Parameter information from non-linear cosmological fields

We develop a general formalism for analysing parameter information from non-Gaussian cosmic fields. The method can be adapted to include the non-linear effects in galaxy redshift surveys, weak lensing surveys and cosmic velocity field surveys as part of parameter estimation. It can also be used as a test of non-Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background. Generalizing maximum-likelihood analysis to second order, we calculate the non-linear Fisher information matrix and likelihood surfaces in parameter space. To this order we find that the information content is always increased by including non-linearity. Our methods are applied to a realistic model of a galaxy redshift survey, including non-linear evolution, galaxy bias, shot-noise and redshift-space distortions to second order. We find that including non-linearities allows all of the degeneracies between parameters to be lifted. Marginalized parameter uncertainties of a few per cent will then be obtainable using forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys.     

The chronology of a large ice-dammed lake and the Barents–Kara Ice Sheet advances, Northern Russia

Beach and shoreface sediments deposited in the more than 800-km long ice-dammed Lake Komi in northern European Russia have been investigated and dated. The lake flooded the lowland areas between the Barents–Kara Ice Sheet in the north and the continental drainage divide in the south. Shoreline facies have been dated by 18 optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates, most of which are closely grouped in the range 80–100 ka, with a mean of 88±3 ka. This implies that that the Barents–Kara Ice Sheet had its Late Pleistocene maximum extension during the Early Weichselian, probably in the cold interval (Rederstall) between the Brørup and Odderade interstadials of western Europe, correlated with marine isotope stage 5b. This is in strong contrast to the Scandinavian and North American ice sheets, which had their maxima in isotope stage 2, about 20 ka. Field and air photo interpretations suggest that Lake Komi was dammed by the ice advance, which formed the Harbei–Harmon–Sopkay Moraines. These has earlier been correlated with the Markhida moraine across the Pechora River Valley and its western extension. However, OSL dates on fluvial sediments below the Markhida moraine have yielded ages as young as 60 ka. This suggests that the Russian mainland was inundated by two major ice sheet advances from the Barents–Kara seas after the last interglacial: one during the Early Weichselian (about 90 ka) that dammed Lake Komi and one during the Middle Weichselian (about 60 ka). Normal fluvial drainage prevailed during the Late Weichselian, when the ice front was located offshore.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

A new pattern for the north–south asymmetry of sunspots

We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.     

One zone modeling of irregular variability of stellar convective envelope

One zone modeling of the irregular variability of red super-giants is intended with regard to the nonlinear coupling of finite amplitude pulsation with convection. The nonlocal mixing length is employed for the evaluation of the convective flux, the turbulent pressure and the turbulent power of temperature fluctuations. The radial pulsation and the Boussinesq convection are assumed for simplicity. The one zone is defined as the layer having the entropy maximum and the minimum at the bottom and at the top, respectively. The quasi-adiabatic approximation is consistent with this definition in fixing the zone to the same mass range. The spatial derivatives are evaluated under the assumption of homologous changes with the equilibrium homologous parameters. Then, a set of 6 simultaneous first order nonlinear ordinary differential equations are obtained as the one zone representation of the irregular variability of the convective envelope.     

A comparison of theoreticalCIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s ² S - 3p ² P, 2p ² P - 3s ² S, and 2p ² S - 3d ² D transitions inCiv between 312 and 420 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on boardSkylab. The potential usefulness of theCIV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.