Exploratory spectral analysis of hydrological times series

Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.     

Plate tectonics,palaeoenvironments and limestone geomorphology in West-Central Britain

The variety of active, exhumed, and buried limestone landforms of northern England, North Wales, and the Isle of Man arises in part from the way in which Dinantian (Lower Carboniferous) sedimentation was affected by a tilt-block basement structure evolved during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean suture to the north, and partly to subsequent plate tectonic movements associated with the closure of the proto-Tethys ocean, the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine orogeny. Landforms created during the Dinantian now form important exhumed and buried landscape features. The Permian half-graben structures of the eastern Irish Sea-Cheshire-Worcester Basins account for many of the contrasts between the upland karsts of the Pennines and the lowland karsts of coastal areas.     

Experimental petrology of alkalic lavas: constraints on cotectics of multiple saturation in natural basic liquids

Experimental study of natural alkalic lava compositions at low pressures (pO₂QFM) reveals that crystallization of primitive lavas often occurs in the sequence olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, nepheline without obvious reaction relation. Pseudoternary liquidus projections of multiply saturated liquids coexisting with plagioclase (±olivine±clinopyroxene±nepheline) have been prepared to facilitate graphical analysis of the evolution of lava compositions during hypabyssal cooling. Use of (TiAl₂)(MgSi₂)_–1 and Fe³⁺ (Al)_–1 exchange components is a key aspect of the projection procedure which is succesful in reducing a wide range of compositions to a systematic graphical representation. These projections, and the experiments on which they are based, show that low pressure fractionation plays a significant role in the petrogenesis of many alkalic lava suites from both continental and oceanic settings. However, the role of polybaric fractionation is more evident in the major element chemistry of these lava suites than in many tholeiitic suites of comparable extent. For example, the lavas of Karisimbi, East Africa, show a range of compositions reflecting a polybaric petrogenesis from primitive picrites at 1360° C/18 kb and leading to advanced low pressure differentiates. Evolved leucite-bearing potassic members of this and other suites may be treated in a nepheline-diopside-kspar (+olivine+leucite) projection. Compositional curvature on the plagioclase+clinopyroxene+olivine+leucite cotectic offers a mechanism to explain resorption of plagioclase in alkalic groundmass assemblages and the incompatibility of albite and leucite. This projection is useful for evaluating the extent of assimilation of the alkalic portions of crustal granulites. Assimilation appears to have played some role in the advanced differentiates from Karisimbi.     

Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers

Magma chambers cool and crystallize at a rate determined by the heat flux from the chamber. The heat is lost predominantly through the roof, whereas crystallization takes place mainly at the floor. Both processes provide destabilizing buoyancy fluxes which drive highly unsteady, chaotic convection in the magma. Even at the lowest cooling rates the thermal Rayleigh number Ra is found to be extremely large for both mafic and granitic magmas. Since the compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are directly related it can be shown that the compositional Rayleigh number Rs (and therefore a total Rayleigh number) is very much greater than Ra. In the case of basaltic melt crystallizing olivine Rs is up to 10⁶ times greater than Ra. However compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are roughly equal. Therefore thermal and compositional density gradients contribute equally to convection velocities in the interior of the magma. Effects of thermal buoyancy generated by latent heat release at the floor are included.The latent heat boundary layer at the floor of a basaltic chamber is shown to be of the order of 1 m thick with very low thermal gradients whereas the compositional boundary layer is about 1 cm thick with large compositional gradients. As a consequence, the variation in the degree of supercooling in front of the crystal-liquid interface is dominated by compositional effects. The habit and composition of the growing crystals is also controlled by the nature of the compositional boundary layer. Elongate crystals are predicted to form when the thickness of the compositional boundary layer is small compared with the crystal size (as in laboratory experiments with aqueous solutions). In contrast, equant crystals form when the boundary layer is thicker than the crystals (as in most magma chambers). Instability of the boundary layer in the latter case gives rise to zoning within crystals. Diffusion of compatible trace elements through the boundary layer can also explain an inverse correlation, observed in layered intrusions, between Ni concentration in olivine and the proportion of Ni-bearing phases in the crystallizing assemblage.     

