A climatology of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones determined by an objective automatic scheme applied to 15 years (1975–89) of once-daily Australian Bureau of Meteorology hemispheric analyses is presented. Contour maps of the positions of formation (cyclogenesis), dissipation (cyclolysis) together with other cyclone statistics are presented. The distribution of cyclones through the hemisphere was found to be dominated by a permanent high latitude core coincident with the circumpolar trough. During the winter and intermediate seasons, two mid latitude branches are evident in the cyclone density originating in the Tasman Sea and South American sectors, both spiraling poleward and merging with the circumpolar core in the Southern Oceans. Systems were observed to move in an castsouth-east direction, away from their location of formation, exhibiting peak speeds of migration in the mid latitudes. Little seasonality was evident in the densitiy distribution of cyclones through the Southern Oceans, but a considerable amount was found in their central pressure. Correspondence to: I Simmonds     

A simple method of estimating rock mass porosity and permeability

Conclusion A simple method of estimating fracture porosity and permeability based on empirical relations between fracture aperture andJRC andJCS can be developed. This shows very close correlation with existing data, using simple discontinuity models. There is quite a good correlation between fracture porosity and permeability and depth for larger initial apertures.     

The compressibility of silicate liquids containing Fe2O3 and the effect of composition,temperature, oxygen fugacity and pressure on their redox states

Ultrasonic longitudinal acoustic velocities in oxidized silicate liquids indicate that the pressure derivative of the partial-molar volume of Fe₂O₃ is the same in iron-rich alkali-, alkaline earth- and natural silicate melt compositions at 1 bar. The dV/dP for multicomponent silicate liquids can be expressed as a linear combination of partial-molar constants plus a positive excess term for Na₂O−Al₂O₃ mixing. Partial-molar properties for FeO and Fe₂O₃ components allow extension of the empirical expression of Sack et al. (1980) to permit the calculation of Fe-redox equilibrium in a natural silicate liquid as a function of composition, temperature, fo₂ and pressure; a more formal thermodynamic expression is presented in the Appendix. The predicted equilibrium fo₂ of natural silicate melts, of fixed oxygen content, closely parallels that defined by the metastable assemblage fayalite+magnetite+β-quartz (FMQ), in pressure-temperature space. A silicate melt initially equilibrated at 3 GPa and FMQ, will remain within approximately 0.5 log₁₀ units of FMQ during its closed-system ascent. Thus, for magmas closed to oxygen, iron-redox equilibrium in crystal-poor pristine glassy lavas represents an excellent probe of the relative oxidation state of their source regions.     

The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

Plate tectonics,palaeoenvironments and limestone geomorphology in West-Central Britain

The variety of active, exhumed, and buried limestone landforms of northern England, North Wales, and the Isle of Man arises in part from the way in which Dinantian (Lower Carboniferous) sedimentation was affected by a tilt-block basement structure evolved during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean suture to the north, and partly to subsequent plate tectonic movements associated with the closure of the proto-Tethys ocean, the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine orogeny. Landforms created during the Dinantian now form important exhumed and buried landscape features. The Permian half-graben structures of the eastern Irish Sea-Cheshire-Worcester Basins account for many of the contrasts between the upland karsts of the Pennines and the lowland karsts of coastal areas.     

Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers

Magma chambers cool and crystallize at a rate determined by the heat flux from the chamber. The heat is lost predominantly through the roof, whereas crystallization takes place mainly at the floor. Both processes provide destabilizing buoyancy fluxes which drive highly unsteady, chaotic convection in the magma. Even at the lowest cooling rates the thermal Rayleigh number Ra is found to be extremely large for both mafic and granitic magmas. Since the compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are directly related it can be shown that the compositional Rayleigh number Rs (and therefore a total Rayleigh number) is very much greater than Ra. In the case of basaltic melt crystallizing olivine Rs is up to 10⁶ times greater than Ra. However compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are roughly equal. Therefore thermal and compositional density gradients contribute equally to convection velocities in the interior of the magma. Effects of thermal buoyancy generated by latent heat release at the floor are included.The latent heat boundary layer at the floor of a basaltic chamber is shown to be of the order of 1 m thick with very low thermal gradients whereas the compositional boundary layer is about 1 cm thick with large compositional gradients. As a consequence, the variation in the degree of supercooling in front of the crystal-liquid interface is dominated by compositional effects. The habit and composition of the growing crystals is also controlled by the nature of the compositional boundary layer. Elongate crystals are predicted to form when the thickness of the compositional boundary layer is small compared with the crystal size (as in laboratory experiments with aqueous solutions). In contrast, equant crystals form when the boundary layer is thicker than the crystals (as in most magma chambers). Instability of the boundary layer in the latter case gives rise to zoning within crystals. Diffusion of compatible trace elements through the boundary layer can also explain an inverse correlation, observed in layered intrusions, between Ni concentration in olivine and the proportion of Ni-bearing phases in the crystallizing assemblage.