EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA

Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO₂ scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrothermal pattern of frozen soil in Nam Co lake basin,the Tibetan Plateau

Hydrothermal processes and the regimes of frozen soil formed in alpine regions with glaciers and lake area are complex and important for ecological environment but have not been studied in Tibet. Based on soil temperature and moisture data from October 2005 to September 2006 collected in the Nam Co lake basin, Tibetan Plateau (TP), those questions were discussed. The mean annual air temperature was −3.4°C with 8 months below 0°C. Air and soil temperature varied between −25.3~13.1°C and −10.3~8.8°C, respectively. Soil moisture variations in the active layer were small with the minimum value of 1.4%, but were influenced greatly by snowmelt, rainfall and evaporation, varying up to 53.8%. The active layer froze later, thawed earlier and was thinner, however, the lower altitude limit of permafrost is higher than that in most areas of TP. The effects of soil moisture (unfrozen water content) on soil temperature, which were estimated through proposed models, were more significant near ground surface than the other layers. The surface soil temperature decreased with snowcover, the effect of cold snow meltwater infiltration on soil thermal conditions was negligible, however, the effect of rainfall infiltration was evident causing thermal disruptions.     

Using GIS and large-scale digital data to implement hedonic pricing studies

This paper describes how a standard GIS package can be used to convert large-scale vector digital data (point, line and annotation features) into polygons using standardised and replicable methods. Building area, garden and land use polygons are all derived from such data (Ordnance Survey LandLine.Plus). These entities are then combined with further sources of digital data to derive more refined information such as property types. Finally, complex DEMs are developed for use in visibility studies. The variables calculated are subsequently employed in a property valuation study where many are found to be significant determinants of property price. The main exception is variables relating to viewsheds, although it is argued that this does not invalidate the techniques used in their deviation but highlights the difficulties involved in modelling a large number of variables in a property price analysis.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Growth variability and stable isotope composition of two larval carangid fishes in the East Australian Current: The role of upwelling in the separation zone

The larvae of two carangid fishes, silver trevally (Pseudocaranx dentex) and yellowtail scad (Trachurus novaezelandiae), were compared among coastal water masses and the East Australian Current (EAC). Samples followed a north to south gradient including a southern region of upwelling, generated as the EAC separated from the coast. Mean larval carangid densities were greater in the mixed layer (10-30 m) than the surface, but there was no difference between inshore and offshore stations or along latitudinal gradients. Overall, P. dentex recent larval growth over two days pre-capture was faster than T. novaezelandiae, and faster at inshore, coastal stations than in the EAC. Integrated larval growth rate (mm d⁻¹) was usually faster at inshore stations for both species. T. novaezelandiae were enriched in both nitrogen (??¹⁵N) and carbon (??¹³C) stable isotopes relative to P. dentex. Larvae of both species captured within the upwelling region were enriched in ??¹⁵N and depleted in ??¹³C relative to other sites. Recent larval growth had a significant positive relationship with fluorescence (as a proxy of chlorophyll a biomass), and integrated larval growth rate had a significant positive relationship with fluorescence and larval isotope (??¹⁵N) composition. Recent and integrated growth of larval T. novaezelandiae and P. dentex was enhanced by EAC separation and upwelling, and also in coastal water; stimulated by food availability, and potentially through exploitation of a different trophic niche.     

The strengthening East Australian Current, its eddies and biological effects — an introduction and overview

The poleward flowing East Australian Current (EAC) is characterised by its separation from the coast, 100-200 nautical miles north of Sydney, to form the eastward flowing Tasman Front and a southward flowing eddy field. The separation zone greatly influences coastal ecosystems for the relatively narrow continental shelf (only 15-50 km wide), particularly between 32-34°S. In this region the continental shelf has a marked shift in the seasonal temperature-salinity relationship and elevated surface nitrate concentrations. This current parallels the portion of the coast where Australia’s population is concentrated and has a long history of scientific research. However, understanding of physical and biological processes driven by the EAC, particularly in linking circulation to ecosystems, is limited. In this special issue of 16 papers on the EAC, we examine the effects of climatic wind-stress forced ocean dynamics on EAC transport variability and coastal sea level, from ENSO to multi-decadal time scales; eddy formation and structure; fine scale connectivity and larval retention. Comparisons with the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current on Australia’s west coast show differences in ecosystem productivity that can be attributed to the underlying physics in each region. On average there is double the chlorophyll a concentration on the east coast than the west. In comparison to the Leeuwin, the EAC may have less local retention of larvae and act as a partial barrier to onshore transport, which may also be related to the local spawning and early life history of small pelagic fish on each coast. Inter-annual variations in the EAC transport produce a detectable sea-level signal in Sydney Harbour, which could provide a useful fisheries index as does the Fremantle sea level and Leeuwin Current relationship. The EAC’s eddy structure and formation by the EAC are examined. A particular cold-core eddy is shown to have a “tilt” towards the coast, and that during a rotation the flow of particles may rise up to the euphotic zone and then down beneath. In a warm-core eddy, surface flooding is shown to produce a new shallower surface mixed layer and promote algal growth. An assessment of plankton data from 1938-1942 showed that the local, synoptic conditions had to be incorporated before any comparison with the present. There are useful relationships of water mass characteristics in the Tasman Sea and separation zone with larval fish diversity and abundance, as well as with long-line fisheries. These fisheries-pelagic habitat relationships are invaluable for fisheries management, as well as for climate change assessments.There is further need to examine the EAC influence on rainfall, storm activity, dust deposition, and on the movements by fish, sharks and whales. The Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) has provided new infrastructure to determine the changing behaviour of the EAC and its bio-physical interaction with the coasts and estuaries. The forecasting and hindcasting capability developed under the Bluelink project has provided a new tool for data synthesis and dynamical analysis. The impact of a strengthening EAC and how it influences the livelihoods of over half the Australian population, from Brisbane to Sydney, Hobart and Melbourne, is just being realised.     