Ordered mixed-layer structures in the Mighei carbonaceous chondrite matrix

High resolution transmission electron microscopy of the Mighei carbonaceous chondrite matrix has revealed the presence of a new mixed layer structure material. This mixed-layer material consists of an ordered arrangement of serpentine-type (S) and brucite-type (B) layers in the sequence … SBBSBB. … Electron diffraction and imaging techniques show that the basal periodicity is ~ 17 Å. Discrete crystals of SBB-type material are typically curved, of small size (<1 μm) and show structural variations similar to the serpentine group minerals. Mixed-layer material also occurs in association with planar serpentine. Characteristics of SBB-type material are not consistent with known terrestrial mixed-layer clay minerals. Evidence for formation by a condensation event or by subsequent alteration of preexisting material is not yet apparent.     

The geochemistry and petrogenesis of the Lower Paleozoic granitoids of the Lleyn Peninsula,North Wales

The Lleyn Peninsula of North Wales is penetrated by at least twenty stocks varying from microtonalite through to microgranite and these are closely associated with Caradocian volcanic rocks which include andesitic lavas.Major and trace element analyses show that the sample population may be separated into a peralkaline group and a sub-alkaline group. This latter group may be sub-divided into three compositional series which range from andesite to granite. The andesites are represented by the Caradocian lavas of the Moel y Penmaen district and these plot at one end of major and trace element variation diagrams. Their coherent relationships to the granitoids demonstrate the latter to be Ordovician and therefore ends a longstanding controversy concerning their age. The distinctive geochemistry of the andesites indicates the strong probability that they have evolved from transitional tholeiitic magma by low-pressure crystal fractionation. Apatite fractionation has strongly controlled the rare earth element abundances in the granitoids and for most compositions from andesite through granite their bulk distribution coefficient is greater than unity.The association of peralkaline granites, transitional tholeiites and other geological and geophysical evidence suggests that the area was a region of ensialic crustal tension during the mid-Ordovician.     

Measurement of the photodissociation coefficient of NO2 in the atmosphere: I. Method and surface measurements

An instrument, specifically designed for measurements from a balloon platform in the stratosphere, has been used to obtain ground-level values of the atmospheric photodissociation coefficient of nitrogen dioxide, J _{NO 2}.A typical clear-sky value is 8.0×10^-3 s^-1 when the solar zenith angle is 40°. Measurements were made as a function of solar zenith angle and correlated with a calibrated Eppley UV radiometer. It is shown that J _{NO 2}may be expressed as a simple function of the radiometer output so that estimates of J _{NO 2}can be made using just an upward looking radiometer to an accuracy of about 20%. The measurements are also found to be in good agreement with calculations of J _{NO 2}using a simplified isotropic multiple scattering computer routine.     

Chironomid-based paleosalinity records in southern British Columbia, Canada: a comparison of transfer functions

Chironomid remains from Big Lake, British Columbia were analysed and paleosalinities were estimated using a pre-existing transfer function and several developed using new regression methods. A two component partial-least-squares model (PLS-2) had the highest coefficient of determination (R² _(Jackknifed) = 0.75) and lowest root-mean-squared error-of-prediction (RMSEP). As compared to the pre-existing model, it was also less sensitive to the influence of rare taxa. Nevertheless, the marginally larger R² _(Jackknifed) and lower RMSEP do not clearly identify a single best model. The models were applied to Big, Mahoney and Kilpoola lakes, revealing the sensitivity of paleosalinity inferences to model selection. A synopsis of chironomid-based paleosalinities in British Columbia and their correspondence with other paleoclimatic data are presented and discussed.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.