Towards a sustainable economy for the Shetland Islands: Development and management issues in fishing and fish farming

Shetland, as an isolated group of islands on the north-west margin of Europe, has always depended in its economy on marine-based resources, and current trends suggest that this will continue for the future. Up to the oil era Shetland depended mainly on the fisheries around it, although for centuries externally-based fishermen have profited more from these fisheries than have the Shetland people. As well as the development of oil from the 1970s there has been the other major economic innovation of fish farming. The oil industry is on massive scale and has greatly changed the economy of the islands and brought notable social benefits; but the direct employment it provides is considerably exceeded by the fish-related industries, which include employment in fish processing and packing plants as well as in fish catching and fish farming. With the oil industry in Shetland now on a settled downward trajectory, the islands are inevitably now having to look more to fish-related employment for their future. In the internal structure of Shetland, fish farming has a notable effect in distributing employment throughout the islands. Activity in fishing and fish processing is more selectively located: fishing is mainly concentrated in certain islands in the archipelago, particularly Whalsay and Burra; and fish processing is mainly in central locations, especially Lerwick and Scalloway. A prominent problem for fish processors is getting reliable supplies in face of higher fish prices at markets on the Scottish mainland. The processors also now face the challenge of putting more value added on their products in an outlying location. For the future there is a major issue in getting more effective measures for conservation of fish stocks in the Shetland area; there is also the related issue of whether Shetland fishermen should get preference in the allocation of fish quotas in this area. For fish farming there is the basic issue of maintaining a pollution-free environment: this was emphasised by the oil spill from the Braer oil tanker, and there is also concern about potential polluution from the prospective development of oil fields in the more difficult deep-water environment to the west of the islands.     

Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Lidar observations of turbulent vortex shedding by an isolated topographic feature

Scanning measurements by a single wavelength lidar (1.06 m) were made downwind of the Pt. Sur rock, an isolated hill (height 110 m) along the California coast. Turbulent eddies (approximate diameter 50 m) were observed detaching from a stationary aerosol feature above the rock and moving downwind. Under conditions with a high Froude number [1.8], the Strouhal number [0.22] of vortex shedding was close to that observed in tank experiments with a Reynolds number of 200.     

Variation in the composition of Lake Bonneville marl: a potential key to lake-level fluctuations and paleoclimate

Lake Bonneville marl provides a stratigraphic record of lake history preserved in its carbonate minerals and stable isotopes. We have analyzed the marl in shallow cores taken at three localities in the Bonneville basin. Chronology for the cores is provided by dated volcanic ashes, ostracode biostratigraphy, and a distinctive lithologic unit believed to have been deposited during and immediately after the Bonneville Flood.A core taken at Monument Point at the north shore of Great Salt Lake encompasses virtually the entire Bonneville lake cycle, including the 26.5 ka Thiokol basaltic ash at the base and deposits representing the overflowing stage at the Provo shoreline at the top of the core. Two cores from the Old River Bed area near the threshold between the Sevier basin and the Great Salt Lake basin (the main body of Lake Bonneville) represent deposition from the end of the Stansbury oscillation ( 20 ka) to post-Provo time ( 13 ka), and one core from near Sunstone Knoll in the Sevier basin provides a nearly complete record of the period when Lake Bonneville flooded the Sevier basin (20–13 ka).In all cores, percent calcium carbonate, the aragonite to calcite ratio, and percent sand were measured at approximately 2-cm intervals, and ¹⁸O and ¹³C were determined in one core from the Old River Bed area. The transgressive period from about 20 ka to 15 ka is represented in all cores, but the general trends and the details of the records are different, probably as a result of water chemistry and water balance differences between the main body and the Sevier basin because they were fed by different rivers and had different hypsometries. The Old River Bed marl sections are intermediate in position and composition between the Monument Point and Sunstone Knoll sections. Variations in marl composition at the Old River Bed, which are correlated with lake-level changes, were probably caused by changes in the relative proportions of water from the two basins, which were caused by shifts in water balance in the lake.This is the second paper in a series of papers published in this issue on Climatic and Tectonic Rhythms in Lake Deposits.     

