SHIA_Landslide: a distributed conceptual and physically based model to forecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins

Landslides are a main cause of human and economic losses worldwide. For this reason, landslide hazard assessment and the capacity to predict this phenomenon have been topics of great interest within the scientific community for the implementation of early warning systems. Although several models have been proposed to forecast shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, few models have incorporated geotechnical factors into a complete hydrological model of a basin that can simulate the storage and movement of rainwater through the soil profile. These basin and full hydrological models have adopted a physically based approach. This paper develops a conceptual and physically based model called open and distributed hydrological simulation and landslides—SHIA_Landslide (Simulación HIdrológica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish)—that is supported by geotechnical and hydrological features occurring on a basin-wide scale in tropical and mountainous terrains. SHIA_Landslide is an original and significant contribution that offers a new perspective with which to analyse shallow landslide processes by incorporating a comprehensive distributed hydrological tank model that includes water storage in the soil coupled with a classical analysis of infinite slope stability under saturated conditions. SHIA_Landslide can be distinguished by the following: (i) its capacity to capture surface topography and effects concerning the subsurface flow; (ii) its use of digital terrain model (DTM) to establish the relationships among cells, geomorphological parameters, slope angle, direction, etc.; (iii) its continuous simulation of rainfall data over long periods and event simulations of specific storms; (iv) its consideration of the effects of horizontal and vertical flow; and (vi) its inclusion of a hydrologically complete water process that allows for hydrological calibration. SHIA_Landslide can be combined with real-time rainfall data and implemented in early warning systems.     

The 1.5-ka varved record of Lake Montcortès (southern Pyrenees,NE Spain)

The karstic Lake Montcortès sedimentary sequence spanning the last 1548 yr constitutes the first continuous, high-resolution, multi-proxy varved record in northern Spain. Sediments consist of biogenic varves composed of calcite, organic matter and detrital laminae and turbidite layers. Calcite layer thickness and internal sub-layering indicate changes in water temperature and seasonality whereas the frequency of detrital layers reflects rainfall variability. Higher temperatures occurred in Lake Montcortès in AD 555–738, 825–875, 1010–1322 and 1874–present. Lower temperatures and prolonged winter conditions were recorded in AD 1446–1598, 1663–1711 and 1759–1819. Extreme and multiple precipitation events dominated in AD 571–593, 848–922, 987–1086, 1168–1196, 1217–1249, 1444–1457, 1728–1741 and 1840–1875, indicating complex hydrological variability in NE Spain since AD 463. The sedimentary record of Lake Montcortès reveals a short-term relation between rainfall variability and the detrital influx, pronounced during extended periods of reduced anthropogenic influences. In pre-industrial times, during warm climate episodes, population and land use increased in the area. After the onset of the industrialization, the relationship between climate and human activities decoupled and population dynamics and landscape modifications were therefore mostly determined by socio‐economic factors.     

Climate changes and human activities recorded in the sediments of Lake Estanya (NE Spain) during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age

A multi-proxy study of short sediment cores recovered in small, karstic Lake Estanya (42°02?? N, 0°32?? E, 670 m.a.s.l.) in the Pre-Pyrenean Ranges (NE Spain) provides a detailed record of the complex environmental, hydrological and anthropogenic interactions occurring in the area since medieval times. The integration of sedimentary facies, elemental and isotopic geochemistry, and biological proxies (diatoms, chironomids and pollen), together with a robust chronological control, provided by AMS radiocarbon dating and ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radiometric techniques, enabled precise reconstruction of the main phases of environmental change, associated with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the industrial era. Shallow lake levels and saline conditions with poor development of littoral environments prevailed during medieval times (1150?C1300 AD). Generally higher water levels and more dilute waters occurred during the LIA (1300?C1850 AD), although this period shows a complex internal paleohydrological structure and is contemporaneous with a gradual increase of farming activity. Maximum lake levels and flooding of the current littoral shelf occurred during the nineteenth century, coinciding with the maximum expansion of agriculture in the area and prior to the last cold phase of the LIA. Finally, declining lake levels during the twentieth century, coinciding with a decrease in human pressure, are associated with warmer climate conditions. A strong link with solar irradiance is suggested by the coherence between periods of more positive water balance and phases of reduced solar activity. Changes in winter precipitation and dominance of NAO negative phases would be responsible for wet LIA conditions in western Mediterranean regions. The main environmental stages recorded in Lake Estanya are consistent with Western Mediterranean continental records, and show similarities with both Central and NE Iberian reconstructions, reflecting a strong climatic control of the hydrological and anthropogenic changes during the last 800 years.     

Decoupling the host and nuclear spectra of type I AGNs using integral field spectroscopy: A test on 3C 120

We have developed a new technique to decouple the spectra of the host and the nucleus of type I AGNs using integral field spectroscopy data. The technique is a simple extension of methods widely tested in 2D imaging. We present here the results from applying the technique to data taken with INTEGRAL at the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope on the Seyfert 1 radio-galaxy 3C 120. We obtained, for the first time, a clean spectrum of the host galaxy, without contamination from the nuclear source.     

Recovery simulations of grossly polluted sediments in the Bilbao Estuary

The Bilbao Estuary is one of the most contaminated estuaries on the north coast of Spain, and vast efforts have been made to abate pollution there. In fact, the local water authority has forecast a biological recovery of the native fauna after a substantial increase in dissolved oxygen to normoxic levels. In order to assess this prediction by evaluating the extent of natural regeneration of these polluted sediments, two long-term bioassays (t=90 d) were performed. In both of them, lethal (differences in survival) and sublethal (differences in length and weight growth) effects were measured by using juvenile individuals of the autochthonous clam, Scrobicularia plana (Da Costa, 1778). The sediments tested differed in pollution levels, as measured by a set of indicators including PAHs, PCBs, heavy metals, volatile organic matter and coprostanol. All sediments were finally exposed to normoxic conditions in situ in the Bilbao Estuary (DO approximately 6.3 mg l(-1)). In the first experiment, concerning moderately polluted sediments from the Bilbao Estuary and reference sediments from the "pristine" Plentzia Estuary, no significant differences (P>0.05) were found regarding animal survival (approximately 94.5%) or growth in length or weight between the sediments tested. In the second experiment, also involving grossly polluted sediments (GPS) from the Bilbao Estuary, survival (24.5%) was statistically lower (P<0.05) than in the other sediments (approximately 93%). No significant differences were found in growth (length, weight) between animals exposed to moderately polluted or reference sediments. We interpret this dramatic difference in survival as the lethal effect on the animals tested of the GPS of the Bilbao Estuary, indicating a situation where biological recovery is not possible due to the adverse consequences of contaminants sorbed into sediments. The extensive use of this inexpensive bioassay could help to distinguish sediments in which homeostatic recovery is possible from grossly polluted "hot spots", which need costly remedial actions.