On the modern approach to the problem of detecting hazardous celestial bodies

The problem of detecting dangerous (in the sense of a collision with the Earth) celestial bodies of natural origin and the modern concept of building a system of detection of such bodies are discussed. The concept includes two items: remote detection of large (>50 m) hazardous objects providing warning time of several tens of days, which is sufficient to allow the active counteraction and detection of hazardous bodies larger than 10 m in near-Earth space providing warning time of few hours, which is sufficient to issue a warning and to carry out mitigation activities. Some examples of this approach and prospects of the international cooperation are discussed.     

The local far-infrared galaxy colour–luminosity distribution: a reference for BLAST and Herschel/SPIRE submillimetre surveys

We measure the local galaxy far-infrared (FIR) 60 to 100 μm colour–luminosity distribution using an all-sky IRAS survey. This distribution is an important reference for the next generation of FIR–submillimetre surveys that have and will conduct deep extragalactic surveys at 250–500 μm. With the peak in dust-obscured star-forming activity leading to present-day giant ellipticals now believed to occur in submillimetre galaxies near   z ∼ 2.5  , these new FIR–submillimetre surveys will directly sample the spectral energy distributions of these distant objects at rest-frame FIR wavelengths similar to those at which local galaxies were observed by IRAS . We have taken care to correct for the temperature bias and the evolution effects in our IRAS 60-μm-selected sample. We verify that our colour–luminosity distribution is consistent with the measurements of the local FIR luminosity function, before applying it to the higher redshift Universe. We compare our colour–luminosity correlation with recent dust–temperature measurements of submillimetre galaxies and find evidence for pure luminosity evolution of the form  (1 + z )³  . This distribution will be useful for the development of evolutionary models for Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST) and Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) surveys as it provides a statistical distribution of the rest-frame dust temperatures for galaxies as a function of luminosity.     

The effects of beach nourishment on the sandy-beach amphipod Exoediceros fossor: impact and recovery in Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia

Beach nourishment is increasingly being implemented to address problems of erosion. However, the ecological consequences of nourishment are poorly understood, especially in Australia. In Botany Bay, sand was piped from an intertidal borrow area at Elephant's Trunk to nourish the nearby eroding beach at Towra Point. The effects on an intertidal exoedicerotid amphipod, Exoediceros fossor (Stimpson, 1856), were examined using a beyond-BACI (Before–After, Control–Impact) sampling design. Sampling was conducted before and after engineering operations at sites within the borrow and nourishment locations and multiple control locations. Hypotheses concerning impact and recovery were tested using asymmetrical ANOVAs and two-tailed F-tests. These examined the effects on abundance and spatial variability, respectively. The impact of the engineering operations on abundance was very large at both borrow and nourishment locations. However, recovery started within several weeks and, using space × time interactions as a criterion, appeared to be complete within a year. This conclusion is made cautiously because of low statistical power and because other criteria for recovery suggest that it was not complete at some sites. As beach erosion is likely to increase in severity with rising sea levels and greater storm surges associated with climate change, management authorities will need a better understanding of the ecological effects of beach nourishment.     

The Mechanical Coupling of Fluid-Filled Granular Material Under Shear

The coupled mechanics of fluid-filled granular media controls the physics of many Earth systems, for example saturated soils, fault gouge, and landslide shear zones. It is well established that when the pore fluid pressure rises, the shear resistance of fluid-filled granular systems decreases, and, as a result, catastrophic events such as soil liquefaction, earthquakes, and accelerating landslides may be triggered. Alternatively, when the pore pressure drops, the shear resistance of these geosystems increases. Despite the great importance of the coupled mechanics of grain–fluid systems, the basic physics that controls this coupling is far from understood. Fundamental questions that must be addressed include: what are the processes that control pore fluid pressurization and depressurization in response to deformation of the granular skeleton? and how do variations of pore pressure affect the mechanical strength of the grains skeleton? To answer these questions, a formulation for the pore fluid pressure and flow has been developed from mass and momentum conservation, and is coupled with a granular dynamics algorithm that solves the grain dynamics, to form a fully coupled model. The pore fluid formulation reveals that the evolution of pore pressure obeys viscoelastic rheology in response to pore space variations. Under undrained conditions elastic-like behavior dominates and leads to a linear relationship between pore pressure and overall volumetric strain. Viscous-like behavior dominates under well-drained conditions and leads to a linear relationship between pore pressure and volumetric strain rate. Numerical simulations reveal the possibility of liquefaction under drained and initially over-compacted conditions, which were often believed to be resistant to liquefaction. Under such conditions liquefaction occurs during short compactive phases that punctuate the overall dilative trend. In addition, the previously recognized generation of elevated pore pressure under undrained compactive conditions is observed. Simulations also show that during liquefaction events stress chains are detached, the external load becomes completely supported by the pressurized pore fluid, and shear resistance vanishes.     

