relative annual isotopic amplitudes in precipitation (A_p) and streamflow (A_s) produced low F_yw values in mountain catchments, which is contrary to extensive research that reports rapid water transmission in mountains. This study investigated this discrepancy by testing the effect of snow accumulation on the model that underpins the F_yw method. A Monte-Carlo analysis of simulations for 20,000 randomly-generated catchment model configurations used 10 years of precipitation inputs for the Upper Elbow River catchment in the Rocky Mountains (Alberta, Canada) to model discharge with and without snowpack storage of winter precipitation. Neither direct nor modified precipitation input produced a 1:1 relationship between A_s/A_p and F_yw, undermining the applicability of the original F_yw method in mountain watersheds with large seasonal snow accumulation. With snowpack-modified input a given A_s/A_p ratio corresponds to a range of F_yw values, which can still provide semi-quantitative information. In the small (435 km²) Elbow River catchment a F_yw range of 7–23% supports previous findings of rapid transmission in mountain catchments. Further analysis showed that the improved discharge prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.9) correlates with higher F_yw values and demonstrated that the interannual shifts in δ¹⁸O can be used to estimate of new water (<1 year) fraction in winter streamflow, and the estimate of 20% for the Elbow River further supports rapid transmission in mountain catchments.     

Geochemical Atlas of the Slovak Republic at a scale of 1:1,000,000

The Geochemical Atlas of Slovak Republic (49,036 km²) at a scale of 1 : 1,000,000 was compiled during 1991–1995 together with maps of associated geochemical and ecological features at a scale of 1 :200,000. Investigations were aimed at the evaluation of concentrations and distributions of Al, As, Ba, Be, Ca, Ce, Co, Cd, Cs, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ga, Hg, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Rb, Sb, Se, Sn, Sr, Th, U, V, W, Y, Zn, Zr in groundwater (16,359 samples), stream sediments (24,422 samples), rocks (3839 samples), soils (9892 samples from 4946 profiles; A and C horizons of each profile were sampled) and forest biomass (the foliage of the forest tree species from 3063 plots was sampled). In groundwater field measurements of temperature, pH, conductivity, dissolved O₂, acidity, alkalinity were done. The evaluation was oriented to the natural radioactivity of the Slovak territory as follows: rocks (K, U, Th, U_tot and dose rate, 15,573 reference spectrometric points), radon risk and water (U_nat, ²²⁶Ra, ²²²Rn; 5271 samples). The main objective of the Geochemical Atlas was to construct single-component maps showing concentrations of chemical elements, compounds and measured parameters in the researched media of Slovakia at a scale of 1 : 1,000.000 and to create interactive databases of chemical composition and/or measured parameters of groundwater, biomass, rocks, soils, stream sediments and natural radioactivity, for the entire territory of the Slovak Republic. The single-component maps are not constructed in the part ‘Rocks’, where all the main rocks types of Slovakia are presented in the ‘Map of lithogeochemical rock types of Slovakia at a scale of 1: 500,000’. The edition of six atlases has been planned. In 1997 the first three atlases will appear (Groundwater, Biomass, Natural Radioactivity). Publishing of last three atlases (Rocks, Soils, Stream Sediments) is planned for 1998. Since the analytical works on stream sediments were finished during 1997, it was not possible to present here the results of that part of the Geochemical Atlas.     

Joint inversion of teleseismic P waveforms and surface-wave group velocities from ambient seismic noise in the Bohemian Massif

Joint inversion of teleseismic P-waveforms and local group velocities of surface waves retrieved from ambient seismic noise has been performed to model velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle of the Bohemian Massif. We analysed P-waveforms of 381 teleseismic earthquakes recorded at 54 broadband seismic stations located on the territory of the Czech Republic and in its close surroundings. Group velocities of Rayleigh and Love surface waves were obtained by cross-correlating long-term recordings of seismic noise. The basis for waveform inversion is the well-known methodology of P-to-S receiver functions constructed from converted phases. Due to instabilities in direct inversion of receiver functions caused by the necessity of applying deconvolution, we propose an alternative formulation to fit observed and calculated radial components of P waveforms. The joint inversion is transformed into a search for the minimum of the cost function defined as a weighted sum of waveform and group velocity misfits. With the use of the robust stochastic optimizer (Differential Evolution Algorithm), neither derivatives nor a starting model are needed. The task was solved for 1D layered isotropic models of the crust and the uppermost mantle. We have performed a sequence of inversions with models containing one, two, three and four layers above a half-space. By using statistical criteria (F-test) we were able to select the simplest velocity models satisfying data and representing local geological structures. Complex crustal models are typical for stations located close to boundaries of major tectonic units. The relatively low average P to S wave-velocity ratio is in agreement with the generally accepted view that the BM crust is predominantly felsic.     

Grain boundary and volume diffusion experiments in yttrium aluminium garnet bicrystals at 1,723 K: a miniaturized study

Yb-Y inter-diffusion along a single grain boundary of a synthetic yttrium aluminium garnet (YAG) bicrystal has been studied using analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM). To investigate the diffusion, a thin-film containing Yb as the diffusant was deposited perpendicular to the bicrystal grain boundary by pulsed laser deposition (PLD). Structural properties and their change with time in both the diffusant source and the grain boundary are reported. The diffusion profiles are incorporated in a numerical diffusion model, which is applied to determine the grain boundary diffusion coefficient, D _gb , at 1.723 K it is equal to 3 × 10⁻¹⁵ m²/s. We find that grain boundary diffusion is 4.85 orders of magnitude faster than volume diffusion, which was determined from the same diffusion experiment. This result is discussed in the context of special versus general grain boundaries. Finally, we successfully tested the capability of synchrotron-based nano-X-ray fluorescence analysis to map micro-chemical patterns in two dimensions with sub-micrometre resolution.     

Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America

Ecosystems in biogeographical transition zones, or ecotones, tend to be highly sensitive to climate and can provide early indications of future change. To evaluate recent climatic changes and their impacts in a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America, we analyzed ice phenology records (1975?C2007) for five lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. We observed rapidly decreasing trends of up to 21?days less ice cover, mostly due to later freeze-up and partially due to earlier break-up. To evaluate the local drivers of these lake ice changes, we modeled ice phenology based on local climate data, derived climatic predictors from the models, and evaluated trends in those predictors to determine which were responsible for observed changes in lake ice. November and December temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-in, and recent trends of warming and decreasing snow during these months were consistent with later ice formation. March and April temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-out, but the absence of trends in snow depth during these months, despite concurrent warming, resulted in much weaker trends for ice-out. Recent rates of warming in the Adirondacks are among the highest regionally, although with a different seasonality of changes (early winter > late winter) that is consistent with other lake ice records in the surrounding area. Projected future declines in snow cover could create positive feedbacks and accelerate current rates of ice loss due to warming. Climate sensitivity was greatest for the larger lakes in our study, including Wolf Lake, considered one of the most ecologically intact ??wilderness lakes?? in eastern North America. Our study provides further evidence of climate sensitivity of the boreal-temperate ecotone of eastern North America and points to emergent conservation challenges posed by climate change in legally protected yet vulnerable landscapes like the Adirondack Park.     

Comparative analysis of different underlying surfaces using a high-resolution assimilation dataset in semi-arid areas in China

To study the land surface and atmospheric meteorological characteristics of non-uniform underlying surfaces in the semi-arid area of Northeast China, we use a “High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of the water-energy cycle in China (HRADC)”. The grid points of three different underlying surfaces were selected, and their meteorological elements were averaged for each type (i.e., mixed forest, grassland, and cropland). For 2009, we compared and analyzed the different components of leaf area index (LAI), soil temperature and moisture, surface albedo, precipitation, and surface energy for various underlying surfaces in Northeast China. The results indicated that the LAI of mixed forest and cropland during the summer is greater than 5 m² m^?2 and below 2.5 m² m^?2 for grassland; in the winter and spring seasons, the Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) is below 30%. The soil temperature and moisture both vary greatly. Throughout the year, the mixed forest is dominated by latent heat evaporation; in grasslands and croplands, the sensible heat flux and the latent heat flux are approximately equal, and the GVF contributed more to latent heat flux than sensible heat flux in the summer. This study compares meteorological characteristics between three different underlying surfaces of the semi-arid area of Northeast China and makes up for the insufficiency of purely using observations for the study. This research is important for understanding the water-energy cycle and transport in the semi-arid area.     

GIS-based determination of the mean long-term groundwater recharge in Lower Saxony

This paper presents the findings of a collaborative research project of the Geological Survey of Lower Saxony (NLfB) and the Programme Group Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) of Research Centre Jülich on the GIS-based determination of the mean long-term groundwater recharge in Lower Saxony using high-resolution digital data (Dörhöfer and others 2001). The model calculations were performed on the basis of the water-balance model GROWA (Kunkel and Wendland 2002) with a spatial resolution of 100x100 m². The accuracy of the calculated groundwater recharge values for the period 1961–1990 was verified on the basis of data from gauging stations and displayed a good agreement between observed runoff values and model results.     

BARENTS16: a 1-D velocity model for the western Barents Sea

A minimum 1-D seismic velocity model for routine seismic event location purposes was determined for the area of the western Barents Sea, using a modified version of the VELEST code. The resulting model, BARENTS16, and corresponding station corrections were produced using data from stations at regional distances, the vast majority located in the periphery of the recorded seismic activity, due to the unfavorable land–sea distribution. Recorded seismicity is approached through the listings of a joint bulletin, resulting from the merging of several international and regional bulletins for the region, as well as additional parametric data from temporary deployments. We discuss the challenges posed by this extreme network-seismicity geometry in terms of velocity estimation resolution and result stability. Although the conditions do not facilitate the estimation of meaningful station corrections at the farthermost stations, and even well-resolved corrections do not have a convincing contribution, we show that the process can still converge to a stable velocity average for the crust and upper mantle, in good agreement with a priori information about the regional structure and geology, which reduces adequately errors in event location estimates.     

Estimation of air-overpressure produced by blasting operation through a neuro-genetic technique

Blasting operations usually produce significant environmental problems which may cause severe damage to the nearby areas. Air-overpressure (AOp) is one of the most important environmental impacts of blasting operations which needs to be predicted and subsequently controlled to minimize the potential risk of damage. In order to solve AOp problem in Hulu Langat granite quarry site, Malaysia, three non-linear methods namely empirical, artificial neural network (ANN) and a hybrid model of genetic algorithm (GA)–ANN were developed in this study. To do this, 76 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured in the site. The most influential parameters on AOp namely maximum charge per delay and the distance from the blast-face were considered as model inputs or predictors. Using the five randomly selected datasets and considering the modeling procedure of each method, 15 models were constructed for all predictive techniques. Several performance indices including coefficient of determination (R ²), root mean square error and variance account for were utilized to check the performance capacity of the predictive methods. Considering these performance indices and using simple ranking method, the best models for AOp prediction were selected. It was found that the GA–ANN technique can provide higher performance capacity in predicting AOp compared to other predictive methods. This is due to the fact that the GA–ANN model can optimize the weights and biases of the network connection for training by ANN. In this study, GA–ANN is introduced as superior model for solving AOp problem in Hulu Langat site.