Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay: Physical and Chemical Evolution

Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is a large (around 18,000 km²) and shallow (few meters deep) lagoon located east of the Caspian Sea. Its water surface was several meters to several dozens cm lower than in the Caspian Sea, so water flows from the Caspian Sea through a narrow strait into the bay, where it evaporates. Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is one of the saltiest bodies of water in the world; its water salinity amounts to 270–300 g/l. Different kinds of salts available in this natural evaporative basin has been used commercially since at least the 1920s. In March 1980, in order to decelerate a continuous fall of the Caspian Sea level, which in 1977 was the lowest over the last 400 years (?29 m), the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Strait was dammed. In response to this human intervention, the bay had already dried up completely by November 1983. In 1992, the dam was destroyed, and Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay had been filling up with the Caspian Sea water at a rate of about 1.7 m/year up to 1996 as observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry mission. Since then, Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay level evolution with characteristic seasonal and interannual oscillations has been similar to that of the Caspian Sea. Physical and chemical evolution of the bay in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is traced in detail in the paper.     

Structure and age of lower structural unit of Taukha terrane of Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous accretionary prism,southern Sikhote–Alin

Specific data is presented on structure and age of the sedimentary formations within the lower structural unit (Erdagou Formation) in the Taukha terrane, southern Sikhote–Alin, Russia. According to lithological research of this unit exposed in the Benevka River area, the Erdagou Formation represents a deformed fragment of so‐called Oceanic Plate Stratigraphy sequence. The Erdagou Formation includes all lithological varieties of rocks from pelagic (cherts and clayey cherts) and hemipelagic (siliceous mudstones) up to oceanic‐margin (mudstones, siltstones, and turbidites) deposits. Based on the results of radiolarian biostratigraphic research of the rocks, the age of the cherts is from middle Oxfordian to the beginning of Berriasian. Transitive layers between cherts and terrigenous rocks (turbidites), namely siliceous mudstones, are early Berriasian in age. The lower part of the terrigenous section is characterized by late Berriasian–late Valanginian radiolarians. Taking these data into account, it is plausible that the accretion of the given part of the paleo‐oceanic plate occurred post‐Valanginian.     

Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products

Spatiotemporal patterns of recent (1979–2008) air temperature trends are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. We test the robustness of arctic tropospheric warming based on the ERA-40 dataset. ERA-40 Arctic atmosphere temperatures tend to be closer to the observed ones in terms of root mean square error compared to other reanalysis products used in the article. However, changes in the ERA-40 data assimilation procedure produce unphysical jumps in atmospheric temperatures, which may be the likely reason for the elevated tropospheric warming trend in 1979–2002. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the near-surface upward temperature trend over the same period is greater than the tropospheric trend, which is consistent with direct radiosonde observations and inconsistent with ERA-40 results. A change of sign in the winter temperature trend from negative to positive in the late 1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic, based on radiosonde data. This change from cooling to warming tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. This temporal pattern is consistent with multi-decadal variations of key arctic climate parameters like, for example, surface air temperature and oceanic freshwater content. Elucidating the mechanisms behind these changes will be critical to understanding the complex nature of high-latitude variability and its impact on global climate change.     

Some Statistics of the Temperature Structure Parameter in the Convective Boundary Layer Observed by Sodar

The characteristics of the temporal and height variations of the temperature structure parameter $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in strongly convective situations derived from the sodar echo-signal intensity measurements were analyzed for the first 100 m. It was corroborated that the probability density function (pdf) of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in the lower convective boundary layer is markedly non-Gaussian, whereas turbulence theory predicts it to be normal. It was also corroborated that the sum of two weighted Gaussians, which characterize the statistics of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within convective plumes and in their environment and the probability of plume occurrence, well approximates the observed pdfs. It was shown that the height behaviour of the arithmetic mean of $ C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within plumes) follows well a power law $C_\mathrm{T}^{2} (z) \sim z^{-q}$ with the exponent $q$ close to the theoretically predicted value of 4/3. But for the geometrical means of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within the plumes), $q$ is close to 1. The difference between arithmetically and geometrically averaged $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ profiles was analyzed. The vertical profiles of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ pdfs were analyzed to show their steady behaviour with height. The standard deviations of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within the plumes and between them are similar and are 1.5 times less than the total standard deviation. The estimate of the variability index $F_\mathrm{T}$ and its height behaviour were obtained, which can be useful to validate some theoretical and modelling predictions. The vertical profiles of the skewness and kurtosis show the negative asymmetry of pdfs and their flatness, respectively. The spectra of variations in $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ are shown to be satisfactorily fitted by the power law $f^{-\gamma } $ in the frequency range 0.02 and 0.2 Hz, with the average exponent $\approx $ 1.27  $\pm $  0.22.     