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba,Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (12–9 ka), ¹⁸O of ostracodes ranged from –16 to –5 (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water.Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ¹⁸O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ¹⁸O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such asC. rawsoni orLimnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such asL. staplini orL. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake.¹⁸O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from –4 at 8 ka to –11 at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (–20 SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ¹⁸O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (–6) after 4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After 2 ka, the ¹⁸O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between –13 and –7, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ¹³C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.     

Fluid-rock interaction between syenites and marbles at Stephen Cross Quarry,Québec,Canada: petrological and stable isotope data

Grenville dolomitic marbles and calc-silicates at Stephen Cross Quarry, Québec, underwent contact metamorphism and metasomatism associated with the intrusion of the Wakefield syenite at ambient pressures of 0.4GPa at 1090–1070Ma. Fluid infiltration produced exoskarns, calcite+periclase+forsterite±diopside±orthoclase assemblages in the marbles, and quartz±calcite±wollastonite±diopside±anorthite assemblages in the calc-silicates. Phase-equilibria in the CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–CO₂ system suggest that fluid infiltration occurred close to the thermal peak of contact metamorphism (715–815°C) and that the fluids hadXCO₂0.15. In the metasediments, ¹⁸O values of calcite (Cc) are as low as 8.6, suggesting that the fluids were in isotopic equilibrium with the syenites (¹⁸O =8.8–10.2). Marble ¹³C(Cc) values are-0.1 to-3.2; the lack of correlation between ¹³C(Cc) and ¹⁸O(Cc) is consistent with the infiltration of water-rich fluids. The resetting of stable isotopes and the mineralogical changes can be explained by time-integrated fluid fluxes of up to 110 m³/m² (4×10⁶ mol/m²), corresponding to actual fluxes of 3×10^-11 to 3×10^-12 m³/m²-s and intrinsic permeabilities of 10^-18 to 10^-20 m² for fluid flow lasting 0.1-1Ma. Marble ¹⁸O(Cc) values do not correlate well with distance from the syenite, and fluids were probably channelled across lithological layering. The correlation between the degree of resetting of marble ¹⁸O(Cc) values with the abundance of submillimetre-wide veins, suggests that fluid focussing may have resulted from variations in fracture density. Late, lower temperature (<500°C), fluid flow formed serpentine (Serp) and brucite (Br) from periclase and forsterite. ¹⁸O(Br) and ¹⁸O(Scrp) values correlate with ¹⁸O(Cc), suggesting that retrogression involved only limited volumes of fluid. The observation that ¹⁸O(Cc-Br) and ¹⁸O(Cc-Serp) values are higher in marbles that have lower ¹⁸O(Cc) values is interpreted as indicating that fluid flow persisted to lower temperatures in those rocks due to higher intrinsic permeabilities. Calcite in the syenite was also formed by the influx of fluids during cooling. Syenite ¹⁸O(Cc) values are approximately in isotopic equilibrium with the high-temperature silicate minerals, suggesting that again only minor volumes of fluid were involved. In detail fluid flow was prolonged and complex, creating problems for the application of quantitative fluid flow models.This paper is a contribution to IGCP 304, Lower Crustal Processes     

Malta: macropolitical threats

Despite constitutional neutrality and non-alignment, for the last decade Malta has dabbled in Western security circles. By pledging commitment to the European CFSP and forging closer associations with NATO the government consummated allegiances with the hegemonic flank of their region and the only remaining superpower. However, Maltese security in the post-Cold War era is about more than just power fealty. Whilst not overlooking the still highly relevant military threats to security, this paper elucidates three macropolitical threats that are too impetuous for the worlds most powerful security organizations to handle. Indeed, future Maltese membership of the WEU or closer ties with NATO may even exacerbate these menaces.     

