Jupiter's obliquity and a long-lived circumplanetary disk

It has been claimed [Canup, R.M., Ward, W.R., 2002. Astron. J. 124, 3404-3423; Ward, W.R., 2003. In: AGU, Fall Meeting 2003] that a long-lived minimum mass circumplanetary gas disk is inconsistent with Jupiter's low obliquity. Here we find that while Jupiter's obliquity may constrain its characteristics it does not rule out a long-lived massive (compared to the mass of the Galilean satellites) disk. This is because the argument assumes a Solar System much like that of the present day with the one exception of a circumjovian disk which is then allowed to dissipate on a long timescale (¹⁰⁶-¹⁰⁷ yr). Given that the sequence of events in Solar System history that fit known constraints is non-unique, we choose for the sake of clarity of exposition the orbital architecture framework of Tsiganis et al. [Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461], in which Jupiter and Saturn were once in compact, nearly coplanar orbits, and show that in this case Jupiter's low obliquity is consistent with the SEMM (solids-enhanced minimum mass) satellite formation model of Mosqueira and Estrada [Mosqueira, I., Estrada, P.R., 2003a. Icarus 163, 198-231; Mosqueira, I., Estrada, P.R., 2003b. Icarus 163, 232-255]. We suggest that a low inclination starting condition may apply, but stress that our SEMM satellite formation model could be compatible with Jupiter's obliquity even for mutually inclined giant planets.     

A gas-poor planetesimal capture model for the formation of giant planet satellite systems

Assuming that an unknown mechanism (e.g., gas turbulence) removes most of the subnebula gas disk in a timescale shorter than that for satellite formation, we develop a model for the formation of regular (and possibly at least some of the irregular) satellites around giant planets in a gas-poor environment. In this model, which follows along the lines of the work of Safronov et al. [1986. Satellites. Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 89-116], heliocentric planetesimals collide within the planet's Hill sphere and generate a circumplanetary disk of prograde and retrograde satellitesimals extending as far out as ∼RH/2. At first, the net angular momentum of this proto-satellite swarm is small, and collisions among satellitesimals leads to loss of mass from the outer disk, and delivers mass to the inner disk (where regular satellites form) in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years. This mass loss may be offset by continued collisional capture of sufficiently small <1 km interlopers resulting from the disruption of planetesimals in the feeding zone of the giant planet. As the planet's feeding zone is cleared in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years, enough angular momentum may be delivered to the proto-satellite swarm to account for the angular momentum of the regular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. This feeding timescale is also roughly consistent with the independent constraint that the Galilean satellites formed in a timescale of ¹⁰⁵-¹⁰⁶ years, which may be long enough to accommodate Callisto's partially differentiated state [Anderson et al., 1998. Science 280, 1573; Anderson et al., 2001. Icarus 153, 157-161]. In turn, this formation timescale can be used to provide plausible constraints on the surface density of solids in the satellitesimal disk (excluding satellite embryos for satellitesimals of size ∼1 km), which yields a total disk mass smaller than the mass of the regular satellites, and means that the satellites must form in several ∼10 collisional cycles. However, much more work will need to be conducted concerning the collisional evolution both of the circumplanetary satellitesimals and of the heliocentric planetesimals following giant planet formation before one can assess the significance of this agreement. Furthermore, for enough mass to be delivered to form the regular satellites in the required timescale one may need to rely on (unproven) mechanisms to replenish the feeding zone of the giant planet. We compare this model to the solids-enhanced minimum mass (SEMM) model of Mosqueira and Estrada [2003a. Icarus 163, 198-231; 2003b. Icarus 163, 232-255], and discuss its main consequences for Cassini observations of the saturnian satellite system.     

Intercomparison of measurements of bulk snow density and water equivalent of snow cover with snow core samplers: Instrumental bias and variability induced by observers

Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler.     

Depth of closure: New calculation method based on sediment data

Obtaining depth of closure (DoC) in an accurate manner is a fundamental issue for coastal engineering, since good results for coastal structures and beach nourishment depend mainly on DoC. Currently, there are two methods for obtaining the DoC, mathematical formulations and profile surveys. However, these methods can incur important errors if one does not take into account the characteristics and morphology of the area, or if one does not have a sufficiently long time series. In this work the DoC is obtained from the break in the trend of the sediment with the depth, that is, in general with the increase of the depth a decrease in the size of the sediment takes place. However, at one point this tendency changes and the size increases, and then decreases again. When comparing the point where the minimum sediment size occurs before the increase, it is observed that the error incurred is small compared to other methods. If the Standard Deviation of Depth Change (SDDC) method is considered as the most accurate method, the error incurred by the proposed method is less than 7%. In addition, it can be seen that the dispersion of the sediment method always occurs outside the zone of bar movement. Whereas in the methods of profiles survey (using 2 cm precision profiles), sometimes the DoC is obtained within the active zone of bar movement. In addition, where the relative minimum of the median sediment size is found, and the sizes of 0.063 and 0.125 mm predominate in the composition of the sample. Therefore, this new method allows the precise location of the DoC to be obtained in a fast and simple way. Furthermore, this method has the advantage that it is not affected by the modifications that may be experienced by both the study area and the cross-shore beach profile.     

Real‐time distributed hybrid testing: coupling geographically distributed scientific equipment across the Internet to extend seismic testing capabilities

Large‐scale testing and qualification of structural systems and their components is crucial for the development of earthquake engineering knowledge and practice. However, laboratory capacity is often limited when attempting larger experiments due to the sheer size of the structures involved. To overcome traditional laboratory capacity limitations, we present a new earthquake engineering testing method: real‐time distributed hybrid testing. Extending current approaches, the technique enables geographically distributed scientific equipment including controllers, dynamic actuators and sensors to be coupled across the Internet in real‐time. As a result, hybrid structural emulations consisting of physical and numerical substructures need no longer be limited to a single laboratory. Larger experiments may distribute substructures across laboratories located in different cities whilst maintaining correct dynamic coupling, required to accurately capture physical rate effects. The various aspects of the distributed testing environment have been considered. In particular, to ensure accurate control across an environment not designed for real‐time testing, new higher level control protocols are introduced acting over an optimised communication system. New large time‐step prediction algorithms are used, capable of overcoming both local actuation and distributed system delays. An overview of the architecture and algorithms developed is presented together with results demonstrating a number of current capabilities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An ecohydrological approach to predicting regional woody species distribution patterns in dryland ecosystems

This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.