Geochemical studies of the SUBO 18 (Enkingen) drill core and other impact breccias from the Ries crater,Germany

Suevite and melt breccia compositions in the boreholes Enkingen and Polsingen are compared with compositions of suevites from other Ries boreholes and surface locations and discussed in terms of implications for impact breccia genesis. No significant differences in average chemical compositions for the various drill cores or surface samples are noted. Compositions of suevite and melt breccia from southern and northeastern sectors of the Ries crater do not significantly differ. This is in stark contrast to the published variations between within‐crater and out‐of‐crater suevites from northern and southern sectors of the Bosumtwi impact structure, Ghana. Locally occurring alteration overprint on drill cores—especially strong on the carbonate‐impregnated suevite specimens of the Enkingen borehole—does affect the average compositions. Overall, the composition of the analyzed impact breccias from Ries are characterized by very little macroscopically or microscopically recognized sediment‐clast component; the clast populations of suevite and impact melt breccia are dominated consistently by granitic and intermediate granitoid components. The Polsingen breccia is significantly enriched in a dioritic clast component. Overall, chemical compositions are of intermediate composition as well, with dioritic‐granodioritic silica contents, and relatively small contributions from mafic target components. Selected suevite samples from the Enkingen core have elevated Ni, Co, Cr, and Ir contents compared with previously analyzed suevites from the Ries crater, which suggest a small meteoritic component. Platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations for some of the enriched samples indicate somewhat elevated concentrations and near‐chondritic ratios of the most immobile PGE, consistent with an extraterrestrial contribution of 0.1–0.2% chondrite‐equivalent.     

Differential absorption measurements of mesospheric and lower thermospheric electron densities using the Buckland Park MF radar

The differential absorption experiment (DAE) was first proposed in the 1950s for the estimation of mesospheric and lower thermospheric electron density using MF/HF radars. The technique was used extensively until the late 1970s, when interest in the technique declined, due to experimental limitations and questions regarding the assumptions of the technique. This paper describes the application of the DAE within the online observations of the Buckland Park MF (BPMF) radar. The experimental limitations of the technique for the BPMF radar are discussed, with particular attention paid to effects of complex gain differences between receiving channels used to decompose the linearly received signals into circular components. Hourly and monthly averaged midday DAE electron densities are presented, revealing good agreement with IRI model estimates. Monthly averaged midnight DAE electron densities are also presented, revealing good qualitative agreement with the IRI model estimates.     

Drivers of ecosystem and climate change in tropical West Africa over the past ∼540 000 years

A paucity of empirical non‐marine data means that uncertainty surrounds the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in tropical regions beyond the last glacial period. The sedimentary fill of the Bosumtwi impact crater (Ghana) provides the longest continuous Quaternary terrestrial archive of environmental change in West Africa, spanning the last ～1.08 million years. Here we explore the drivers of change in ecosystem and climate in tropical West Africa for the past ～540 000 years using pollen analysis and the nitrogen isotope composition of bulk organic matter preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi. Variations in grass pollen abundance (0?99%) indicate transitions between grassland and forest. Coeval variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter indicate that intervals of grassland expansion coincided with minimum lake levels and low regional moisture availability. The observed changes responded to orbitally paced global climate variations on both glacial–interglacial and shorter timescales. Importantly, the magnitude of ecosystem change revealed by our data exceeds that previously determined from marine records, demonstrating for the first time the high sensitivity of tropical lowland ecosystems to Quaternary climate change.