The point spread function of the soft X-ray telescope aboard Yohkoh

The point spread function of the SXT telescope aboardYohkoh has been measured in flight configuration in three different X-ray lines at White Sands Missile Range. We have fitted these data with an elliptical generalization of the Moffat function. Our fitting method consists of ² minimizationin Fourier space, especially designed for matching of sharply peaked functions. We find excellent fits with a reduced ² of order unity or less for single exposure point spread functions over most of the CCD. Near the edges of the CCD the fits are less accurate due to vignetting. From fitting results with summation of multiple exposures we find a systematic error in the fitting function of the order of 3% near the peak of the point spread function, which is close to the photon noise for typical SXT images in orbit. We find that the full width to half maximum and fitting parameters vary significantly with CCD location. However, we also find that point spread functions measured at the same location are consistent to one another within the limit determined by photon noise. A best analytical fit to the PSF as function of position on the CCD is derived for use in SXT image enhancement routines. As an aside result we have found that SXT can determine the location of point sources to about a quarter of a 2.54 arc sec pixel.This paper is dedicated to the memory of our friend and colleague Kermit Smith, who died in June 1993, after a valient fight with leukemia.     

The American whale oil industry: A look back to the future of the American petroleum industry?

The American whaling industry rose from humble beginnings off Long island to become an international giant. In its peak year, 1846, 735 ships and 70,000 people served the industry. As whale stocks and reserves decreased, whalers were forced to go farther and farther from their New England home ports. Voyages became longer, and risks on required return-on-investment became higher. The easy money of Atlantic and Pacific whaling was no more: the only remaining profitable ventures were to Arctic and Antarctic waters. Many ships returned empty, if at all. in 1871, most of the Arctic whaling fleet was crushed by early winter ice and lost. This calamity, in conjunction with the long-term diminishing whale stocks, the diversion of investment capital to more profitable ventures, and the discovery, development, and refinement of abundant petroleum crude oil, struck the death blow to the American whaling industry. By 1890, only 200 whaling vessels were at work, and by 1971, no American commercial whaling ship sailed the world's oceans.It is apparent that no single event caused the final, rapid decline. However, a single calamity, in an already stressed industry, that was self-insured and commercially interlinked, precipitated the end. Today's American petroleum industry, although adopting some principles of the American whaling industry, also has embraced other activities such as work process reengineering and customer alliances, which may preempt, or postpone, a similar catastrophic demise.     

The origin of polygonal troughs on the Northern Plains of Mars

Viking photographs have revealed extraordinary systems of crudely polygonal troughs in three different areas of the northern plains of Mars. Trough widths average 200–800 m and average trough spacing is 5–10 km. The widest troughs have flat floors and steep sides which suggest that they are either grabens or tension cracks which have been partially filled. The following three arguments support the garben interpretation: (1) Two clear examples of vertical offsets along trough walls indicate that the troughs formed by downdropping of the floors. (2) Troughs similar in scale and morphology to those of the Martian northern plains form concentric and radial patterns in the Caloris Basin on Mercury. Most likely, they are extensional fractures or grabens resulting from uplift of the basin floor (Strom et al., 1975). The Caloris analogy suggests that the troughs on Mars are similar tectonic features related either to uplift or expansion of the planet. Fourteen rose diagrams of trough azimuths in southeastern Acidalia Planita show that locally they exhibit preferred orientations roughly parallel to the topographic contours, but overall there is no strong regional pattern. (3) The scale of tension crack systems is limited by the depth of fracturing because the extent of stress relief perpendicular to a crack is proportional to the crack depth. Observations of terrestrial tension cracks suggest a lower limit on crack depths of about one-tenth of the average spacing. Thus, if the Martian troughs are tension cracks, they would be expected to have depths of at least 500–1000 m. Mechanical considerations indicate that it is difficult to generate such deep cracks by surficial tension due to thermal cooling and contraction in permafrost, desiccation, or cooling of lava flows. Deep-seated tension of tectonic origin generally results in normal faults and not tension cracks.