The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

Multiple scattering of seismic waves in fractured media: Velocity and effective attenuation of the coherent components ofP waves andS waves

We show that the multiple scattering by small fractures of seismic waves with wavelengths long compared to the fracture size and fracture spacing is indistinguishable from multiple-scattering effects produced by regular porosity, except for an orientation factor due to fracture alignment. The fractures reduce theP-wave andS-wave velocities and produce an effective attenuation of the coherent component of the seismic waves. The attenuation corresponds to 1000/Q of about unity for a Gaussian spectrum of fractures, and it varies with frequencyf asf ³. For a Kolmogorov spectrum of fractures of spectral index the attenuation is an order of magnitude or so larger and varies with frequency asf ^3-v The precise degree of attenuation depends upon the matrix properties, the fracture porosity, the degree of fracture anisotropy, the type of fluid filling the fractures, and the incidence angle of the wave.For fracture porosities less than about 15% theP-wave andS-wave velocities are decreased by the order of 5–10% with a lesser dependence on the type of fluid filling the fractures (gas, oil, or brine) and with a dependence on both the degree of anisotropy and the incident angle made by the wave. The tendency of fractures to occur perpendicularly to bedding suggests that the best way to measure seismically fractured rock behavior in situ is by using the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude. As both the offset and the azimuth of receivers vary from a shot, the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude should both show an elliptical pattern of behavior—the travel-time delay in response to the varying seismic speed, and the reflection amplitude in response to angular variations in the multiple scattering. Observations of attenuation at several frequencies should permit (a) determination of the spectrum of fractures (Gaussian versus Kolmogorovian) and (b) determination of the contribution of viscous damping to the effective attenuation.     

Exploratory spectral analysis of hydrological times series

Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.     

Plate tectonics,palaeoenvironments and limestone geomorphology in West-Central Britain

The variety of active, exhumed, and buried limestone landforms of northern England, North Wales, and the Isle of Man arises in part from the way in which Dinantian (Lower Carboniferous) sedimentation was affected by a tilt-block basement structure evolved during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean suture to the north, and partly to subsequent plate tectonic movements associated with the closure of the proto-Tethys ocean, the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine orogeny. Landforms created during the Dinantian now form important exhumed and buried landscape features. The Permian half-graben structures of the eastern Irish Sea-Cheshire-Worcester Basins account for many of the contrasts between the upland karsts of the Pennines and the lowland karsts of coastal areas.     

Experimental petrology of alkalic lavas: constraints on cotectics of multiple saturation in natural basic liquids

Experimental study of natural alkalic lava compositions at low pressures (pO₂QFM) reveals that crystallization of primitive lavas often occurs in the sequence olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, nepheline without obvious reaction relation. Pseudoternary liquidus projections of multiply saturated liquids coexisting with plagioclase (±olivine±clinopyroxene±nepheline) have been prepared to facilitate graphical analysis of the evolution of lava compositions during hypabyssal cooling. Use of (TiAl₂)(MgSi₂)_–1 and Fe³⁺ (Al)_–1 exchange components is a key aspect of the projection procedure which is succesful in reducing a wide range of compositions to a systematic graphical representation. These projections, and the experiments on which they are based, show that low pressure fractionation plays a significant role in the petrogenesis of many alkalic lava suites from both continental and oceanic settings. However, the role of polybaric fractionation is more evident in the major element chemistry of these lava suites than in many tholeiitic suites of comparable extent. For example, the lavas of Karisimbi, East Africa, show a range of compositions reflecting a polybaric petrogenesis from primitive picrites at 1360° C/18 kb and leading to advanced low pressure differentiates. Evolved leucite-bearing potassic members of this and other suites may be treated in a nepheline-diopside-kspar (+olivine+leucite) projection. Compositional curvature on the plagioclase+clinopyroxene+olivine+leucite cotectic offers a mechanism to explain resorption of plagioclase in alkalic groundmass assemblages and the incompatibility of albite and leucite. This projection is useful for evaluating the extent of assimilation of the alkalic portions of crustal granulites. Assimilation appears to have played some role in the advanced differentiates from Karisimbi.     

Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers

Magma chambers cool and crystallize at a rate determined by the heat flux from the chamber. The heat is lost predominantly through the roof, whereas crystallization takes place mainly at the floor. Both processes provide destabilizing buoyancy fluxes which drive highly unsteady, chaotic convection in the magma. Even at the lowest cooling rates the thermal Rayleigh number Ra is found to be extremely large for both mafic and granitic magmas. Since the compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are directly related it can be shown that the compositional Rayleigh number Rs (and therefore a total Rayleigh number) is very much greater than Ra. In the case of basaltic melt crystallizing olivine Rs is up to 10⁶ times greater than Ra. However compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are roughly equal. Therefore thermal and compositional density gradients contribute equally to convection velocities in the interior of the magma. Effects of thermal buoyancy generated by latent heat release at the floor are included.The latent heat boundary layer at the floor of a basaltic chamber is shown to be of the order of 1 m thick with very low thermal gradients whereas the compositional boundary layer is about 1 cm thick with large compositional gradients. As a consequence, the variation in the degree of supercooling in front of the crystal-liquid interface is dominated by compositional effects. The habit and composition of the growing crystals is also controlled by the nature of the compositional boundary layer. Elongate crystals are predicted to form when the thickness of the compositional boundary layer is small compared with the crystal size (as in laboratory experiments with aqueous solutions). In contrast, equant crystals form when the boundary layer is thicker than the crystals (as in most magma chambers). Instability of the boundary layer in the latter case gives rise to zoning within crystals. Diffusion of compatible trace elements through the boundary layer can also explain an inverse correlation, observed in layered intrusions, between Ni concentration in olivine and the proportion of Ni-bearing phases in the crystallizing assemblage.     

Ordered mixed-layer structures in the Mighei carbonaceous chondrite matrix

High resolution transmission electron microscopy of the Mighei carbonaceous chondrite matrix has revealed the presence of a new mixed layer structure material. This mixed-layer material consists of an ordered arrangement of serpentine-type (S) and brucite-type (B) layers in the sequence … SBBSBB. … Electron diffraction and imaging techniques show that the basal periodicity is ~ 17 Å. Discrete crystals of SBB-type material are typically curved, of small size (<1 μm) and show structural variations similar to the serpentine group minerals. Mixed-layer material also occurs in association with planar serpentine. Characteristics of SBB-type material are not consistent with known terrestrial mixed-layer clay minerals. Evidence for formation by a condensation event or by subsequent alteration of preexisting material is not yet apparent.     

The geochemistry and petrogenesis of the Lower Paleozoic granitoids of the Lleyn Peninsula,North Wales

The Lleyn Peninsula of North Wales is penetrated by at least twenty stocks varying from microtonalite through to microgranite and these are closely associated with Caradocian volcanic rocks which include andesitic lavas.Major and trace element analyses show that the sample population may be separated into a peralkaline group and a sub-alkaline group. This latter group may be sub-divided into three compositional series which range from andesite to granite. The andesites are represented by the Caradocian lavas of the Moel y Penmaen district and these plot at one end of major and trace element variation diagrams. Their coherent relationships to the granitoids demonstrate the latter to be Ordovician and therefore ends a longstanding controversy concerning their age. The distinctive geochemistry of the andesites indicates the strong probability that they have evolved from transitional tholeiitic magma by low-pressure crystal fractionation. Apatite fractionation has strongly controlled the rare earth element abundances in the granitoids and for most compositions from andesite through granite their bulk distribution coefficient is greater than unity.The association of peralkaline granites, transitional tholeiites and other geological and geophysical evidence suggests that the area was a region of ensialic crustal tension during the mid-Ordovician.