Multiple prediction using the homeomorphic-imaging technique

A new method for predicting different kinds of multiples and peg-leg reflections in unstacked seismic data is discussed. The basis for this method is the fact that kinematic properties of multiples can be represented as a combination of kinematic properties of primary reflections. The prediction is made using a two-step process. In the first step, the values for the angle of emergence and radius of curvature of the wavefront for primary reflections from ‘multiple-generating’ interfaces are obtained. These parameters are estimated directly from unstacked data for every source point using the homeomorphic-imaging technique. The second step consists of prediction of multiples from primary reflections that satisfy a so-called ‘multiple condition’. This condition is the equality of the absolute values of the angles of emergence calculated from the first step. This method is effective even in complex media and information on the subsurface geology is not required. The parameters are estimated directly from the unstacked data and do not require any computational efforts such as in wavefield extrapolation of data.     

The Estimation of the Cavity Effect by Higher Degree Finite Element Approximation

The measurements of tide-induced tilts and deformations are usually performed in underground cavities (mostly man-made). Therefore, the data obtained must be debugged of the influence of the cavity itself (cavity effect) and of the effect of elastic parameter inhomogeneities in the vicinity of the point of measurement (geological effect), if they are to he presented. Since these effects are reflected as a modulation of tidal waves (in both amplitude and phase), the only way to perform this can be modelling of the strain and stress field around the cavity as precisely as possible. The finite element method (F.E.M.) seems to be a very useful tool for this purpose. To justify some conclusions in this paper, a number of numerical runs of the F.E.M. models of the tide-induced strains and stresses (in two dimensions) were performed. A higher degree of approximation (up to the value of 7) was used in these calculations. To estimate the cavity effect, the correction factors (relative changes of particular strain components due to the presence of the cavity) were determined and plotted in the cavity's close neighbourhood. The distribution of the deformation energy (and also the work of external forces) over the whole domain of interest is given, and the conclusions for subsequent error estimation are drawn. An attempt was made to compare the real tilt data to the theoretical deduced from the numerical model.     

Statistical theory of thermal instability

A new statistical approach is presented to study the thermal instability of an optically thin unmagnetized plasma. In the framework of this approach the time evolution of the mass distribution function over temperature φ( T ) is calculated. Function φ( T ) characterizes the statistical properties of the multiphase medium of arbitrarily spaced three-dimensional structure of arbitrary (small or large) temperature perturbations. We construct our theory under the isobarical condition ( P  = constant over space), which is satisfied in the short-wavelength limit of the perturbations. The developed theory is illustrated for the case of the thermal instability of a slowly expanding interstellar cloud (smooth scenario). Numerical solutions of equations of the statistical theory are constructed and compared with hydrodynamical solutions. The results of both approaches are identical in the short-wavelength range when the isobarity condition is satisfied. Also the limits of applicability of the statistical theory are estimated. The possible evolution of the initial spectrum of perturbations is discussed. The proposed theory and numerical models can be relevant to the formation of the two-phase medium in the ∼ 1 pc region around quasars. Then small warm ( T  ≃ 10⁴  K ) clouds are formed as the result of thermal instability in an expanded gas fragment, which is a product of either star–star or star–accretion disc collision.     

Sergej Zilitinkevich (13.4.1936–15.2.2021)

Boundary-Layer Meteorology -