Developing models and envelope curves for extreme floods in the Saudi Arabia arid environment

Forecasting and monitoring extreme floods in arid regions like Saudi Arabia (SA) are a big challenge for engineers and hydrologists. It is difficult to derive reliable flood estimates at any site without adequate flood measurements. Therefore, envelope curves were developed for reliable estimates of flood peaks. Relaying on recorded flood events in SA, Francou–Rodier approach is used to develop the Regional Maximum Flood (RMF) for some wadis and for SA as a whole. A total of 3121 flood events in 32 arid basins of sizes varying from 99 to more than 4500 km² are collected and analyzed. Results show that established regional coefficients (K) range between 2.76 and 5.5. The RMF formula for the Saudi regions is Q?=?251 A^0.45. The flood-frequency analysis showed that the Log-Pearson Type III is best. The extreme observed floods for the envelope curve for K?=?5.5 accommodate floods of recurrence interval ranging between 1000 and 100,000 years. The study results provide more realistic runoff peaks for a design of flood protection works for SA watersheds and for the similar environment. Consequently, it is recommended to use the developed envelope curves and models for efficient, safe and precise hydraulic structures design in SA.     

Spectral wheat yield prediction modeling using SPOT satellite imagery and leaf area index

As wheat represents the main staple food and strategic crop in Egypt and worldwide and since remote sensing satellite imagery is the tool to obtain synoptic, multi-temporal, dynamic, and time-efficient information about any target on the Earth, the main objective of the current study is to use remote sensing satellite imagery to generate remotely sensed empirical preharvest wheat yield prediction models. The main input parameters of these models are spectral data either in the form of spectral reflectance data released from Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) 4 satellite imagery or in the form of spectral vegetation indices. The other input factor is leaf area index (LAI) that was measured by LAI Plant Canopy Analyzer. The four spectral bands of SPOT4 imagery are green, red, near-infrared, and middle infrared; the five vegetation indices that are forms of ratios between red and near-infrared bands are normalized difference vegetation index, ratio vegetation index, soil-adjusted vegetation index, difference vegetation index, and infrared percentage vegetation index. Another vegetation index is green vegetation index that is calculated through a ratio between green band and near-infrared band. Each of the above-mentioned factors was used as an input factor against wheat yield to generate wheat yield prediction models. All generated models are site-specific limited to the area and the environment and could be applicable under similar conditions in Egypt. The study was carried out in Sakha experimental station by using the dataset from two wheat season 2007/2008 and 2009/2010. The total wheat area was 1.3 ha cultivated by Sakha 93 cultivar. Modeling and validation process were carried out for each season independently. Modeled yield was tested against reported yield through two common statistical tests; the standard error of estimate between modeled yield and reported yield, and the correlation coefficient for a direct regression analysis between modeled and reported yield with each generated model. Generally, as shown from the correlation coefficient of the generated models, green and middle infrared bands did not show good accuracy to predict wheat yield, while the other spectral bands (red and near-infrared) bands showed high accuracy and sufficiency to predict yield. This was proven through the correlation coefficient of the generated models and through the generated models with the wheat crops for the two seasons. Accordingly, the green vegetation index that is generally calculated from green and near-infrared bands showed relatively lower accuracy than the rest of the vegetation index models that are calculated from red and near-infrared bands. LAI showed high accuracy to predict yield as shown from the statistical analysis. The models are applicable after 90 days from sowing stage and applicable in similar regions with the same conditions.     

Geophysical signature of the vien-type uranium mineralization of Wadi Eishimbai, Southern Eastern Desert, Egypt

The application of various geophysical tools with different responses succeeded in fixing U-mineralization in Wadi Eishimbai area. The area was studied using detailed ground spectrometric, magnetic, and filtered very low-frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM) surveys. The interpretation of the obtained spectrometric maps clearly reflects the sharp increase of equivalent uranium (eU) content. Meanwhile, K and Th contents show sharp decreases. The eU/equivalent thorium (eTh) ratio correlates positively with eU concentrations and negatively with eTh concentrations, indicating an increase in U potentiality than the surrounding granite. The N?CS shear zone displays an eU content ranging from 20 to 140?ppm. The ENE-trending lamprophyre is characterized by elongated uranium anomalies trending in the E?CW direction, with values >90?ppm. Equivalent uranium content of the brecciated granite attains values up to 700?ppm. The ground magnetic and VLF-EM surveys played important roles in providing structural information which are proven useful in geological mapping and mineral exploration for the discovery of uranium mineralization in the study area. This study follows the expected subsurface extension of the Sela shear zone under Wadi sediments. The ground total magnetic intensity map shows a relatively narrow and an elongated shape for the lamprophyre anomaly extending for about 600?m in the Wadi toward the western direction. VLF-EM contour maps of the two used frequencies (17.1 and 28.5?kHz) show excellent agreement, indicating that the shear zone is distinguished with slightly strong conductivity westwards as an extension of the main shear zone. It is elongated in an ENE?CWSW trend and extends in the western direction, referring to the existence of conductive materials. Most of the NW/SE-trending faults cause sudden changes in the magnetic and VLF-EM contour spacing over an appreciable distance, which suggests a discontinuity in depth due to their left-lateral strike-slip displacements. The interpreted faults, with an ENE?CWSW trend representing the main trend of Sela shear zone through which hydrothermal solutions flowed, cause high alteration and uranium mineralization.     

