A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

Tourmaline Composition of the K??lada? Au Deposit, U?ak, Turkey

Please refer to the attachment(s) for more details     

Segmental closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean: Insight from detrital geochronology in the East Transbaikalia Basin

The Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean extended between the Siberian and Amur–North China continents.The timing and modalities of the oceanic closure are widely discussed.It is largely accepted that the ocean closed in a scissor-like manner from southwest to northeast(in modern coordinates),though the timing of this process remains uncertain.Recent studies have shown that both western(West Transbaikalia)and eastern(Dzhagda)parts of the ocean closed almost simultaneously at the Early–Middle Jurassic boundary.However,little information on the key central part of the oceanic suture zone is available.We performed U-Pb(LA-ICP-MS)dating of detrital zircon from wellcharacterized stratigraphic sections of the central part of the Mongol-Okhotsk suture zone.These include the initial marine and final continental sequences of the East Transbaikalia Basin,deposited on the northern Argun-Idemeg terrane basement.We provide new stratigraphic ages for the marine and continental deposits.This revised chronostratigraphy allows assigning an age of~165–155 Ma,to the collisionrelated flexure of the northern Argun-Idemeg terrane and the development of a peripheral foreland basin.This collisional process took place 5 to10 million years later than in the western and eastern parts of the ocean.We demonstrate that the northern Argun-Idemeg terrane was the last block to collide with the Siberian continent,challenging the widely supported scissor-like model of closure of the MongolOkhotsk Ocean.Different segments of the ocean closed independently,depending on the initial shape of the paleo continental margins.     

Introduced marine organisms as habitat modifiers

Introductions of non-indigenous species (NIS) are mostly discussed through their impact on biodiversity. However, NIS can also act as ecosystem engineers, influencing the habitat itself, positively or negatively, directly or indirectly, which should be included when making risk assessments. Special concern should be given to changes in ecological services provided by the ecosystem. Physically, NIS may affect the substrate itself, or alter habitat architecture, indirectly influencing water movements, sediment accumulation, and light conditions. Chemical changes brought upon by NIS occur both on small and large scales, some having positive effects on ecosystem services, others can perturb epibionts. Furthermore, NIS may negatively affect natural resources, aquaculture or create fouling communities, all resulting in a negative impact on economics. However, if removed, already established NIS can be used as bioremediators, having a positive effect on different ecosystems. Using NIS for habitat management may be economically profitable, but could affect the habitat adversely.     

Recolonization and recovery dynamics of the macrozoobenthos after sand extraction in relict sand bottoms of the Northern Adriatic Sea

The long-term effects of sand extraction on macrozoobenthic communities were investigated in an offshore area in the Northern Adriatic Sea characterised by relict sands formed during the last Adriatic post-glacial transgression. Surveys were carried out before, during and 1, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30 months after extraction at three impacted and seven reference stations. The operations did not influence the physical characteristics of the sediment, but they caused almost complete defaunation at dredged sites. Univariate and multivariate analyses highlighted that the macrozoobenthic community responses to the dredging operations were (1) a rapid initial recolonisation phase by the dominant taxa present before dredging, which took place 6-12 months after sand extraction; (2) a slower recovery phase, that ended 30 months after the operations, when the composition and structure of the communities were similar in the dredged and reference areas. This pattern of recolonisation-recovery fits well with the commonly encountered scenario where the substratum merely remains unchanged after marine aggregate extraction.     

