Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.     

An experimental study on non-linear progressive wave-induced dynamic stresses in seabed

In this study, the dynamic stresses within the seabed induced by non-linear progressive waves were explored through a series of hydraulic model tests on a movable bed within a wave flume. By comparing Stokes’ 2nd-order wave theory with the theory of wave-induced dynamic stresses within the seabed as proposed by Yamamoto et al. [1978. On the response of a poro-elastic bed to water waves. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 87 (1), 193–206.] and Hsu and Jeng [1994. Wane-induced soil response in an unsaturated anisotropic seabed of finite thickness. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics 18, 785–807], the experimental results show that the pressure on the seabed surface, the pore water pressure within the seabed as well as the vertical and the horizontal stresses are all smaller than their theoretical values. If we were to obtain the characteristics of seabed soil, the analytical solution of Hsu and Jeng [1994. Wane-induced soil response in an unsaturated anisotropic seabed of finite thickness. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics 18, 785–807] might agree to the simulation of the wave-induced effective stresses and shear stress in the sandy seabed. A different phase shift exists among all the three soil stresses. Their influences on the three dynamic stresses within seabed soil are important for seabed stability, and can be used in the verification of numerical models. In the whole, the non-linear progressive waves and the naturally deposited seabed are found to have a strong interaction, and the behavior of the induced dynamic stresses within the seabed is very complicated, and should be investigated integrally.     

Effects of presence of a circumpolar region on buoyancy-driven circulation

Effects of the presence of a circumpolar region on buoyancy-driven circulation are investigated by using an idealized numerical ocean model. Comparison of circulation and meridional density (heat) transport is made between a closed ocean and an ocean with a cyclic gap near its southern boundary. The presence of the circumpolar region leads to disconnection of the meridional overturning across the circumpolar region. And the circumpolar eastward flow reaches the bottom of the ocean. It is essential for this that the pycnocline is deeper than the bottom of the gap. Since the amount of the mass transported northward must return southward at the levels deeper than the bottom of the cyclic gap, the weak stratification, hence weak vertical geostrophic shear, at the deeper levels leads to inactive communication across the circumpolar region. Meridional heat transport across the circumpolar region is made mainly by horizontal diffusion for the ocean with the cyclic gap, while the contribution of the advection is dominant for the closed ocean. Sensitivity of meridional heat transport to change in horizontal diffusivity is studied. The meridional heat transport for the ocean with the cyclic gap is more sensitive than for the closed ocean. The change in heat transport occurs not only in the circumpolar region but also in the rest of the ocean. It is suggested that subgrid scale phenomena, especially mesoscale eddies, in the circumpolar region controls the whole ocean to a great extent.     

Evidence for sinistral strike-slip deformation in The Solomon Island arc

During the SOPACMAPS 2 crusie carried out by IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer) and ORSTOM (Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le dévelopement en Coopération) on theR/V L'Atalante, in the Central Solomon Arc area, multibeam bathymetric and imagery data and single-channel seismic reflection profiles were collected from an area of about 3500 km², to evaluate regional tectonics. Structural data geophysical profiles interpretation provide evidence for left-lateral transtensional tectonics on the southern edge of the Central Solomon Trough. This transtensional deformation is represented by faulting, block tilting, and rhombohedral deformation. The regional geology and the analysis of the sedimentary cover allow us to demonstrate that this tectonic occurred in two different phases during Oligocene to Miocene and Pliocene to Pleistocene times.     

On the geologic structure of the Explora Escarpment (Weddell Sea,Antarctica) revealed by satellite and Shipboard data evaluation

Bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data from Antarctic expeditions with RV POLARSTERN and satellite altimeter data from the Geosat Geodetic Mission are analysed using methods from geostatistics and geophysical inverse theory.The Explora Escarpment represents the edge between the Antarctic Continental Shelf and the Weddell Abyssal Plain. It is an important link in the reconstruction of Gondwana breakup, but a feature as large as the 2000 m deep Wegener Canyon was only discovered in 1984, when extensive bathymetric, gravimetric, and magnetic surveys with RV POLARSTERN began.Geostatistics, the theory of regionalized variables, is applied to integrate dense surveys of Wegener Canyon and sparse observations in adjacent areas into maps with full coverage of the 230 km by 330 km area at 10°–20° W/70°–72° S. The resultant highresolution bathymetric and gravity maps reveal detailed structures of the Explora Escarpment. Using geophysical inversion, the gravity terrain effect is calculated. Satellite data are used for their better coverage, but have much lower resolution. Nevertheless, the structures of Wegener Canyon and other more prominent features appear with surprisingly good correlation also in the Geosat altimeter data. While it was initially supposed that Wegener Canyon is purely an erosional structure, the magnetic map now provides evidence of the canyon's tectonic origin.     

Effects of benthic biology on bottom boundary layer processes, Dry Tortugas Bank, Florida Keys

 An instrumented tetrapod was deployed for three weeks on the Dry Tortugas Bank at a depth of 26 m in February 1995. Bottom roughness was dominated by shrimp burrows and worm mounds with rms roughness amplitudes ranging from 0.47 to 1.75 cm. Logarithmic velocity profiles show apparent total roughness heights ranging from 0.30 to 1.45 cm, values consistent with observed biological roughness. The bed sediments were weakly bound by an algal crust at the sediment–water interface. When this bound layer was scraped away by a mooring that was accidentally dragged, sharp-crested wave-induced ripples appeared within the resulting swath. We conclude that physically induced roughness is biologically suppressed, but if dominant, would be significantly higher than the prevailing biological roughness.