Bayesian data fusion in a spatial prediction context: a general formulation

In spite of the exponential growth in the amount of data that one may expect to provide greater modeling and predictions opportunities, the number and diversity of sources over which this information is fragmented is growing at an even faster rate. As a consequence, there is real need for methods that aim at reconciling them inside an epistemically sound theoretical framework. In a statistical spatial prediction framework, classical methods are based on a multivariate approach of the problem, at the price of strong modeling hypotheses. Though new avenues have been recently opened by focusing on the integration of uncertain data sources, to the best of our knowledges there have been no systematic attemps to explicitly account for information redundancy through a data fusion procedure. Starting from the simple concept of measurement errors, this paper proposes an approach for integrating multiple information processing as a part of the prediction process itself through a Bayesian approach. A general formulation is first proposed for deriving the prediction distribution of a continuous variable of interest at unsampled locations using on more or less uncertain (soft) information at neighboring locations. The case of multiple information is then considered, with a Bayesian solution to the problem of fusing multiple information that are provided as separate conditional probability distributions. Well-known methods and results are derived as limit cases. The convenient hypothesis of conditional independence is discussed by the light of information theory and maximum entropy principle, and a methodology is suggested for the optimal selection of the most informative subset of information, if needed. Based on a synthetic case study, an application of the methodology is presented and discussed.     

Gold–quartz deposits of the Zhdaninsky ore–placer cluster,eastern Yakutia: Structural control and formation conditions

Gold deposits and occurrences small in reserves and high in Au grade conventionally determine the line of prospecting in terrigenous sequences of the Verkhoyansk–Kolyma region. In this paper, the geological structure of such gold objects is considered with the example of the deposits and prospects making up the Zhdaninsky ore–placer cluster in the Republic of Sakha (Yakuia). From lithological, structural, and mineralogical–geochemical data, the formation conditions of ore-bearing complexes are specified, the geological evolution history of the northern Ol’chan Zone of the Kular–Nera Belt is reconstructed, and the zonal distribution of mineralization within the ore–placer cluster is revealed. The structural–compositional complexes were formed in the following succession: (1) sedimentation at the shelf of the passive margin accompanied by synsedimentation deformations; (2) metagenesis of sediments and the development of bedding-plane intraformational detachments of collision stage D₁ under conditions of tangential compression and accompanied by the formation of carbon dioxide–aqueous metamorphic fluid at a temperature of 300°C and under a pressure of 1.4 kbar; (3) folding and faulting of orogenic stage D₂ with the formation of synkinematic magmatic bodies, metasomatic alteration, and Au-bearig mineral assemblages. Small Au-bearing objects with veined mineralization and high Au grade are localized in structures of stage D₂ transverse to bedding-plane schistosity S₁. They form at the collision stage above intraformational detachment surfaces and are controlled by shear structures of the orogenic stage with misalignment of these deformations. The ore zoning is determined by the distribution of Co and Ni minerals and by variations in the anionic composition of ore (S, As, Sb).     

Spatial distribution and kinematics of OB stars

The sample of 37 485 suspected OB stars selected by Gontcharov (2008) from the Tycho-2 catalogue has been cleaned of the stars that are not of spectral types OV-A0V. For this purpose, the apparent magnitude V _T from Tycho-2, the absolute magnitude $M_{V_T }$ calibrated as a function of the dereddened color index (B _T ? V _T )₀, the interstellar extinction $A_{V_T }$ calculated from the 3D analytical model by Gontcharov (2009) as a function of the Galactic coordinates, and the photometric distance r _ph calculated as a function of V _T , $M_{V_T }$ , and $A_{V_T }$ have been reconciled in an iterative process. The 20 514 stars that passed the iterations have (B _T ? V _T )₀ < 0 and $M_{V_T }$ > ?5 and are considered as a sample of OV-A0V stars complete within 350 pc of the Sun. Based on the theoretical relation between the dereddened color and age of the stars, the derived sample has been divided into three subsamples: (B _T ? V _T )₀ < ?0.2, ?0.2 < (B _T ? V _T )₀ < ?0.1, and ?0.1 < (B _T ? V _T )₀ < 0, younger than 100, 100?C200, and 200?C400 Myr, respectively. The spatial distribution of all 20 514 stars and the kinematics analyzed for more than 1500 stars with radial velocities from the PCRV and RAVE catalogues are different for the subsamples, showing smooth rotations, shears, and deformations of the layer of gas producing stars with the formation of the Gould Belt, the Great Tunnel, the Local Bubble, and other structures within the last 200 Myr. The detected temporal variations of the velocity dispersions, solar motion components, Ogorodnikov-Milne model parameters, and Oort constants are significant, agree with the results of other authors, and show that it is meaningless to calculate the kinematic parameters for samples of stars with uncertain ages or with a wide range of ages.     

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989–2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997–1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.