Cell and tissue biomarkers in mussel, and histopathology in hake and anchovy from Bay of Biscay after the Prestige oil spill (Monitoring Campaign 2003)

In order to assess the biological effects of the Prestige oil spill (POS), mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis), European hake (Merluccius merluccius) and European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) were sampled between April and September 2003 in various geographical areas of Bay of Biscay: Galicia, Central Cantabrian and East Cantabrian. In mussels, several cell and tissue biomarkers were measured: peroxisome proliferation as induction of acyl-CoA oxidase (AOX) activity, lysosomal responses as changes in the structure (lysosomal volume density, V(V(L)), surface-to-volume ratio, S/V(L), and numerical density, N(V(L))) and in membrane stability (labilization period, LP), cell type replacement as relative proportion of basophilic cells (volume density of basophilic cells, V(V(BAS))) in digestive gland epithelium, and changes in the morphology of digestive alveoli as mean luminal radius to mean epithelial thickness (MLR/MET). Additionally, flesh condition index (FCI) and gonad index (GI) were measured as supporting parameters. In hake and anchovy, liver histopathology was examined to determine the prevalence of parasites, melanomacrophage centers, non-specific lesions (inflammatory changes, atrophy, necrosis, apoptosis), early non-neoplastic toxicopathic lesions (i.e., hepatocellular nuclear polymorphism), foci of cellular alteration, benign and malignant neoplasms. In mussels, AOX induction was noticeable in April except in Galicia. LP values were low in all the geographical areas studied, indicating disturbed health, especially in Galicia. Alike, lysosomal enlargement was observed in most stations as shown by the extremely low S/V(L) values. V(V(BAS)) and MLR/MET values were markedly high. Overall, employed biomarkers detected exposure to toxic chemicals and disturbed health in mussels from Bay of Biscay, with impact decreasing from April to September. Although hepatocellular nuclear polymorphism and nematode parasitization in fish liver were remarkably prominent in some areas, they cannot be hitherto related to POS, since we lack historical data to determine whether the prevalences found were normal or significantly raised after POS.     

Spatial and temporal changes in benthic communities of the Galician continental shelf after the Prestige oil spill

Two years after the Prestige oil spill (POS) an assessment of the effects on benthic fauna was carried out using the data obtained in five multidisciplinary surveys. Otter trawl, beam trawl, suprabenthic sled and box corer were used to study the main benthic compartments, along eight transects perpendicular to the coastline. Beam trawl was also employed to quantify the amount of tar aggregates on the continental shelf. No significant correlations between tar aggregates and species richness, biomass and diversity of benthic communities were found. This result was corroborated when the role of depth, season, latitude and sediment characteristics was examined by canonical ordination, in which POS-related variables had low influence on spatial distribution patterns. Depth and sediment grain diameter profoundly influence epibenthic communities. Sediment organic content is a third key variable for the infaunal, suprabenthic and lower-sized epibenthic communities, but not for the larger epibenthic communities. Nevertheless, a decrease in the densities of several epibenthic indicators was detected the first year after spill, followed by a noteworthy recovery in 2004. Non-macroscopic toxicity and some oceanographic agents are suggested as possible causes of these shifts.     

Short-term effects of the prestige oil spill on the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus)

We have monitored the distribution, population status, breeding success, turnover rate and diet of a Peregrine Falcon population in Bizkaia (North of Spain) since 1997. On the 13th November 2002, the tanker Prestige sunk off La Coruña (NW Spain) causing an oil spill that affected the whole of the Cantabrian Coast and the Southwest of France. The total number of birds affected by the Prestige oil spill was expected to be between 115,000 and 230,000, some of them raptors. The loss of clutches during the incubation period increased significantly and was correlated with the loss of females. Moreover, the turnover rate of the population increased from 21% to 30%. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the eggs, collected from five nests after they were deserted, ranged from 21.20 ng/g to 461.08 ng/g, values which are high enough to cause the death of the embryos and poisoning of adult birds. The effects of pollution reached inland since some inland-breeding falcons prey on shorebirds that use rivers during their migratory flights. As the Prestige oil spill has clearly resulted in increased rates of adult mortality and reduced fertility, we suggest that the environmental authorities urgently undertake measures aimed at protecting the Peregrine Falcon in Bizkaia.     

统计物理,孕震过程及地震危险性（三）

2 在地震危险性估计中的应用至今我们已经集中讨论了如何解释地球上大范围的地震现象和孕震断层现象这一基本问题。在这一部分中,我们将考虑