On one possibility of studying the cyclonic regime

The dynamics of some characteristics of a cyclonic situation (cyclonic regime) of the northwestern Pacific cyclonic zone is studied. The characteristics that are considered are the density of cyclonic energy at a point (intensity) and the power over a given area. In the model, the intensity at a point is defined as the sum of all intensities of preceding cyclones, with consideration for their spatial and temporal separation from the given point. Power for a given moment and a given area is defined as the sum of intensities over this area. Cyclonically active seasons are considered. The dynamics of the power was estimated for areas of different size. It is shown that the point values of cyclonic intensity, at the times of their maximum, are statistically related to one another by a negative power-law dependence. Periodicity is observed in the time evolution of the power in different areas.     

Prediction of hydrological phenomena using self-organizing mathematical models

The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration (MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment of short samplings. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

The choice of a dynamico-stochastic model for ocean monitoring — A compromise between the accuracy and cost of computations

In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Processes Causing the Temporal Changes in Si/N Ratios of Nutrient Consumptions and Export Flux during the Spring Diatom Bloom

Two processes are generally explained as causes of temporal changes in the stoichiometric silicon/nitrogen (Si/N) ratios of sinking particles and of nutrient consumption in the surface water during the spring diatom bloom: (1) physiological changes of diatom under the stress of photosynthesis of diatom and (2) differences of regeneration between silicon and nitrogen. We investigated which process plays an important role in these changes using a one-dimensional ecosystem model that explicitly represents diatom and the other non-silicious phytoplankton. The model was applied to station A7 (41°30′ N, 145°30′ E) in the western North Pacific, where diatom regularly blooms in spring. Model simulations show that the Si/N ratios of the flux exported by the sinking particles at 100 m depth and of nutrient consumptions in the upper 100 m surface water have their maxima at the end of the spring diatom bloom, the values and timings of which are significantly different from each other. Analyses of the model results show that the differences of regeneration between silicon and nitrogen mainly cause the temporal changes of the Si/N ratios. On the other hand, the physiological changes of diatoms under stress can hardly cause these temporal changes, because the effect of the change in the diatom's uptake ratio of silicon to nitrogen is cancelled by that in its sinking rate.     

A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

The fate of dumped sediments monitored by a high-resolution multibeam echosounder system,Weser Estuary,German Bight

With the development of high-resolution multibeam echosounder systems (MBES) for surveying shallow-water areas a new tool is available to monitor rapid changes in seabed morphology as, e.g., caused by the dumping of dredge spoil in coastal waters. In this study, four data sets of repeated bathymetric surveys with a MBES were processed and analyzed. The data were collected in a 1.94-km² dumping site in the outer Weser Estuary (German Bight). Between June and December 1998, 2.6 million m³ of dredged sediment were deposited there. The bathymetric maps generated in the course of this study reveal features such as subaqueous dunes, scour holes, and mounds of dumped dredge spoil. The mean water depth decreased by about 1 m during the dumping period. Furthermore, difference grids showing changes in sediment volume allowed a calculation of the sediment budget for the monitored area. After a time period of only 5 months, 0.5 million m³ of the originally dumped 2.6 million m³ of dredge spoil had already been removed from the dumping site.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Mean current velocity measurement from a movable base

This paper discusses the possibility of measurement of the current velocity vector characteristics averaged over the time of continuous regular down-up probings from a moving carrier. The measurements can be carried out either from a moving vessel or from a helicopter, floating on or hovering above the sea surface. As an illustration for the suggested technique,in situ observations compiled by a free-component (±XYZ) VEGA-3 probe in the Guiana current region in March 1990 are provided. Comparison of the results with buoy data shows good agreement within the accuracy limits of the instruments employed.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Fine structure of the temperature field and the transfrontal exchange in the East Kamchatka current

CTD data are used to study the relationship between the temperature field fine structure and the location of the frontal zones and synoptic eddies in the region adjacent to the eastern coast of the Kamchatka peninsula. High levels of fine structure activity were observed in the frontal zone of the East Kamchatka current and in the peripheries of anticyclonic eddies. Estimates of the coefficient of the horizontal turbulent exchange and the transfrontal (lateral) heat flux are derived.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.