Ground Surface Temperature History in Poland in the 16th–20th Centuries Derived from the Inversion of Geothermal Profiles

Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53^oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level.     

2006年乌苏MS5.1地震前后北天山地倾斜资料异常分析

分析了2006年11月23日新疆乌苏Ms5.1地震前后距震中250 km范围内的北天山地倾斜观测资料.认为2005年初以来绝大多数测项存在明显的准同步性趋势异常,以趋势性加速E倾、N倾为主,地震发生在大多数异常结束并出现返向加速变化之后,少数在趋势性E倾、N倾过程中;空间上愈接近震中,异常开始时间愈早,异常测项也较为集中.与以往震例比较该次地震前中短期和短临异常不明显,震后绝大多数趋势异常仍在持续,可能表明北天山地区依然存在发生中强地震的背景.     

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000–2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.     

Integrability of motion around galactic razor-thin disks

We consider the three-dimensional bounded motion of a test particle around razor-thin disk configurations, by focusing on the adiabatic invariance of the vertical action associated with disk-crossing orbits. We find that it leads to an approximate third integral of motion predicting envelopes of the form \(Z(R)\propto [\varSigma (R)]^{-1/3}\), where R is the radial galactocentric coordinate, Z is the z-amplitude (vertical amplitude) of the orbit and \(\varSigma \) represents the surface mass density of the thin disk. This third integral, which was previously formulated for the case of flattened 3D configurations, is tested for a variety of trajectories in different thin-disk models.     

Estimates of gravity wave drag on Mars: Indication of a possible lower thermospheric wind reversal

Spectral gravity wave parameterization suitable for planetary thermospheres applied to wind and temperature from Mars Climate Database reveals enormously strong drag incompatible with the wind distribution. It points out to a possible wind reversal in the 110-140 km layer similar to the one in the Earth’s lower thermosphere.     

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O and radiogenic isotopic constraints on the origin of adakitic signatures: a case study from Solander and Little Solander Islands,New Zealand

Subduction-related Quaternary volcanic rocks from Solander and Little Solander Islands, south of mainland New Zealand, are porphyritic trachyandesites and andesites (58.20–62.19 wt% SiO₂) with phenocrysts of amphibole, plagioclase and biotite. The Solander and Little Solander rocks are incompatible element enriched (e.g. Sr ~931–2,270 ppm, Ba ~619–798 ppm, Th ~8.7–21.4 ppm and La ~24.3–97.2 ppm) with MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Isotopically similar quench-textured enclaves reflect mixing with intermediate (basaltic-andesite) magmas. The Solander rocks have geochemical affinities with adakites (e.g. high Sr/Y and low Y), whose origin is often attributed to partial melting of subducted oceanic crust. Solander sits on isotopically distinct continental crust, thus excluding partial melting of the lower crust in the genesis of the magmas. Furthermore, the incompatible element enrichments of the Solander rocks are inconsistent with partial melting of newly underplated mafic lower crust; reproduction of their major element compositions would require unrealistically high degrees of partial melting. A similar argument precludes partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust and the inability to match the observed trace element patterns in the presence of residual garnet or plagioclase. Alternatively, an enriched end member of depleted MORB mantle source is inferred from Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, trace element enrichments and εHf ? 0 CHUR in detrital zircons, sourced from the volcanics. ¹⁰Be and Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics are inconsistent with significant sediment involvement in the source region. The trace element enrichments and MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of the Solander rocks require a strong fractionation mechanism to impart the high incompatible element concentrations and subduction-related (e.g. high LILE/HFSE) geochemical signatures of the Solander magmas. Trace element modelling shows that this can be achieved by very low degrees of melting of a peridotitic source enriched by the addition of a slab-derived melt. Subsequent open-system fractionation, involving a key role for mafic magma recharge, resulted in the evolved andesitic adakites.     

Difference of mercury bioaccumulation in red mullets from the north-western Mediterranean and Black seas

The relationships between total mercury (Hg) concentration and stable nitrogen isotope ratio (δ¹⁵N) were evaluated in Mullus barbatus barbatus and M. surmuletus from the Mediterranean Sea and M. barbatus ponticus from the Black Sea. Mercury concentration in fish muscle was six times higher in the two Mediterranean species than in the Black Sea one for similar sized animals. A positive correlation between Hg concentration and δ¹⁵N occurred in all species. Increase in Hg concentration with δ¹⁵N was high and similar in the two Mediterranean fishes and much lower in the Black Sea species. Since this was neither related to trophic level difference between species nor to methylmercury (MeHg) concentration differences between the north-western Mediterranean and the Black Sea waters, we suggested that the higher primary production of the Black Sea induced a dilution of MeHg concentration at the base of the food webs.     

Surface gravitational field and topography changes induced by the Earth’s fluid core motions

Using a Love number formalism, the elastic deformations of the mantle and the mass redistribution gravitational potential within the Earth induced by the fluid pressure acting at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) are computed. This pressure field changes at a decadal time scale and may be estimated from observations of the surface magnetic field and its secular variation. First, using a spherical harmonic expansion, the poloidal and toroidal part of the fluid velocity field at the CMB for the last 40 years is computed, under the hypothesis of tangential geostrophy. Then the associated geostrophic pressure, whose order of magnitude is about 1000 Pa, is computed. The surface topography induced by this pressure field is computed using Love numbers, and is a few millimetres. The mass redistribution gravitational potential induced by these deformations and, in particular, the zonal components of the related surface gravitational potential perturbation (J₂, J₃ and J₄ coefficients), are calculated. Overall perturbations for the J₂ coefficient of about 10^–10, for J₃ of about 10^–11 and for J₄ are found of about 0.3×10^–11. Finally, these theoretical results are compared with recent observations of the decadal variation of J₂ from satellite laser ranging. Results concerning J₂ can be described as follows: first, they are one order of magnitude too small to explain the observed decadal variation of J₂ and, second, they show a significant linear trend over the last 40 years, whose rate of decrease amounts to 7% of the observed value.     

Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.     

Heliospheric Observations of STEREO-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in 2008?–?2010: Lessons for Future Observations of Earth-Directed CMEs

We present a study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which impacted one of the STEREO spacecraft between January 2008 and early 2010. We focus our study on 20 CMEs which were observed remotely by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard the other STEREO spacecraft up to large heliocentric distances. We compare the predictions of the Fixed-?? and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods, which only differ by the assumed geometry of the CME. It is possible to use these techniques to determine from remote-sensing observations the CME direction of propagation, arrival time and final speed which are compared to in-situ measurements. We find evidence that for large viewing angles, the HM fitting method predicts the CME direction better. However, this may be due to the fact that only wide CMEs can be successfully observed when the CME propagates more than 100^° from the observing spacecraft. Overall eight CMEs, originating from behind the limb as seen by one of the STEREO spacecraft can be tracked and their arrival time at the other STEREO spacecraft can be successfully predicted. This includes CMEs, such as the events on 4 December 2009 and 9 April 2010, which were viewed 130^° away from their direction of propagation. Therefore, we predict that some Earth-directed CMEs will be observed by the HIs until early 2013, when the separation between Earth and one of the STEREO spacecraft will be similar to the separation of the two STEREO spacecraft in 2009??C?2010.