Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

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The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

     

Oil pollution of the anabranches of the Ob river on the territory of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra

An analysis is made of the oil pollution of the Ob river waters using a long-term (1993–2013) hydrochemical monitoring of oil fields in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Contents of oil hydrocarbons (OHC) were determined in 4277 samples from the main Ob channel, and in 7076 samples from its anabranches by using infrared spectrometry. An increase in MAC (0.05 mg/dm³) was observed in 28% of the samples from the main channel, and in 32% from the anabranches. The total percentage of samples with an extremely high (> 50 MAC) and high (30–50 MAC) pollution level made up 0.3% of the samples for the anabranches, and 0.1% for the main channel. Maximum pollution was revealed in the eastern part of Okrug, from its eastern boundary to the mouth of the Trom’egan river which is associated with a considerable number of accidents on the pipelines within the Nizhnevartovskii district. The upper and lower quantiles in the most polluted anabranches, Pasl and Bagras, are 0.03–01.7 and 0.032–0.16 mg/dm³, respectively, whereas in the main Ob channel they vary from 0.022 to 0.065 mg/dm³ (0.4–1.2 MAC). The methods of geoinformatics and mathematical statistics were used to assess a dependence of OHC on the number of pollution sources (well clusters, and the area of oil spills) in zones at different distances from the river channels. By calculating the Spearman correlation coefficients, it was shown that OHC contents are dependent mainly on the number of wells, and on the area of oil spills located at less than 2 km from the channels.     

A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the...     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

Modeling preferential flow in reactive barriers: implications for performance and design

Reactive barriers are passive and in situ ground water treatment systems. Heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity (K) within the aquifer-reactive barrier system will result in higher flux rates, and reduced residence times, through portions of the barrier. These spatial variations in residence time will affect the treatment capacity of the barrier. A numerical flow model was used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in K on preferential flow through barriers. The simulations indicate that the impact of heterogeneities in K will be a function of their location and distribution; the more localized the high K zone, the greater the preferential flow. The geometry of the reactive barrier will also strongly influence flow distribution. Aquifer heterogeneities will produce greater preferential flow in thinner barriers compared to thicker barriers. If the barrier K is heterogeneous, greater preferential flow will occur in thicker barriers. The K of the barrier will affect the flow distribution; decreasing the K of the barrier can result in more even distribution of flow. Results indicate that less variable flow will be attained utilizing thicker, homogeneous barriers. The addition of homogeneous zones to thinner barriers will be effective at redistributing flow only if installed immediately adjacent to both the up- and downgradient faces of the barrier.     

Applying personal carbon trading: a proposed ‘Carbon,Health and Savings System’ for British Columbia,Canada

Addressing climate change requires the synergy of technological, behavioural and market mechanisms. This article proposes a policy framework that integrates the three, deploying personal carbon trading as a key element within a policy portfolio to reduce personal carbon footprints. It draws on policy and human motivation literatures that address the behavioural changes that may be needed in the context of a long-term threat such as climate change. This proposal builds on an analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax, international examples of carbon pricing instruments and strategies for behavioural change such as social networks, loyalty management, mobile apps and gamification. Interviews were conducted with experts in financial services, energy conservation and clean technology, as well as with specialists in climate, health and taxation policy. Their input, together with a review of the theoretical literature and practical case studies, informed the proposed design of a Carbon, Health and Saving System for promoting individual engagement and collective action by linking long-term climate mitigation measures with short-term personal and social goals, including health, recreation and social reinforcement.

Policy Relevance

This article identifies areas for climate policy innovation and recommends policies that can support, promote and enable personal carbon budgeting and collective action. Although this study is focused on British Columbia, both the input provided by key opinion leaders and the proposed framework are applicable to other jurisdictions.

This policy proposal shows how personal carbon trading could work in the context of a Canadian province with an existing climate mitigation policy. It also specifies a minimum viable product approach to establishing the economic, social and technological foundations for personal carbon trading.

The Carbon, Health and Saving System identifies the technologies and stakeholders needed to implement personal carbon trading, and offers the possibility of motivating a widespread conscious human response in the event that carbon taxation proves insufficient to generate economic adaptation in a changing climate.     

Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic history of the Lake Baikal depression and formation of its unique biodiversity

Independent methods of geological and molecular-biological chronologies have made it possible to define generally corresponding stages in the geological and biological evolution of the environments and communities of Lake Baikal since the Late Cretaceous, i.e., during the last 70 myr. All the abiotic elements drastically changed during geological evolution, with destruction of existing and formation of new natural complexes. Nevertheless, some specific zones retained relicts of former settings. The resulting present-day natural complex includes elements of different ages and geneses. Similar to different natural zones of the present-day Earth, which are populated by different biocoenoses, stages in the development of abiotic elements are also characterized by different faunal and floral assemblages. Some taxa were replaced by others, and the resulting aqueous biota of Lake Baikal includes different-age and ecologically different elements. The oldest groups of Baikal organisms appeared approximately 70 Ma ago, although the largest proportion of the lake biota started forming 4–3 Ma ago in response to the most drastic changes in the abiotic elements of the environment. The youngest taxa appeared 1.8 to 0.15 Ma ago, i.e., during the period when superdeep lake environments and mountainous glaciations were developing. The chronological coincidence of main stages in development of abiotic and biotic elements of the nature indicates their relationships. Particular transformations of abiotic elements and the probable mechanism of their influence on the evolution of living communities are also considered.     

Mineral waters of the projected specially protected natural territory “Istoki Amura”

We examine the various types of mineral waters occurring on the projected specially protected transboundary natural territory “Istoki Amura”, on the Hentei-Dauria neotectonic high. We suggest the pattern of rational utilization of the mineral springs according to the nature conservation status of the terrain (nature reserves, national parks, and public access areas).     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Some basic notions in geographical synthesis

Modern geography is based on ecological thinking. In this paper some geoecological notions are discussed: the scales and levels regarding spatial magnitude and complexity, the “hierarchy” of landscape units and espcially the scale of time and the concept of the supper-imposing “stamps”. This last mentioned concept is very important in relation to the problem regarding regionalization and its possibilities. Three “stamps” are recognized: 1. the substrate, 2. the climatic conditions, 3. the human (noötic) influence. Holistic regionalization in which all elements (including the human influences) are telling to full advantage, is unsatisfactory.