The Lake Manzala of Egypt: an ambiguous future

The Lake Manzala of Egypt has a relatively short history and its future, however, is uncertain. The lake which was the biggest coastal wetland along the Mediterranean Coast is moving toward its disappearance by two opposite forces, one of them is the shrinking of the water body by siltation of sediments coming from agricultural lands and the abundance of weeds and swamp vegetation as well as the drying practices for agriculture, whereas the other force incorporates the removal of the coastal sand bar separating the lake from the Mediterranean Sea by erosion, which should eventually lead to the conversion of the lake into a coastal embayment instead of being a closed coastal lagoon. The study provided a spatiotemporal change analysis of the lake using remotely sensed data.     

Petroleum system analysis of the Khatatba Formation in the Shoushan Basin,north Western Desert,Egypt

The Middle Jurassic Khatatba Formation is an attractive petroleum exploration target in the Shoushan Basin, north Western Desert, Egypt. However, the Khatatba petroleum system with its essential elements and processes has not been assigned yet. This study throws the lights on the complete Khatatba petroleum system in the Shoushan Basin which has been evaluated and collectively named the Khatatba-Khatatba (!) petroleum system. To evaluate the remaining hydrocarbon potential of the Khatatba system, its essential elements were studied, in order to determine the timing of hydrocarbon generation, migration and accumulation. Systematic analysis of the petroleum system of the Khatatba Formation has identified that coaly shales and organic-rich shales are the most important source rocks. These sediments are characterised by high total organic matter content and have good to excellent hydrocarbon generative potential. Kerogen is predominantly types II–III with type III kerogen. The Khatatba source rocks are mature and, at the present time, are within the peak of the oil window with vitrinite reflectance values in the range of 0.81 to 1.08 % Ro. The remaining hydrocarbon potential is anticipated to exist mainly in stratigraphic traps in the Khatatba sandstones which are characterised by fine to coarse grain size, moderate to well sorted. It has good quality reservoir with relatively high porosity and permeability values ranging from 1 to 17 % and 0.05–1,000 mD, respectively. Modelling results indicated that hydrocarbon generation from the Khatatba source rocks began in the Late Cretaceous time and peak of hydrocarbon generation occurred during the end Tertiary time (Neogene). Hydrocarbon primarily migrated from the source rock via fractured pathways created by abnormally high pore pressures resulting from hydrocarbon generation. Hydrocarbon secondarily migrated from active Khatatba source rocks to traps side via vertical migration pathways through faults resulting from Tertiary tectonics during period from end Oligocene to Middle Miocene times.     

Landslide hazard mapping in the Constantine city,Northeast Algeria using frequency ratio,weighting factor,logistic regression,weights of evidence,and analytical hierarchy process methods

Landslides constitute the most widespread and damaging natural hazards in the Constantine city. They represent a significant constraint to development and urban planning. In order to reduce the risk related to potential landslide, there is a need to develop a comprehensive landslide hazard map (LHM) of the area for an efficient disaster management and for planning development activities. The purpose of this research is to prepare and compare the LHMs of the Constantine city, by applying frequency ratio (FR), weighting factor (Wf), logistic regression (LR), weights of evidence (WOE), and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods used in a framework of the geographical information system (GIS). Firstly, a landslide inventory map has been prepared based on the interpretation of aerial photographs, high resolution satellite images, fieldwork, and available literature. Secondly, eight landslide-conditioning factors such as lithology, slope, exposure, rainfall, land use, distance to drainage, distance to road, and distance to fault have been considered to establish LHMs using the FR, Wf, LR, WOE, and AHP models in GIS. For verification, the obtained LHMs have been validated comparing the LHMs with the known landslide locations using the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC). The validated results indicate that the FR method provides more accurate prediction (86.59 %) of LHMs than the WOE (82.38 %), AHP (77.86 %), Wf (77.58 %), and LR (70.45 %) models. On the other hand, the obtained results showed that all the used models in this study provided a good accuracy in predicting landslide hazard in Constantine city. The established maps can be used as useful tools for risk prevention and land use planning in the Constantine region.     

Assessing groundwater storage changes in the Nubian aquifer using GRACE data

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level two (L2) data is used in estimating the groundwater storage changes (GWSC) in the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). This set of data consists of spherical harmonics coefficients with specific degree and order. The GRACE data is de-correlated using a sixth degree polynomial in order to reduce the effect of the noise error resulting from the correlation between the spherical harmonics coefficients with the same degree parity. The GRACE estimates of GWSC are smoothed using Gaussian filter with half width of 1000 km. This half width is chosen in order to maximize the correlation between the GRACE estimates of GWSC and previous modeling results of the NSAS. The loss in groundwater storage occurring in each of the four countries sharing the NSAS is calculated to assess the sustainability of using the NSAS as a water resource in each country. The overarching finding in this study is that NSAS is losing its groundwater storage at a very high rate. Also, it is found that Egypt is the fastest in losing its groundwater storage from the NSAS. This loss of groundwater storage in Egypt may not necessarily be resulting from in-country extractions because of the trans-boundary nature of this aquifer. The GRACE-based estimates are found to be close to available data and previous modeling results of the NSAS.     

Kriging of water levels in the Souss aquifer,Morocco

Universal kriging is applied to water table data from the Souss aquifer in central Morocco. The procedure accounts for the spatial variability of the phenomenon to be mapped. With the use of measured elevations of the water table, an experimental variogram is constructed that characterizes the spatial variability of the measured water levels. Spherical and Gaussian variogram models are alternatively used to fit the experimental variogram. The models are used to develop contour maps of water table elevations and corresponding estimation variances. The estimation variances express the reliability of the kriged water table elevation maps. Universal kriging also provides a contour map of the expected elevation of the water table (drift). The differences between the expected and measured water table elevations are called residuals from the drift. Residuals from the drift are compared with residuals obtained by more traditional least-squares analysis.